Caprolactam Is Approaching The Cost Price.

With the long-term downturn in the demand chain of nylon industry chain, the price of caprolactam has been declining, and the price of pure benzene has shown signs of a slight rebound. Caprolactam has gradually approached the cost price, and whether there is still a downside space in the late stage.

Cost side

Due to the low popularity of the whole market in Taipei APIC conference, there was only a few discussions and prices continued to be stable.

Although the price of the external market is high, the domestic factory inventory is high, so the low willingness to rise and prudent maintenance of stability lead to weak market guidance and low market activity.

Late mid month, port inventory continued to slow down stimulation, factory listing price slightly increased 50 yuan / ton to 4500 yuan / ton, double stimulation, the market began to be active and rising, but because caprolactam and benzene correlation decreased year by year, the price by the cost side rose confidence is limited.

Supply and demand side

Main caprolactam plants in China

At present, the overall operation rate of caprolactam plant is around 65%, and the start-up load of downstream polymerization plant has been maintained at around 6. However, as the terminal demand continues to be poor, slicing manufacturers basically maintain fast forward and fast out strategy, just need procurement, so as to comprehensively control costs and profits, so as to prevent the re emergence of cost profit inversion, resulting in the loss of enterprises.

Profit side

Up to now, caprolactam ex factory price is 11500-11800 yuan / ton cash or even lower level, pure benzene listing price 4500 yuan / ton, plus processing cost 6000 yuan / ton, accordingly calculate caprolactam profit 1150 yuan / ton, part of the view is that even if caprolactam profits have narrowed to 1000 yuan, the market still has downside space, the other view is that the price of caprolactam is close to the bottom.

On the whole, caprolactam is basically in a state of profit and loss. The demand for sliced raw materials continues to decrease, and the supply of goods is basically low. For example, further approaching the cost price will have a devastating effect on the future price trend of caprolactam, and the upstream and downstream do not want such a situation to happen. The price is approaching the bottom and is considered to be a big probability event.