A Number Of Research Institutes Believe That There May Be A Slowdown In The Coming Months: China'S Economic Stabilization Is Under Pressure.

At present, China's economy is in the process of bottom up stabilization, but the pressure on this process is still large.

Economic and financial data show that the foundation for stabilization is not yet solid and still needs arduous efforts.

Medium and long term loans for enterprises are obviously down.

In April, the medium and long term loans of enterprises obviously fell, indicating that the current aggregate demand is insufficient.

According to the data released by the Central Bank of China, RMB loans increased by 1 trillion and 20 billion yuan in April, a decrease of 161 billion 500 million yuan compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 40%.

According to the division, loans for non-financial enterprises and government organizations increased by 347 billion 100 million yuan, of which short-term loans were reduced by 141 billion 700 million yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 282 billion 300 million yuan, bills financing increased by 187 billion 400 million yuan, and loans from non banking financial institutions increased by 141 billion 700 million yuan.

In contrast to March, short-term loans for new businesses were negative and the net reduction was very impressive. At the same time, the number of new loans in the medium and long term also dropped sharply.

The credit month's year-on-year ratio and the ring to market ratio showed a marked decline, especially when the short-term loans and the medium and long term loans increased in the same period. This may be a comprehensive reflection of the insufficient demand for physical financing and the marginal adjustment of monetary policy, of which demand is the main reason.

From the perspective of the enterprise sector, the slowdown in the growth of corporate loans is noteworthy. This shows that the banking institutions and other financial institutions have increased their credit early this year, which may be more obvious for the later stock projects.

From the point of view of loan investment, the current demand for loans is mainly based on infrastructure and real estate, while industrial demand is still weak.

In terms of infrastructure, combined with the situation of local debt issuance in April, the pace of local government funding may also slow down, which may affect the speed of infrastructure investment.

Data released by the central bank showed that the net financing of local government bonds was 167 billion 900 million yuan, showing signs of slowing down.

From the household sector, the housing sector loans increased by 525 billion 800 million yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 109 billion 300 million yuan, which may be mainly affected by seasonal factors, but it is still relatively high, reflecting the fact that consumer loans are still welcomed by both the supply and demand side.

Medium and long-term loans increased by 416 billion 500 million yuan, still high, reflecting the steady sales of real estate.

M1 growth rate reached a new low of ten years

According to the central bank's data, the balance of M2 in the end of 4 was 188 trillion and 470 billion yuan, up 8.5% from the same period last year, the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points lower than the end of last month, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, which is consistent with the growth trend of social financing scale.

The balance of narrow money (M1) was 54 trillion and 60 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9% over the same period, and the growth rate was 1.7 and 4.3 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year.

Excluding 5% of the tail factor, the new price increase factor is obviously negative, and the M1 ring ratio has reached the lowest level in the same period in ten years.

The sharp decline in the growth rate of M1 has shown that the cash and deposit vitality of the business sector has declined, which is related to the operating conditions of the enterprises.

This trend is compatible with the structure of the amateur business deposits.

From the perspective of the structure of new deposits, the growth of corporate sector deposits in April was significantly weaker than that in the same period last year, and the improvement of cash flow in corporate sector in March was not sustainable.

This is consistent with the slowdown in loan growth in the corporate sector. The Research Institute believes that it may also mean that the growth rate of industrial enterprises' profit growth has not been sustained.

Central bank data show that in April, RMB deposits increased by 260 billion 600 million yuan, a decrease of 274 billion 600 million yuan compared with the same period last year.

Among them, household deposits decreased by 624 billion 800 million yuan, deposits of non-financial enterprises decreased by 173 billion 800 million yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 534 billion 700 million yuan, and deposits of non banking financial institutions increased by 278 billion 500 million yuan.

Core CPI fell to its lowest level in nearly three years

In April, CPI grew by 2.5% over the same period last year, and PPI grew by 0.9% compared to the same period last year, all of which rebounded from March, and was significantly stronger than the seasonality.

But from the sub item data, it can still reflect the weakness of economic operation.

According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics, CPI rose 2.5% from a year-on-year increase, or 0.2 percentage points from last month.

Among them, food prices rose 6.1%, affecting CPI rose by about 1.19 percentage points, non food prices rose 1.7%, affecting CPI rose by 1.35 percentage points.

The rise in food prices was significantly higher than seasonal, and the increase in non food prices was less than seasonal.

In the food industry, the price of pork is most obviously affected by hog cholera.

Pork prices rose 14.4%, an increase of 9.3 percentage points from last month, affecting CPI rose by about 0.31 percentage points.

In non food, health care, education, culture and entertainment, living prices rose by 2.6%, 2.5% and 2% respectively, which together affected CPI's rise by about 0.93 percentage points.

Excluding volatile food and energy, the core CPI growth slowed down to 1.7% in April, back to the low level since September 2016.

In April, PPI operation was also stronger than seasonal, but it was mainly driven by upstream and food processing industries. Downstream clothing, general and durable consumer items continued to be weak, and downstream industrial prices were weak.

It is foreseeable that the growth rate of PPI driven by the food processing industry is not sustainable.

PMI falls, economic expansion slows down

As a leading indicator of the economy, the purchasing managers index PMI also showed a downward trend in April, and this year's low position.

This shows signs of slowing down in the relatively high manufacturing industry in GDP.

According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics, in April, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 50.1%, which was on the critical point for two consecutive months, down 0.4 percentage points from last month.

Judging from the sub item data, the production index and the new order index have all come down, which shows that the current aggregate demand is weaker than before.

Production index and new order index were 52.1% and 51.4% respectively, down 0.6 and 0.2 percentage points from last month.

Meanwhile, the employment index dropped by 0.4 percentage points, showing a downward trend for five consecutive months, indicating that the acceleration of employment in manufacturing industry was decreasing.

Although the new export orders index and import index have picked up, they are still in the contraction zone.

The expectation of production and business activities fell again after two consecutive months of improvement, and 4 recorded 56.5, down from 0.3 percentage points last month, still the highest level since September 2018.

Overall, the PMI index in April showed that the overall production and business activities of the enterprises continued to expand, but the pace slowed down.

From the industry data, in April, the six major power generation coal consumption dropped from the same period last year, showing that industrial production slowed down in April, and the progress of local debt issuance also slowed down, indicating that the high growth of future fiscal expenditure will be limited.

In addition, the lack of external demand for improvement, the government is cautious about the real estate rebound, many research institutions believe that the next few months, the economy is still likely to slow down.