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PTA The Processing Fee Is Even Higher. Is The Device Overhauled And Overhauled?

2019/4/3 20:28:00 8692

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"When it gets warm, it's the hardest part to rest." The market of PTA is like the Spring Festival, and it is always permeating the cool threads. Since the processing fee was broken in late March, it has always been at a high level. Xiaobian combed the installation of PTA and polyester in April, and discussed the trend of the market in April from the supply and demand side.

surface 14 Month PTA Maintenance losses

Unit: 10000 tons

Enterprise abbreviation	Annual capacity (10000 tons)	Planned parking date	Planned maintenance days	Overhaul loss capacity	Four Monthly loss	Remarks
Yanda Shanda	Three hundred and seventy-five	Three On December 26, it dropped 5.	Seven	One hundred and eighty-seven point five	One point zero seven
Yanda Shanda	Three hundred and seventy-five	Four On December 3, it dropped 5.	Seven	One hundred and eighty-seven point five	Three point seven five
Hengli petrochemical	Two hundred and twenty	Three 28 June	Fifteen	Two hundred and twenty	Six point nine one
Zhuhai BP	One hundred and twenty-five	Three 31 June	Twenty-one	One hundred and twenty-five	Seven point five zero
Tung Kun Jiaxing petrochemical	Two hundred and twenty	Four Month	Fifteen	Two hundred and twenty	Nine point four three	undetermined
Luoyang petrochemical	Thirty-two point five	Four Maintenance for 25 months	Forty-five	Thirty-two point five	Zero point four six
Tianjin petrochemical	Thirty-four	Four Monthly maintenance	Fifteen	Thirty-four	One point four six
Ya Dong petrochemical, Shanghai	Seventy-five	Four Late June	Two	Seventy-five	Zero point four three
Yisheng petrochemical	Two hundred	Four Monthly maintenance	Fifteen	Two hundred	Eight point five seven	undetermined
Fuhai creation	Four hundred and fifty	Four hundred and fifty 10000 tons load 8, 1 million 650 thousand tons long term parking		Two hundred and fifty-five	Twenty-one point eight six
Hua Bin petrochemical	Three hundred and twenty	One hundred and eighty Million tons long term parking		One hundred and eighty	Fifteen point four three
Yangzi Petrochemical	Thirty-five	Thirty-five Million tons long term parking		Thirty-five	Three
Total loss				One thousand seven hundred and fifty-one point five	Seventy-nine point eight seven
Loss start up rate					18.91%

Source: lung Chung

According to statistics of various sets of equipment overhaul statistics found by long Zhong information, it is found that the PTA loss in April is expected to be 798 thousand and 700 tons (see table above). It is estimated that the output of PTA will be 3 million 426 thousand tons in April, down 298 thousand tons compared with the output of 3 million 724 thousand tons in March. With the overhaul of many new installations, the overall operating rate in April is expected to drop to 81.09%, down 4.21 percentage points from the 85.3% operating rate in March, most of which are planned for overhaul.

chart 12019 year PTA Processing fee chart

Source: lung Chung

Due to the high PTA processing fee at the present stage, as of April 1st, the PTA processing fee has reached 1280 yuan / ton. Therefore, the enthusiasm of the enterprise installation is generally high, resulting in the delay of part of the planned maintenance. Among them, Fuhai set up the original plan to repair 4 million 500 thousand tons / ton in May, and the 650 thousand tons of equipment that Yizheng chemical fiber originally planned to overhaul in April, it is reported that the maintenance has been postponed.

At the same time, if Yisheng Ningbo 2 million tons and Tong Kun 2 million 200 thousand tons of equipment maintenance also has many uncertainties, once the high profit, delayed device maintenance, then the output of PTA in April will reach 3 million 600 thousand tons, the operating rate will return to 85.2% level, basically flat March. Therefore, according to the current maintenance plan, the market generally expects that the load will drop by 4.21 percentage points, but once the repair is aborted, the load fall will not be as good as expected, and it will not be a bad influence on the market.

surface 24 New polyester loss in June

Unit: 10000 tons

Enterprise abbreviation	Annual capacity	Planned parking date	Planned maintenance days	Overhaul loss capacity	Four New monthly loss	Remarks
Jiangnan	Thirty	Four The first ten days of a month	Fifteen	Fifteen	Zero point six two
Luoyang petrochemical	Ten	Four 20 June	Forty	Ten	Zero point two seven
Shihua synthetic fiber	Fifteen	Four 20 June	Forty	Fifteen	Zero point four one
Wuliangye	Fifteen	Two Month 28 -4 mid month	Fifty	Fifteen	-0.43	Four Restart in mid month
Total loss capacity				Fifty-five	Zero point eight seven
Loss start up rate					0.18%

Source: lung Chung

According to long Zhong information statistics: in April polyester repair strength is limited, the new loss is only 8 thousand and 700 tons. Based on the estimated operating rate of 90.22% at the end of March, it is estimated that the comprehensive load of polyester will be 90% in April, and the output will be 4 million 130 thousand tons, which is 1.4 percentage points lower than that of March.

By comparing the PTA and polyester loads, it is easy to see that the TA load is down 4.21% and the PET load is only down by 0.18.%. Therefore, it is deduced that in April, PTA will undergo a wave of the process of stock elimination.

surface 3 PTA Supply and demand balance sheet

Unit: 10000 tons

	Three month	Four Monthly E overhaul	Four Month E no maintenance
opening inventory	One hundred and seventeen	One hundred and thirty point one five	One hundred and thirty point one five
yield	Three hundred and seventy-two point four	Three hundred and forty-two point six	Three hundred and sixty
Import volume	Six	Five	Five
Total supply	Three hundred and seventy-eight point four	Three hundred and forty-seven point six	Three hundred and sixty-five
Polyester demand	Three hundred and fifty-eight point two five	Three hundred and fifty-three point one two	Three hundred and fifty-three point one two
Export volume	Seven	Six	Six
Aggregate demand	Three hundred and sixty-five point two five	Three hundred and fifty-nine point one two	Three hundred and fifty-nine point one two
Supply and demand gap	Thirteen point one five	-11.52	Five point eight eight
Ending inventory	One hundred and thirty point one five	One hundred and eighteen point six three	One hundred and thirty-six point zero three

According to the supply and demand balance sheet, in April, when the enterprises were overhauled according to the original plan, the supply pressure was reduced, the supply and demand were rebalanced too much, and the estimated 115 thousand and 100 tons of inventory were expected to be realized in that month. On the contrary, if the enterprises are delayed under the high processing fee, the total load will reach 85.2% in the same month. Basically, compared with March, there will be nearly 60 thousand tons of storage.