The Explosion In Northern Jiangsu Has A Far-Reaching Impact, And Disperse Dyes Are On The Way To Raise Prices. The Boom Is Expected To Continue.

The explosion in Northern Jiangsu has a far-reaching impact. From the perspective of industry investment, we believe that the dye industry will re-enter the tight balance between supply and demand. Product prices are expected to continue to rise during the peak season of demand. Leading enterprises, Zhejiang Longsheng and run earth shares, will fully benefit from the industry boom.

Tianjiayi explosion in Subei park has far-reaching impact.

From the perspective of industry investment,

1) the industry competition pattern is optimized, the concentration degree is further enhanced, the capacity of other large enterprises is affected, and the incomplete industrial chain of small enterprises has greater impact, and some small businesses may gradually withdraw under the pressure of environmental protection.

2) the difficulty of new capacity increases, while the industry demand increases slightly with the textile service, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to be tight for a long time.

The gap between supply and demand of phthalamine is large.

Domestic demand of about 100 thousand tons, Tian Jia Yi production after the supply of only 85 thousand tons, there is a significant gap, coupled with the expectation that dealers store goods, the gap is even greater.

Zhejiang Longsheng benzene two amine production of 60 thousand tons, about 60% of the use of self, the remaining 40% sold.

Disperse dyes will boost prices.

The concentration of disperse dyes is also high, and the price increase of core intermediates will drive the price of disperse dyes to rise.

According to Zhuo Chuang consultation, some dye enterprises and middlemen have increased the price of disperse dyes.

At present, Zhejiang Longsheng, Ru Tu shares and Jihua Group have 13, 11 and 100 thousand tons of disperse dyes respectively, accounting for more than 60% of the total capacity. The leading enterprises have strong pricing power, and we expect that the price of disperse dyes will continue to improve.

The performance of leading companies is flexible.

Zhejiang Longsheng has 65 thousand tonnes of benzene diammonium (considering only 25 thousand tons of takeaway) and 130 thousand tons of disperse dye capacity. If the price is increased by 10 thousand yuan respectively, the company's performance elasticity is 200 million yuan and 900 million yuan respectively. If the price of diammonium is up to 100 thousand yuan and the dye price is increased by 10 thousand yuan, the company's performance is expected to increase by 2 billion yuan.

Risk factors:

Product prices are not as good as expected, and downstream demand is shrinking rapidly.

investment strategy

Disperse dyestuff products will usher in a rising channel again. Under the tight balance between supply and demand, the price of products will continue to rise, and the profits of leading enterprises will be greatly improved.

We recommend Zhejiang Longsheng and run soil shares with high upstream and downstream integration and high self-sufficiency rate of industrial chain.