In 2018, China'S Economic Report Card Came Out. The Textile Industry Withstood Pressure And Became The Backbone Of "Maintaining Stability".

Yesterday, the 2018 Chinese economic report card was released. In January 21st, the Information Office of the State Council held the national economic performance conference in 2018. The director of the National Bureau of statistics, Ning Ji Zhe, said that the initial accounting was made. In 2018, the gross domestic product of 900309 yuan was calculated at comparable prices, representing an increase of 6.6% over the previous year, achieving an expected development target of around 6.5%. Under the complicated international and domestic environment, China's economic operation has achieved overall stability and steady progress. The main target of economic and social development is better achieved.


1.2018 China's economy: steady progress, happiness and sorrow


According to analysts, this report card is stressful and pleasant.


First, the total economic output exceeded 90 trillion yuan mark, GDP grew by 6.6% compared with the previous year. The market anticipation and the previous tasks are 6.5%. This shows that the economic operation is kept in a reasonable range, and the overall stable and steady progress has been showing continuously, and the main expected targets for development are better completed. But in the quarterly view, the quarter saw a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in the first quarter, an increase of 6.7% in the two quarter, an increase of 6.5% in the three quarter, a 6.4% increase in the fourth quarter, and a continuous decline, and set a new low since the 2 quarter of 2009.


Two, the import and export is stable and good, and the balance of international payments is basically balanced. The total import and export volume has exceeded 30 trillion yuan for the first time, and the scale of trade in goods has reached a record high, maintaining the number one in the world. The trade structure has been continuously optimized, the proportion of general trade imports and exports has increased, the proportion of exports of mechanical and electrical products has increased, foreign exchange reserves have been more than 3 trillion dollars, and the RMB exchange rate has basically been stable. However, the growth rate declined. From the perspective of classification projects, exports in 2018 were a drag on the economy. The contribution rate of net exports to economic growth was -8.6%, and it is expected to recover in 2019.


Three, investment continued to decline. In 2018, fixed asset investment increased 5.9% year-on-year, down 1.3 percentage points from 2017. This is also a new low since 2000, which is subject to early deleveraging and debt constraints. The growth rate of infrastructure investment has declined sharply. In 2018, the year-on-year growth in capital construction was only 3.8%, which was 15.2 percentage points lower than the 19% growth rate in 2017. Real estate development investment before high and low, facing downward pressure in 2019.


Four, domestic demand is gradually starting to become a stabilizer for the economy. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 76.2%, representing a 18.6 percentage point increase over the same period last year. In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.2% over the same period last year, up 0.1 percentage points from November.


Five, shift the industrial structure. The second industry has declined, and the third industry has improved significantly. Its contribution has exceeded 60%. The rapid growth of high-tech manufacturing, strategic emerging industries and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.7%, 8.9% and 8.1% respectively over the previous year. However, traditional manufacturing industries such as automobiles, railways, ships, aerospace and other spanport equipment did not perform well. The good news is that the second industry began to recover significantly in the fourth quarter of last year. In December, the electricity generation also rebounded to 6.2%, and the output in the upstream and middle reaches all rebounded.


Six, in 2018, China's annual consumer price index CPI increased by 2.1% over the previous year, and was at a moderate rise interval, less than 3% of the expected target. The balance between supply and demand of industrial consumer goods is generally stable. Many industrial consumer goods supply more than the total quantity, and higher standards are required to upgrade quality and upgrade quality, and better meet the consumption needs of the masses.


2. how do we see the decline of the industrial economy?


Then, since September 2018, the industrial growth rate has dropped to below 6%. Does this mean that industrial growth has slipped out of a reasonable range? In response, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of industry and information technology, responded in January 16th at the news conference of the new China office.


Since the second half of last year, especially after the three quarter, under the joint action of global economic slowdown, domestic active structural adjustment and risk prevention, industrial growth has slowed down for several months in a row, and there are some fluctuations. This is also true that the anxiety in the business sector has risen. How to look at this problem should be considered from the following aspects.


