Weaving "Kim Gu" Opened Countdown, Textile Industry In The Off-Season Quickly "Boil" Out!

Recently, Xiaobian in the visit process, we feel that everyone is "boil", "boil" to remove the inventory, "boil" and so on the "golden nine silver ten" arrival, "boil" the customer's money in place...... These happened in the third week of August, and less than 20 days before the traditional textile peak season in September.

This year's market peak season is not prosperous, and the off-season is even lighter. It is a foregone conclusion. When the high temperature limit production can not save more and more stocks, everyone will turn to the price. Will enterprises return to blood through price cuts? The answer is obviously Yes!

One

Industry is deeply in the "active inventory" cycle.

From an economic point of view, a complete inventory cycle consists of four stages: active replenishment, passive replenishment, active inventory and passive inventory, corresponding to the boom, recession, depression and recovery stage of the economic cycle.

Data released by the National Bureau of statistics show that the growth rate of finished product inventories in industrial enterprises continued to drop to 3.5% in June, compared with 45% in June, which is still much higher than that in the past two years.

　　 Inventory growth will return to the downstream channel, and inventory income ratio is still high, the overall industrial enterprises are still actively taking inventory cycle. According to professional analysis, the textile and garment industry is also the current situation. In the next 1-2 months or so, the industry is still in the initiative to go to the inventory cycle, it is difficult to enter the passive inventory cycle, the replenishment cycle is longer.

Although the upstream raw materials have gone from "active inventory" to "passive inventory", the weaving industry in the middle reaches is still in the "active inventory" cycle, and the terminal garment industry has a relatively slow conversion cycle. Some garment factories reflect that the volume of the garment industry is shrinking, or the initial fabrics are not yet digested.

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Enterprise automatic price reduction inventory

According to the sample data of China silk net monitoring, the inventory of grey fabric in Shengze has been maintained for about 42-43 days. The recent limited production did not significantly reduce the inventory of the weaving factories, and kept them at a state of production and marketing balance. As the market started to pick up, the exhausted inventory did not take the opportunity to eliminate, and the new grey cloth was woven out again, and the gray cloth in the factory began to become tired again. I heard that some large factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are now tired of thousands of grey cloth inventory waiting for sales, and some manufacturers have kept their stocks in a relatively reasonable position by reducing prices.

　　 At present, the market 190T polyester taff falls below 1 yuan mark, the 75D Chiffon price is 3 yuan / meter, the price has returned to the level of about 2016, compared with the same period last year, it has dropped by about 30-40%, and the raw material price decline has not been so large, which has led to the obvious compression of the profit margins of the manufacturers.

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"The price of the market has been stable recently, but in order to win the order, we will lose 1-2 wool," he said. "I hope customers can place the order," said Yang, who is responsible for the simulation silk weaving factory in Shengze.

Mr. Li, chief of the textile factory, which is mainly engaged in Chun Ya spinning, also said that the profit of each loom would be guaranteed at 50-60 yuan / day before the order was received. Now, only 20 yuan / day profit list will be answered, so as to ensure that there is no explosion in the off-season.

The price of raw materials is extremely unstable. In recent days, people have been asking the price is very low. Can they copy the bottom? Some people say that before the low grey cloth reached a low level, they would rebound sharply in the peak season. Would this be the case again?

Just yesterday (August 14th), good news came from Sino US trade relations.

One

In August 14, 2019, USTR issued the fourth batch of 300 billion US dollar tax list adjustment, which was divided into three parts: about 1% (for the 2018 US imports from China) for medical treatment and safety reasons. The tax date for the 59% of the commodities such as mobile phones, notebook computers, game players, some toys, computer monitors, some clothes, shoes and hats was postponed to December 15th, and the remaining 40% tax date was still September 1st.

Excluding 1% of the goods, 59% of the goods were postponed. USTR excluded a total of $1 billion 450 million worth of goods, focusing on fish (HS03), vehicle parts (HS86), and inorganic chemicals (HS28) and other commodity classification (Fig. 1). A total of 158 billion 300 million dollars, accounting for 59% of the main products, were mainly concentrated in the electrical machinery, electrical equipment and parts (HS85625 billion, accounting for 74%), machinery, mechanical appliances and parts (HS84425 billion, accounting for 74%), toys (HS95219 billion, accounting for 82%), footwear (HS64, 6 billion 700 million US dollars, accounting for 48%) and other commodity classification.

Stimulated by the good news, the raw material market took the lead in response, and the volume and price rose all the same. In contrast, the fabric market was relatively rational. The manufacturers said that Trump's "face changing" technology was perfect. After a year and a year, we were all calm. The order that we could connect to, we could not give up, we could only give up. The key is to manage our products well, and there will be a market for products. For the post market situation, most of the cloth owners during the visit indicated that the fundamentals were still under pressure in the short term.

01

Raw materials rebound power is insufficient, the cost of grey cloth is difficult to build. Many customers are more astute now, raw materials generally do not take the initiative to raise prices to suppliers, but raw materials will fall into price immediately with suppliers, so it also causes the cost pressure of grey fabric manufacturers to be transferred and profit margins lower this year. In view of the current raw material market, although raw materials factory has absolute discourse power and price will not fall through, but at present, downstream buyers lack the "speculation" mentality, and the raw material market lacks support.

02

Large capacity projects are still on the market, and market supply is increasing in the short term. Since the beginning of this year, the pace of transferring low-end capacity from Jiangsu to Zhejiang has not stopped. Many large companies even have thousands of units to produce new capacity. According to incomplete statistics, the capacity of newly sprays looms in Northern Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and Jiangxi has exceeded 200 thousand units, far exceeding the volume of water jet looms eliminated by traditional textile clusters in the Yangtze River Delta region.

03

The major clothing brands are reported in the middle of the year, and the profits and inventory data are worrying. For example, in its semi annual performance forecast issued in 2019, La Natsu Bell showed that the first half of the first half was between 440 million yuan and 540 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 300%. Meanwhile, in the first half of the year, there were over 2400 stores under its crazy closing line. In 2014 -2018, La Natsu Bell's inventory rose rapidly from 1 billion 327 million yuan to 2 billion 534 million yuan, while the share of current stock accounts for 26.42% from liquid assets to 48.58%.

When the industry enters a "cyclical low season", every link will face severe survival of the fittest. After a slight rise in the market in mid and late 7 months, the market is still returning to calm. Although the proofing and the small bills in the market are better than before, the small and medium volume has become the mainstream of the market, and the market orders are also uneven. At present, the market seems to be "ready to move", but there is still a distance from the "Kim Gu" in our minds.