Can PTA Be "Flying High" If The Downstream Production And Sales Are Warming Up?

Recently, the PTA operating rate has been reduced to 80.52%, because Jiangyin Han BANG 2 million 200 thousand tons / year PTA device and Liwan 700 thousand tons / year PTA device stopped for inspection because of the reason, which brought impetus to PTA rebound, PTA futures market rebounded, and the trend of rising prices of downstream polyester keeps rising.

At this stage, the price of crude oil is rising and falling. The PX price of the cost side has declined slightly, but it still supports the PTA price.

Recently, the price of crude oil has rebounded under the stimulation of oil production reduction. At present, the price of WTI crude oil is about 55 dollars per barrel.

With the end of the US exemption period for the crude oil embargo in Iran, uncertainty in the supply of crude oil has gradually increased.

The peak of summer production of petrochemical companies in the northern hemisphere is approaching. Supply and demand resonance or crude oil prices have risen slightly in 3 and April.

But at present, the pressure of insufficient demand on the top of crude oil prices is still greater, and the probability of substantial breakthroughs in oil prices in the short term is low.

In terms of PX, prices are expected to maintain a weak trend and may be differentiated from the price trend of crude oil and naphtha.

Therefore, in the medium to short term, the cost side of PTA is difficult to continue to effectively break through the price support.

At present, the operating rate of PTA is about 80%, and the 600 thousand tons of Jialong petrochemical plant is heating up gradually. The 1 million 400 thousand tons of Hua Bin petrochemical company has been postponed until about March 10th.

The BP125 10000 ton PTA plant in Zhuhai is scheduled to start maintenance at the end of March for about 3 weeks. The HP Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand ton plan is overhauled for 7 days -10 days in March. The 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hengli petrochemical plant is scheduled to be overhauled for 15 days in March.

The demand for polyester and polyester in the lower reaches gradually resumed along with the Spring Festival.

Take polyester filament as an example, manufacturers returned to work smoothly after the Spring Festival in 2019 and returned to work faster than before.

The load rate of the latest polyester filament device has reached 91.92%, surpassing the summer and winter production peak in 2018, reaching the highest load level of PET plant in the past 5 years.

In terms of sales, after the Spring Festival, the average production and sale rate of polyester dropped to about 20%, but with the recovery of downstream enterprises' demand, the production and sale rate of polyester filament also increased.

The latest data of the production and sale of polyester filament is 120%, which has been greatly improved compared with the previous period, reaching the peak level of summer production in advance.

The price of terminal fabric has remained stable in recent years. According to the trend of Keqiao textile price index, the price of polyester and polyester cotton fabrics is at a high level compared with the same period last year. Even if the inflation factor is excluded, the absolute price will remain high.

Overall, the PTA plant has a relatively high start-up rate. In the short term, the PTA spot supply is relatively loose, and the downstream polyester manufacturers are in high load ahead of schedule. PTA stocks are still at a high level.

There is still time for the peak of summer clothing production, and the PTA price will not have much room for improvement in the short term.

From the cost point of view, crude oil prices still strong action, PX surface followed the trend of crude oil fluctuations, but under the influence of high inventory, the decline is significantly higher than the rise, which will make PTA short term cost support weakened.

Comprehensive judgment, in the short term, PTA prices will be dominated by oscillating weak trend.