Steady Monetary Policy Does Not Mean Invariable.

In January 15th, financial data came out in 2018.

This day is also the day when the first batch of quasi funds fell to the ground in 2019, and it is expected to release about 750 billion yuan of funds.

The central economic work conference held recently pointed out that we should continue to implement a prudent monetary policy.

This means that stability is still the main keynote of monetary policy and liquidity will remain moderate.

However, there are market participants who interpret the current prudent monetary policy as loosely. They think that they have dropped 4 times in 2018, and have dropped 1 percentage points and released 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan since the beginning of the new year in 2019, which is actually a "wide currency".

But this is not the case.

At present, there are many targets for monetary policy, so we need to grasp the comprehensive balance.

We should closely focus on the three tasks of serving the real economy, preventing and controlling financial risks, and deepening financial reform. We must also handle the balance of steady growth, structural adjustment and risk prevention.

This means that the current monetary conditions can neither be too loose nor too tight. Instead, we should make appropriate pre adjustment and fine-tuning according to the changes of the situation.

Take the 2018 financial data just released, in order to prevent financial risks and standardize information management business, in 2018, off balance sheet financing fell sharply, which not only affected the M2 growth rate, but also reduced the growth of social financing scale.

Facing the tightening effect from outside the table, the active pre adjustment of fine tuning and timely opening of the front door is clearly a rational choice to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity.

The central bank began to take various measures earlier to encourage financial institutions to increase support for the real economy.

The annual data show that RMB credit has increased significantly, and bond financing has also been better.

On the whole, the liquidity of the banking system is reasonable and abundant, and the scale of money and credit and social financing has also increased moderately.

Looking at the first fall in 2019, although the rate of reduction is greater, it is 1 percentage points.

However, the implementation of this reduction will be implemented in two stages, which will suit the rhythm of the cash supply before the Spring Festival. On the other hand, it will replace the medium-term credit facility which will soon expire in the first quarter, and provide more long-term and low cost funds for the real economy, so that the total liquidity will remain reasonable and sufficient, while taking into account the internal and external equilibrium, it will help maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

Therefore, it is obviously a misreading to interpret this as the turning of monetary policy or flood irrigation.

At present, the economic operation of our country has changed steadily, the external environment has undergone profound changes, the pressure of economic downlink has increased, some enterprises are difficult to operate, the long-term accumulated risks are exposed, and some policy effects need to be further released.

Against this background, monetary policy needs to be more stable.

But maintaining stability is not static. Rather, we must grasp the total amount and provide adequate financial support for the real economy.

At the same time, flood irrigation can not be carried out, and the macro leverage ratio should be maintained basically stable.

In short, while meeting the needs of economic operation to maintain a reasonable range, we should alleviate the financing difficulties and financing problems of small and micro enterprises, guard against and defuse financial risks, and create an appropriate monetary and financial environment for structural reforms and high-quality development of supply side.