First of all, the overall operation of the industrial economy is maintained at a reasonable interval, and the actual operation results are even better than expected. When we set the goal of increasing the industrial added value in 2018, our target is 6%. In the month of 1~11, the national industrial added value increased by 6.3%. Even if the low growth rate was maintained in December, the objectives and tasks for the whole year were guaranteed.


In addition, in these indicators, there are some economic indicators are relatively good performance, such as efficiency indicators, the first 11 months of the national regulation of industrial enterprise profits increased by 11.8%, the main business income margin increased by 0.16 percentage points year-on-year. For example, in terms of investment, the investment in manufacturing industry increased by 9.5% over the first 11 months, with the improvement of business efficiency, the acceleration of energy saving and environmental protection, and the acceleration of the development of new industries. The growth rate of industrial investment in 2016 and 2017 was relatively low, and now there has been a marked improvement.


Second, some of the current short-term fluctuations are the impact of external factors, but some of them are also the costs that structural adjustment has to pay. In the long run, the fundamentals of China's industrial development are good, and the structural problems affecting the sustained and healthy development of the industry are being solved step by step. For instance, when we carry out the battle of pollution prevention and control, a large number of "scattered and dirty" enterprises will be cleared out, which will affect the industrial output value of some industries and regions to a certain extent, but the clearing of these enterprises will also make room for the advanced compliance capacity.


Third, our country's economy is in the continuous spanition period of new and old energy, and the pulling effect of some industries on growth is slowing down. But at the same time, we should also see that some new kinetic energy is steadily forming. Although in the short term, these new growth momentum is not enough to offset the impact of the decline of some industries in the past, but this positive factor is what we would like to see.


From the perspective of the overall industry, the high-tech manufacturing industry has maintained a relatively fast growth under the slowdown of the traditional manufacturing industry. In the first 11 months of 2018, the growth rate of high tech manufacturing added value reached 11.8%, significantly faster than the overall industrial growth rate, and its proportion in the overall industry increased by 13.6%. So we say that while we see the decline in the pulling effect of some traditional industries on the whole industrial economy, we must also see that the new kinetic energy is constantly being nurtured and the driving effect is constantly increasing. Of course, the task of structural adjustment is still very arduous. It should be noted that China's industrial economy is large and flexible enough to cope with all kinds of risks. In 2018, the scale of China's industrial added value is expected to reach 30 trillion yuan, and will continue to maintain the world's leading position. The output of more than 220 major industrial products continues to maintain the leading position in the world, and we have the most complete industrial system in the world. In particular, the development of digital economy, the "digital dividend" brought by the intelligent development of the digital networked manufacturing industry, makes us still full of confidence in the future development of the manufacturing industry.


3. textile industry has become the backbone of "maintaining stability".


In 2018, China's textile industry, with its accumulation and sedimentation for many years, withstood pressure and played a positive role in "steady employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment and stable expectations", and became the backbone of maintaining stable economic operation. Judging from the economic operation of China's textile industry in 2018 1~11, the domestic and foreign markets of textiles and clothing have performed well. The growth rate of industrial added value of textile enterprises above the national scale has increased at a low level, the quality and efficiency of the whole industry has been continuously improved, and the growth rate of whole industry investment has continued to rise, and the main indicators have been running smoothly.


Internal and external market performance is good.


Since 2018, China's textile and clothing market has seen a rapid growth. According to the National Bureau of statistics, retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 1 trillion and 200 billion yuan over the 1~11 months, an increase of 8.1% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points over the same period last year. This growth rate has been slowing down since June 2018, but it is still higher than the previous two years. Online retail continues to maintain rapid growth. Combined with recent data, the scale of online retailing continues to expand. The proportion of retail sales of physical online accounts for 8.3% of the total retail sales of consumer goods from 2015 in early November 2018 to 18.2% in the year. Among them, the online retail sales of apparel products nationwide increased by 21.2% over the same period 1~11, the growth rate was 3.2 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, but its growth rate has been slowing since the beginning of 2018.


