Cotton Market Is Difficult To Have Upward Trend.

Cotton futures declined yesterday. At the close, cotton futures closed down at 12965 yuan / ton, and cotton yarn futures fell 2.97%, to 21095 yuan / ton.

Analysts pointed out that at present, both inside and outside cotton fundamentals are weak, but domestic futures warehouse receipts continue to flow out to support cotton prices, cotton prices or continue low-level oscillation.

Internal and external Fundamentals

Since May, the fluctuation of domestic assets has been aggravated by the macroeconomic disturbance.

Cotton futures are one of them.

Insiders pointed out that the macro expected recent frequent changes, cotton more affected, prices have also fluctuated significantly, since mid April, the cotton main 1909 contract has dropped more than 3000 points.

From the external market, CITIC futures Agricultural Research Group believes that the current expected new year cotton stocks will increase at the end of the year, the US cotton main contract fell below 70 cents after the downtrend slowed down.

India's domestic cotton prices oscillate, and its meteorological agency expects this year's monsoon rainfall to be near normal.

From the domestic point of view, the above-mentioned research group pointed out that the rotation of cotton reserves continued, and the turnover rate decreased in the fourth week, and the base price in the fifth week increased by about 50 yuan / ton.

China has issued additional import quotas and arrangements for the delivery of cotton reserves.

From cotton spot, last week cotton spot price index narrowed, yarn prices dropped; zhengcotton registered warehouse receipts increased cost performance, continued outflow.

Huo Yawen, a futures analyst at founder's mid term, said that the global economic growth is sluggish, and that global consumption will face certain growth difficulties in the later stage. The specific consumption of textile and clothing in the lower reaches of the domestic cotton industry is bound to decrease.

At home and abroad, cotton entered the seeding period of 2019/220, the window of weather speculation was opened, and later the cotton growth was focused on.

As a whole, domestic cotton is still in excess of demand. It is expected that Zheng cotton will continue its low oscillation in June.

Weak running pattern does not change

"In the long term, the new year's global cotton production is expected to be stronger, the consumption side is uncertain, and the cotton market is difficult to have a trend.

In the short term, domestic futures warehouse receipts continue to flow out, and there is support at the bottom of Zheng cotton.

Pay attention to the auction of cotton reserves and the growth of new cotton.

CITIC futures research said.

Looking ahead, Peng Yao, a German futures analyst, said that India is expected to continue to maintain a high subsidy policy in terms of supply. The price is high, but the sales profit of imported yarn is in turn. The United States abolished the treatment of India's GSP and India consumption (India textile and clothing exports to the United States accounted for 7-8% of textiles and clothing imports from the United States).

Domestic spot spot price resources were reduced. Last week, the standard sale base price was 13825 yuan / ton (+78).

In terms of demand, global cotton consumption is expected to weaken under the macro disturbance, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices will continue to shrink; the domestic downstream orders will be less than the same year, and the stock of cotton yarn and cotton fabric will continue to increase.

Peng Yao believes that downstream consumption is expected to be short term in July and will continue to turn short in the short term, and cotton will be low in the middle and outside. It will pay attention to the progress of planting in the central and southern parts of the United States and cotton. It is expected that the short term concussion of Zheng cotton will be running in a weak way. The 01 contract will be supported by 13700 yuan per ton.

It is worth noting that some cotton related stocks in A shares have been greatly promoted in the strong sense of seed industry, thus driving the cotton index up 1.57%.

From the perspective of individual stocks, the development of new agriculture and Dunhuang seed trading have increased by 3.13%, and the new stock market has risen by 2.49%.