In April, PTA Entered The Centralized Maintenance Period.

Last week, five PTA spot market shock rose, PTA big factory price at 6600 yuan / ton self mention spanaction, PTA factory maintenance good market confidence, drive polyester production and sales rebounded sharply. The price of crude oil is rising steadily, and the PX price of the cost side is going to pick up. PTA night plate is in a strong concussion. In April, the PTA factory still has a maintenance plan, which still has a positive impact on the market. Will the price of PTA rise again?

PX new capacity increases substantially

On the cost side, the recent oil price and the empty factor are intertwined. The US crude oil will remain around the $60 barrel volatility, and the oil price will be limited. In March, the price trend of domestic PX market declined sharply, and the domestic PX utilization rate was more than 7. Hengli petrochemical PX new plant has been put into operation. The production capacity of the unit is as high as 4 million 500 thousand tons. The production capacity of the new plant has reached 2 million 250 thousand tons, and the supply of domestic PX has increased significantly.

In March, the price of PX's external market also dropped significantly. The closing price at the end of the month was 1024-1026 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 1043-1045 US dollars / ton CFR China, compared with the 30 month / month price at the end of 2. Although PX has a high correlation with the trend of PTA, the weakening of cost may have little impact on the negative impact of PTA in the context of PX's more profitable profits.

PTA device maintenance is more vigorous.

This year, in addition to the release of the remaining devices in Fuhai new year before the Spring Festival, only the PTA device of Shengda Chemical Plant in Sichuan is expected to be put into operation. The device was built a few years ago. It was expected to be put into operation in March this year, and it may be postponed to May. However, 4-5 months PTA device maintenance efforts are large, according to statistics, Hengli petrochemical, Zhuhai BP, Jiaxing petrochemical, Yi Sheng petrochemical and Fuhai Chuang and other large sets of equipment will face overhaul, if scheduled maintenance, PTA average operating rate will decline 8%-10%.

Even if the Sichuan Shengda device can be released in May, PTA supply will remain tight in the next two months. The number of domestic PTA stocks in the near future is about 3.5 days, and is expected to continue in April.

Polyester factory cash flow performance is good.

Judging from the volume of light textile city in the first quarter, the turnover of light textile in January and February this year is much lower than that in previous years. However, after March, it is obvious that the demand for the terminal is revival, and the textile and textile industry has been enlarged, and the production and sale of filament has been warmer. The boot rate of the terminal also reflects the prosperity of the downstream. The boot rate of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang plus bombs and ammunition has reached over 85%, which is already higher than that of the same period in history.

At present, from the perspective of cash flow, the cash flow of polyester products has been improved, and manufacturers have started to work vigorously under the background of higher profits. At present, polyester start-up load is at a high level of 90.1%, reaching the highest level in recent years.

To sum up, the domestic PTA has entered the centralized maintenance period, and the start-up load has dropped significantly. Downstream polyester cash flow performance is good, operating rate continues to rise. Cost side, Hengli PX has been put into operation gradually, and the maintenance price is expected. PX price has stabilized. Short term PTA trend is expected to be strong or strong. (source: Hongye futures, pioneer futures)