After The Closure Of The Park In Xiangshui, The Real Enterprises Remain Calm: The Dye "Buying" Is Cold To Raise The Price.

Compared with the excitement of the financial market, the performance of the entity enterprises should be calm.

According to the quotation provided by Zhuo Chuang, in April 8th, the mainstream price of the dispersed black ECT300% market was 42 yuan / kg to 44 yuan / kg.

After the Xiangshui bombing, the domestic dyestuff enterprises carried out two price adjustments in March 21st and the second half of the month respectively. Among them, the black ECT 300% rose from 44 yuan per kilogram to 60 yuan, and active black did not adjust the price.

The former is buying, the latter is selling, and buying is obviously not buying.

"At a price of 60 yuan per kilogram, few dye factories dare to get the goods at this price, which is too high."

A printing and dyeing industry in East China said in April 8th.

In contrast, the permanent closure of Xiangshui Chemical Industrial Park has a greater impact on the supply of acrylic acid industry. The domestic acrylic acid industry leader, Jiangsu Jurong, has 205 thousand tons of capacity in the park, and is expected to resume in the near future.

In twenty-first Century, the economic report reporter learned from a responsible person in charge of rehabilitation in Xiangshui that at present, the park has started the work of material pfer. Due to the large number of enterprises and the different dangerous levels of materials, the pshipment will continue for a period of time.

"It accounts for about 1/3 of the total capacity of Jurong in Jiangsu. In 2018, domestic acrylic acid production capacity was 3 million 340 thousand tons, and Xiangshui Jurong production capacity closed, which will affect 6.14% of domestic capacity supply."

A chemical industry in Southwest China told the twenty-first Century economic report reporter that at the same time, the price increase of benzene two amine in the domestic market will greatly increase the production cost of phenolic resin.

The calm of the entity business is also reflected in the fact that after the news of the permanent closure of the Xiangshui chemical industrial park before the Qingming Festival, third price adjustments have yet to be made.

The notice issued by the downstream printing and dyeing enterprises is mostly concentrated in late March, which is basically consistent with the "two time" points mentioned above.

According to statistics from CITIC chemical industry group, there are about 70 enterprises in Xiangshui chemical industry park, including 17 dye and intermediate enterprises, 14 pesticide and pesticide intermediates, 13 pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical intermediates.

"The dye production capacity in the park is concentrated in Jiangsu Zhijiang, Jiangsu Wuzhong and Jiangsu anothem. Jiangsu Zhijiang is one of the main suppliers of dyestuffs in China. Last year, it temporarily stopped production due to environmental protection factors.

At present, the total capacity of the three enterprises is 48 thousand tons, while the total capacity of the whole country is 1 million 200 thousand tons, accounting for 4%. "

Zhang Guoliang, an information dye industry analyst, said in April 8th.

This is one of the reasons why the above quotations of disperse dyes manufacturers have increased slightly and the price of reactive dyes has been stable.

Another main reason is that the price formation mechanism of the domestic dyestuff industry, that is, the agreement between buyers and sellers, needs buyers' recognition.

"Before and after the Ching Ming Festival, the manufacturer's quotation has not been adjusted. The price adjustment is concentrated on the part of the traders who have the goods, but the demand side is less in accordance with the actual situation, which makes the market paction price much lower than the manufacturer's quotation."

Zhang Guoliang said.

As for the downstream printing and dyeing enterprises, it is reasonable to follow the price adjustment.

In twenty-first Century, the business reporter learned that the purchasing relationship between the dyestuff industry was relatively stable. When the production capacity of the dye production enterprises was withdrawn, the printing and dyeing enterprises needed to find other suppliers temporarily. At that time, the discourse power of dyestuff production enterprises was strengthened, and the production cost of printing and dyeing enterprises was lifted.

From the perspective of cost structure, dyes and auxiliaries account for about 10% to 15% of the production cost of printing and dyeing enterprises. However, the cost items of manpower and electricity in the industry are relatively fixed, and the price of dyes has become the main variable of its cost structure.

Nowadays, the fundamental changes of dyestuffs have changed dramatically, and it is likely to trigger a continuous rise.

"No matter the environmental verification in 2018 or the Xiangshui bombing this year, it has not affected the supply of 600352.SH in Zhejiang."

Zhang Guoliang said, but whether the price of dye will continue in the future is also faced with many variables, such as when the shut-down can be resumed, and whether the big enterprises such as Zhejiang Longsheng will continue to adjust prices.

In fact, there is a bias in the market's concern about the explosion of Tian Jiayi company. It is concerned about the increase in the cost of dye to the increase of benzamine two, while ignoring the downstream conduction relationship.

"Benzene two amine is not the main raw material of dyes. The consumption of benzene two amine per ton of dye is no more than 50 kilograms. The benzene amine two exported from Longsheng in Zhejiang is partly purchased from the downstream manufacturers of resorcinol."

Zhang Guoliang said.

The downstream product of resorcinol is phenolic resin, which is mainly used for tire adhesives.

In the future, if the phthalate two amine continues to rise due to the closure of Xiangshui Chemical Industrial Park, the production cost of phenolic resin enterprises will be greatly improved.

Coupled with the current tire and automotive industry demand has not improved significantly, phenolic resin enterprises will be difficult to pfer prices to the downstream, is likely to fall into the embarrassment of upstream and downstream joint attack.

In addition to the dye and intermediates industry, the supply side of acrylic acid industry has also contracted recently.

Southwest chemical industry pointed out that Xiangshui chemical industrial park larger enterprises, in addition to 002250.SZ, Jiangsu Jurong owns 205 thousand tons of acrylic acid plant in the area.

The latter is a listed company on the Singapore Stock Exchange, and also a leading enterprise in the acrylic acid and ester industry in China.

After the Xiangshui bombing, nearly 1/3 of the company's capacity was shut down.

From the above national capacity account, Xiangshui acrylic acid affects domestic production capacity by more than 6%, slightly higher than that of local dye industry 4%, which has brought support for acrylic price rebound.

According to zhuochuang information statistics, the average price of acrylic acid in Jiangsu market rose 600 yuan to 8300 yuan / ton this week, which was 7.79% higher than last week.

It needs to be pointed out that the impact of discontinued production on the above subdivision industries can only be determined in the short term. Whether the production period will continue can also wait for a series of news of the Xiangshui Chemical Industrial Park to be permanently closed and the Jiangsu Chemical Industrial Park to be landed.

In the afternoon of April 8th, 300067.SZ, 002250.SZ and Jacques technology announced that there was no written notice of the local government closing the Xiangshui Chemical Industrial Park, and there was a great deal of uncertainty about how to deal with it later in the afternoon.

"Closing is not possible overnight.

Even if it is closed for a long time, it is expected that there will be a certain period of pition, such as the formal relocation of the new plant after being put into production, which also involves a series of problems such as compensation and many variables.

The southwest chemical industry analyst said.

Judging from the operation cycle of the whole industry, most chemical products began to collectively sell around October 2018, and the two-year rise cycle has ended.

From the impact of the textile and chemical fiber industry, the price of dye directly affects the production cost of printing and dyeing enterprises. As the downstream dyeing and dyeing enterprises of dyes, the cost of dyes and chemicals is rising.

At present, printing and dyeing enterprises also encounter environmental protection costs and dye costs, printing and dyeing enterprises complain.

In fact, every change in the textile industry may have an impact on the market, especially the dyeing and finishing industry as a relatively partial terminal.

At present, many of the printing and dyeing enterprises in the foreign market are relatively tight. With the continuous fermentation of environmental emergencies and the deepening of environmental protection, some downstream orders may be ahead of schedule.