Textile exports continued to pick up. According to China Customs express, exports of textiles and clothing totaled $276 billion 731 million in 1~12 months in 2018, an increase of 3.52% over the same period last year. The layout of the international market is more and more optimized. In 1~11 months, China's exports of textile raw materials and textiles to the United States, European Union and Japan increased by 8.8%, 2.9% and 3.5% respectively over the same period last year. Exports to the emerging markets along the "one belt and one road" in Vietnam and Indonesia grew well, and exports increased by 26.5% and 21.5% respectively over the same period last year.


Incremental growth and low growth


Textile industry added value continued to maintain low growth. In 2018 1~11 months, the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 3% over the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down 1.9 percentage points over the same period last year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the three quarter of 2018. Chemical fiber and terminal industry grew faster. Since 2018, the value added growth rate of chemical fiber industry has maintained steady and steady growth, from 0.5% in February to 8% in November, the growth rate is 5 percentage points higher than that in the textile industry. The growth rate of value-added in the textile industry is stable at about 8.2%, and its growth rate is 8.4% in 1~11 months. The growth rate of industrial added value in clothing and home textile industry is higher than that in the whole industry, but it continues to slow down, and its growth rate in 1~11 months is 4.5% and 3.8% respectively. The competitiveness of the domestic equipment market has been steadily improved, and the industrial added value of the supporting textile machinery industry has increased by 10.7% over the same period last year, which is 7.7 percentage points higher than that of the whole industry.


In the major categories of products, the growth of garment products has been maintained except for the decline in garment production. In 2018 1~11, the output of cloth, nonwovens and chemical fibers increased by 1.4%, 9.7% and 7.6%, respectively. The growth rate increased by 0.2, 9.1 and 4.5 percentage points respectively over the same period last year. The output of yarn and printing and dyeing fabrics increased 0.6% and 2.3%, respectively, and the growth rate slowed down 3.5 and 3.4 percentage points respectively.


Operation quality and efficiency improvement


The textile industry's profit growth is generally stable. In 2018 1~11, the total revenue of 37 thousand Textile Enterprises above Designated Size reached 5 trillion and 111 billion 750 million yuan, an increase of 4% over the same period last year. The growth rate slowed by 0.7 percentage points over the same period last year. The total realized profit was 249 billion 890 million yuan, an increase of 7.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points over the same period last year.


In the sub sectors, the profitability of the chemical fiber industry is stable. The total revenue and profit of the main business in the 1~11 months increased by 13.4% and 12.9% respectively. The profits of the garment industry were significantly increased, and the profit growth rate was 10.1%, which contributed 44.5% to the profits of the whole industry. Although the apparel industry's industrial added value growth slowed down and the output decreased, but through its quality and efficiency enhancement, the brand operation achieved good economic benefits, supporting the improvement of the whole industry's efficiency, the printing and dyeing industry's spanformation and upgrading progresses positively, and the total revenue and profit of main business increased by 3.7% and 11.9% respectively compared with the same period last year, and continued to pick up after reversing the negative profit growth trend in August.


The operation quality of textile industry is basically stable. In 1~11 months, the sales profit rate of textile enterprises above designated size was 4.9%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and the total assets turnover rate was 1.3 times / year, 0.1% faster than that of the same period last year; the income cost of 100 yuan main business was 88.4 yuan, down 0.1% compared to the same period last year; the three fee ratio was 7%; the asset negative debt rate was 55.1%, slightly higher than that of the same period last year, 0.5 percentage points, still in the reasonable range.


Investment growth continues to pick up


According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics in 2018 1~11, the total fixed assets investment in textile industry increased by 5.4% over the same period last year, while the growth rate was 0.9 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. However, it continued the good trend of the continuous growth of investment growth since 2018.


In the main sub sectors, the textile industry investment increased by 4.9% over the same period last year, the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. The investment in the chemical fiber industry increased by 34.9% over the same period last year, the growth rate increased by 17.4 percentage points over the same period last year, and has been growing at a high speed growth range of 20% or more for 8 consecutive months. The investment pattern of the clothing industry has been kept shrinking, with the investment volume decreasing by 1.9% compared with the same period last year, narrowing 3.8 percentage points compared with the first half of the year.