PTA Rebounding Is Overdraft Consumption? How Should The Weaving Enterprises Be Stocked After The Year?

PTA futures prices began to rebound in January. The main reason is that the stocking enthusiasm of the downstream weaving factories before the Spring Festival is heating up, resulting in a significant reduction in the stock pressure of the polyester plant. On the other hand, the delayed accumulation of the PTA market is expected to be delayed after part of the device is overhauled or restarted.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the low price of the stock market before the Spring Festival supports the future price of the futures, but after the Spring Festival, the storehouse is estimated to drag down the futures price.

Pet factory inventory decline

Since January, the international oil price has continued to rebound, giving the market stop signal. Most of the downstream polyester prices are at the lowest level since 2018, and the profit of polyester products is very low.

Weaving factories often have the habit of stocking before the Spring Festival, and in 2018, the business efficiency is relatively good, the funds are relatively abundant, and the stocking capacity is strong. Even though the market has a clear judgement on the difficulty of consumption in 2019, the sales of polyester factories have obviously improved since the beginning of January, and inventories have continued to decline.

By the end of January, most of the weaving mills began to take off, and the raw materials in Shengze, Wujiang had been stocked for about 30-40 days.

At present, the sharp decline in the stock of polyester factories is one of the main advantages of the market, which may affect the implementation of the maintenance plan during the Spring Festival, which is less than expected. The consumption of raw materials PTA exceeds expectations.

The total capacity of the PTA plant is 45 million 780 thousand tons and the load is 92.18%.

1, a PTA plant with a capacity of 1 million 400 thousand tons in East China was originally planned to stop for 7~10 days, and now plans to park for about a month.

2, Yangzi Petrochemical Company involved in the production capacity of 350 thousand tons of PTA device in November 1st parking due to reason, restart time postponed to March.

3, Hua Bin Petrochemical's PTA plant with capacity of 1 million 400 thousand tons is scheduled to be overhauled for 30 days at the end of January.

4, Peng Wei production capacity of 900 thousand tons of PTA device, January 26~27 has been restarted.

5. Dalian's PTA plant with a capacity of 2 million 250 thousand tons has been resumed.

PTA market uncertainty mainly comes from the start-up time of the downstream consumer market.

Before and after the Spring Festival in 2018, the enthusiasm of polyester was very high. However, after the Spring Festival, it was difficult to start the market because of the late arrival of workers. Until the end of March and early April, the high inventory of polyester products began to slow down.

Similarly, workers will arrive late in 2019. In order to deal with this situation, some weaving factories will speed up production before the Spring Festival. They already have a certain product inventory and can be understood as overdraft after the Spring Festival.

In addition, the results of the large scale storage before the Spring Festival are likely to be less than expected during the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the product inventory returned to a high level. However, after a large number of stockings before the Spring Festival, the inventory of raw materials is estimated to be the main raw material after the Spring Festival, so the enthusiasm for stock preparation after the Spring Festival will be limited.

Judging from the historical trend of PTA futures, prices continued to rise before the Spring Festival.

In the 2009-2018 years, except for 2014 and 2018, the price of PTA futures in other 8 years was all down before and after the Spring Festival.

Therefore, PTA price has good elasticity at present, but crude oil is still an important indicator of the market.