Will The Market Of Ethylene Glycol Rise After The Spring Festival?
By the end of January 30th, the ethylene glycol market had discussed the price of petroleum glycol at a price of 5035 yuan per ton, while coal glycol has been losing money.
The weakness of fundamentals has lasted for more than a month. Let's not mention the Spring Festival holiday. What we are concerned about is whether the market of ethylene glycol will rise after the holiday.
1, supply side (increased supply of domestic enterprises)
As of 30 days, the domestic ethylene glycol unit operation rate was 81%, the coal glycol unit operation rate was 74%, and domestic supply remained stable; however, the 380 thousand ton ethylene glycol unit of Sanjiang Petrochemical Company is expected to return to normal in recent days. The ethylene glycol utilization rate will rise to 84% in the next few days, and the daily supply will increase by 1 kiloton, and the overall supply to 26 thousand and 500 tons will increase significantly.
2, supply side (Port inventory is in storage)
As of 30 days, the MEG port in East China's main port area has a stock of about 924 thousand tons, an increase of 31 thousand tons over the previous period.
Among them, 60.7 tons in Zhangjiagang, an increase of 32 thousand tons over the previous period; 65 thousand tons in Ningbo, a decrease of 12 thousand tons over the previous period; 28 thousand tons in Shanghai and Jiaxing, a decrease of 5 thousand tons over the previous period; 138 thousand tons in Taicang and Changshu, an increase of 3 thousand tons over the previous period; 86 thousand tons in Jiangyin and Changzhou, an increase of 13 thousand tons over the previous period.
It is expected that the eastern port will arrive at about 251 thousand tons of cargo in the short term, and the port stock will be in a state of accumulation.
3, the demand side (a sharp decrease in demand).
At present, the production of polyester in January is estimated to be around 10 million 470 thousand tons. The capacity of parking and production reduction in 1-2 months is about 11 million 400 thousand tons, accounting for about 20.8% of the current production base 55 million tons.
Since last week, the downstream polyester storage has dropped significantly. Some small and medium-sized polyester enterprises even have zero inventory or lack of inventory.
Under the condition of low demand for weaving at the end of the end, polyester profit is acceptable. Late polyester enterprises may delay or cancel the maintenance plan.
Conclusion: supply is increasing, demand is decreasing, and how can the market of ethylene glycol go next? In considering the Spring Festival holiday, there is no demand in the market. After the return of the holiday, the recruitment problem of the terminal enterprises will be picked up, and the enterprises will start to pick up again. In the case of raw material cost, the crude oil will rise in the near term, and the raw materials of glycol must follow up. The cost increase and the overlay demand will be limited. This will help the ethylene glycol to complete the stage and build up a rebound.
How do we look at the Ps:2019 long line? We will come back later and chat slowly.
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