From Limit To Limit, Why Does PTA Futures Ride On Roller Coaster?

Since the beginning of this week, the price of PTA futures main contract 1909 has been like a roller coaster. After hitting the trading limit in the first 2 trading days, the price has been plummeted. On Thursday, it was sealed down. Analysts said that the PTA price hit hard under the influence of capital fluctuations and market panic. At present, although the fundamentals of PTA haven't changed radically, the risks are accumulating. We need to guard against the risk of further price fall.

Price limit

Since the new high of 6612 yuan / ton in July 3rd, the 1909 futures contract of the PTA futures contract has suffered a heavy pressure drop. On the 4 day, it was closed at the limit price of 6068 yuan / ton, or 320 yuan or 5.01%. The intra day turnover increased by 774 thousand to 8 million 394 thousand hands, and the positions were reduced by 69556 hands to 1 million 374 thousand hands.

"Within a short span of 4 trading days, the price of PTA futures from the daily limit to the limit is mainly caused by fluctuations in the capital market and market panic." Pang Chunyan, an analyst of China investment and Anshun futures, said.

Specifically, Pang Chunyan said, in the upstream raw material stability to the good, downstream polyester link performance of the health of the basic front, the international trade situation to ease the market for the future textile and clothing orders exist better expectations, the first 2 trading days this week, PTA futures main contract price of 1909 contracts have reached the limit. However, Tuesday night plate circulated a letter of report, affected by the impact, the price of the contract from a sharp rise to 6600 yuan / ton to a rapid fall to 6200 yuan / tonne, the drastic fluctuation of more than 400 yuan / tonne. In July 4th, there was a news report again, and the PTA price plunged immediately. The price fluctuation within the day exceeded 400 yuan / ton again, and the closing price was 8 million 400 thousand days later.

Another industry insider said that polyester production and sales fell sharply on Tuesday and became the fuse of PTA price sell-off.

Risk is gathering.

Has the price of PTA changed from a rapid rise to a sharp decline?

Pang Chunyan said that during the recent rapid rise of PTA prices, PTA production profits expanded rapidly, and spot processing fees had exceeded 2400 yuan / ton, which was higher than the 3 quarter of last year, but the fundamentals are not better than the same period last year. PTA prices continue to rise in recent years, the downstream polyester yarn can be increased because of low inventory, but the terminal weaving has already made a large number of raw materials stocking, product inventory is also in the same period in recent years high level, the market is expected to ease the international trade situation may have textile and apparel orders, but before the eyes did not significantly increase the terminal consumption, so weaving enterprises continue to stock up capacity is limited, in July 3rd polyester production and marketing only 1-2. In addition, the price of PTA has gone up in recent years, but the price of the lower bottle flakes is increasing, and the willingness to reduce production will increase. Therefore, the overall operating rate of the polyester industry may be affected. Overall, in the short span of 4 trading days, there has been no fundamental change in the fundamentals of PTA, but the risks are accumulating.

"The maintenance of the Fuhua plant may cause PTA to tighten at the supply stage, but the profit has been digested by the market. Polyester polyester is still in a low inventory and high profit state, but production and sales have dropped sharply, and there has been a tired warehouse. In addition, bottle cutting enterprises take the initiative to reduce production, weaving enterprises raw materials and finished products inventory is also at a high level, which is the main risk of the market. In addition, the upstream Sinochem PX plant will also have a drag effect on the price of PTA from the cost side. Pang Chunyan said.

For the future market, Pang Chunyan said that the current PTA is mainly due to fluctuations in the price of capital caused by sharp fluctuations in the price, but if the terminal orders can not appear in time, weaving enterprises can not afford the substantial increase in raw material prices, which will in turn constrain the upstream raw material prices. In particular, at present, PTA and pet links are lucrative, and there are also bad expectations for the new capacity of PX and PTA in the medium and long lines. The market mentality is weak, and high profit return is a matter of time.