The Industry Is Looking Up To The Domestic Cotton Market In The Short Term, Medium Term And Long Term In 2019.

Since March, Zheng cotton CF1905 contract has been repeatedly adjusted and oscillating in the 15000-15500 yuan / ton compartment, and there are not many opportunities for speculators, ginning mills and traders to cover.

Although Zheng cotton warehouse list + effective forecast increased by 1 and February, "hitting the brakes", a record high was like hanging a Damour sword on top of a long head. Fear and panic were inevitable.

In a recent large-scale cotton conference, cotton enterprises (including international cotton traders), investment institutions and Futures Company almost recognized "one-sided" recognition. In 2019, the domestic cotton market's short-term, medium-term and long-term bullish judgement, it is likely that the situation of "flying with each other and harmony and co ownership" in the internal and external markets is likely to happen.

However, Zheng cotton daily warehouse receipt problem is a bit tricky to solve. On the one hand, Zheng cotton's contract in recent months backed by 15000 yuan / ton rebounded or even reversed. It has been confirmed that in the north of Xinjiang, the probability of picking up cotton warehouse receipts is quite low. The price difference between CF1905 and CF1909 on the other side is only 470-480 (the contract needs to be paid 180 yuan / ton in September).

Why is it still full of expectation and confidence in Zheng cotton's rise under the precondition of "top down" and "Sino US trade negotiations" still uncertain?

The author briefly summarizes the following points:

First, global monetary policy has shifted and inflationary pressures have emerged.

The Fed changed its position at the March meeting, hinting that it might not raise interest rates again this year, and said it would end its contraction in September. The Fed's "sharp turn in policy" has attracted the attention of market participants.

Morgan and some other investment banks believe that the Federal Reserve or the interest rate cut by 50 basis points, plus the European Union, China, Brazil, India, Japan and other countries have opened monetary "loose" mode, commodity commodities (especially agricultural products) rebound is expected to be strong.

Second, ICE cotton futures open up the channel, the May contract probably broke 80 cents / pound or even 85 cents / pound, helped Zheng cotton contract broke through the 15500 yuan / ton mark.

Recently, US President Trump said that the agreement has reached much more than the unsolved problems. The two sides have reached a consensus on some of the most difficult issues. The US and China have been "very close" to reach an agreement.

The two sides may complete negotiations within four weeks. He looks forward to meeting with President Xi Jinping after the two sides have reached an agreement to witness this great moment.

From the positive signals that have been released, the Sino US trade consultation is coming to an end.

In addition, there is an objective gap between domestic cotton supply and demand in 2018/19, and how to fill the existing problems.