The Prospect Of Sino US Trade War Is Hard To See. Cotton Prices Rebounded.

Last week (August 26-30), with the advent of the new cotton market, processing enterprises and traders stepped up promotional efforts, and the offer fell sharply. Cotton mill sales in cotton mill are slow, the cash withdrawal is difficult, and the quantity of cotton purchasing is small. The volume of trading is down, and the spot price of the futures market is bad. New cotton picking sporadically, in the face of a large number of Chen cotton inventory and falling prices, processing companies are mostly waiting to wait and see, the date of listing will move back. Cotton price CNCottonB index price 12994 yuan / ton, week fell 552 yuan / ton, compared with Zheng cotton futures CF1909 contract, spot premium 1014 yuan / ton, week reduced 312 yuan / ton.

Futures. By the United States threatened the tariff overweight news, Zheng cotton on Monday opened a sharp fall close to the limit, in the subsequent rounds of talks, the resumption of talks in September and the good news of the U.S. hurricane, the price rebounded. Zheng cotton main CF2001 contract closed on 12520 yuan / ton last Friday, the week fell 210 yuan / ton, the week traded 2155438 hands, increased 596856 hands, the reduction 38.3%, holds 524380 hands, the week increased 19132 hands, the increase 3.8%, the disk big shock, the transaction increased obviously. September delivery approached, the funds quickly left the field, part of the shift positions in January, a substantial reduction in positions. Chen cotton stocks exceed 1 million 500 thousand tons, new cotton will be listed in mid September, Sino US trade war in the short term, there is no substantive good, technical pressure will not be reduced. This week, the price dropped by 352 yuan / ton to 12335 yuan / ton, bringing a new low, futures.

Us disk: Trade war escalated, Monday fell sharply, and Tuesday began to stabilize gradually. ICE's main contract in December closed at 58.89 cents / pound on Friday, rising 71 points, paying attention to the impact of hurricane and the progress of Sino US trade war negotiations.

On the spot. Trade war escalated, market panic heightened, processing and trade enterprises increased sales promotion, cotton quotations were greatly reduced, but orders for post mill mills were insufficient, sales difficulties were difficult, production continued to be limited to inventory, spot price was hung less, location was low, and turnover was less. At present, the resources of Xinjiang cotton in the mainland are generally concentrated at 12700-13000 yuan / ton, and most of the imported cotton imports are not insured because of the high cost. The quoted price is generally above 13000 yuan / ton, which is significantly higher than that of Xinjiang cotton. Brazil cotton is coming to Hong Kong in the new year, which basically can replace the United States and cotton, which will create greater pressure on the sale of imported cotton.

Acquisition of new cotton. New cotton has been picked sporadically, on the one hand, according to the current lint price, seed cotton purchase price of 2.9 yuan / kg, may have no market price, even if it can be received, facing 1 million 500 thousand tons of Chen cotton inventory, sales is also a problem, for Chen cotton sales end processing plant compared with Chen cotton, the advantage is an opportunity. BINGTUAN is the main body of the acquisition of Xinjiang cotton. The processing plant will not take part in the takeover or rental. The cotton picking or forming problems may arise during the centralized acquisition of machine picked cotton, which deserves attention.

Operation suggestion. The prospect of Sino US trade war is unpredictable, market confidence is impaired, new cotton is on the market, cotton price shocks or bottom up, and exit from wait-and-see or bargain can be tested far. Pay attention to cotton weather and Sino US negotiation progress.