Myagric: Spinning Enterprises Are Weighed Forward And Feasible In March.

The 3 day Sino US trade talks ended on the 9 th.

The Ministry of Commerce spokesman said on the 10 th that the two sides have actively implemented the important consensus of the two heads of state, and conducted extensive, in-depth and detailed exchanges on trade issues and structural issues of common concern.

Next, the two sides will push forward the consultation work according to the original plan, and the two sides are maintaining close contacts on the arrangement of consultation.

If this good news comes out, does it mean that the market will be ready in the next year, or will the order come to a small climax?

Low output

2016-2018 years of cloth production statistics in China

From Figure 1, we can see that the output of cloth in China has dropped significantly in 2018.

The output of 18 years and 1-11 months is only 4 billion 820 million meters, far below the average of 6 billion 70 million meters in 17 years.

Even the maximum output of a single month in 18 years is 5 billion 160 million meters, which is almost the same as the minimum in 2017.

On the one hand, the 18 year is a year of strict environmental protection. Environmental protection is being carried out in various regions, weaving factories are being shut down and rectified.

On the other hand, terminal demand is weak, and traders' purchasing confidence is not enough.

Cotton production statistics in China in 2016-2018 years

According to my agricultural product net, compared with 17 years, the output of cotton cloth in China is inevitably decreasing in 2018.

The main reasons are as follows: 1. Orders are reduced.

Sino US trade friction, which raises concerns about raising tariffs, will increase the cost of procurement from China, which will lead to evaporation of orders in the long run.

2, conventional varieties are abundant, and goods are slow.

As we all know, the main quantities of conventional varieties in weaving factories are usually produced by weaving mills in order to prepare for a rainy day.

This year, regular varieties have been flooded, and a large factory has sold several times at any cost.

3, price competition is fierce and profits are thin.

In order to take the goods and return the funds, weaving factories take price war. Other weaving factories have no advantage in the price war, so they have to make changes and make other varieties, such as polyester cotton.

To sum up, the output of grey cloth in 2018 has been the lowest in nearly three years for various reasons. For next year, the pressure on stock reduction is relatively reduced, or it will be a good opportunity for Jedi to fight back.

But as my agricultural product network analysis, the shortage of orders is the main reason for the sharp decline in capacity.

Post year practice of de stocking

From historical data, every year, we will meet the small climax of inventory coming and going.

My agricultural product network thinks that there are several reasons: 1, vacation and stop production.

During the Spring Festival holiday, all walks of life are on vacation, weaving machines are basically shut down, printing and dyeing plants are closed, logistics companies are closed, production and shipments are restricted, resulting in concentrated shipping after years.

2, the order is postponed before the holiday.

The production plan of some weaving factories is full, and the order time is limited, which can only be delivered after a year.

In short, it is inevitable to go to the stock market later in the year, but it seems that the chemical reaction is the root of the inventory.

Stronger renminbi exchange rate

19 only 10 days after the start of the year, the yuan also changed its usual state of decline and fall. It opened the road of appreciation, and appreciated by 1.2% compared with the end of last year.

In January 10th, the RMB exchange rate continued to rise.

On the same day, the offshore and offshore RMB exchange rate rose to 6.80 points against the US dollar.

The main reason for the appreciation of the renminbi is that the Sino US trade talks are good.

The appreciation of RMB will raise the cost of textiles and clothing enterprises, and China's international competitiveness will be impacted, to a certain extent, it is not conducive to the export of textiles and clothing.

The market of grey cloth is very treacherous. Even if there is positive effect of Sino US negotiation, there is also a negative effect of RMB exchange rate strengthening.

In short, the textile industry will continue to bear heavy loads ahead of schedule.