What Is The Cotton Market? These 5 Big Points, Textile Enterprises, Please Pay Attention!

In the middle of September, the picking speed of new cotton was accelerated, and some of the seed cotton had been listed. In order to reasonably guide the market expectations and ensure a smooth and orderly transition of the cotton market in the new and old year, the deadline for sale of 2017/2018 cotton reserves was September 30th, that is, the last week of this week's sale for the 2017/2018 reserve cotton wheel.

In September 23rd, the sale of resources of the reserve cotton mill was 11850.4648 tons, and the actual turnover was 11550.0778 tons, with a turnover rate of 97.47%. The average transaction price was 12141 yuan / ton, down 8 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. From May 5th to September 23rd, the cumulative turnover of cotton reserves was 943 thousand and 900 tons, with a turnover rate of 86.26%. In September 23rd, cotton 3218B quoted 13036 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day's price.

As the largest economic crop in China's agricultural products, cotton is involved in the two major industries of agriculture and textile industry. It is an important commodity for export earning and an indispensable necessities for urban and rural residents in China.

In recent years, with the rapid development of domestic textile industry, the demand for cotton is increasing. Cotton plays a more important role in the production and life of residents.

In recent years, cotton prices have been ups and downs. The state has launched a temporary cotton storage and storage system, and has adjusted cotton sliding tax formula and sliding tax quota to protect cotton farmers' interests and stabilize cotton production.

The cotton season is coming to an end this year. The new cotton year is about to begin. The analysis of the development characteristics of the domestic cotton market has a strong practical significance for the development of China's cotton production and textile industry. The following 5 points, textile enterprises, please pay attention!

First, cotton planting area decreased.

Affected by the downturn of cotton market in recent years, China's cotton planting area has been decreasing this year. According to the national cotton market monitoring system survey, the national cotton sown area is 71 million 787 thousand mu, a decrease of 7 million 631 thousand mu compared with the same period, a decrease of 9.6%. Among them, the sowing area of cotton in the the Yellow River River Basin was 26 million 788 thousand mu, a decrease of 14.2% compared with the same period last year. The actual sowing area of the Yangtze River Basin was 18 million 192 thousand mu, a decrease of 13.5% compared with that of the previous year, and the actual sowing area of the northwest inland area was 26 million 640 thousand mu, down 1.4% from the same period last year. In 2012, the average cotton yield per unit area was 95.5 kg / mu, 0.6% higher than that of last year. It is estimated that cotton output will be around 6 million 850 thousand tons in the whole year. The most fundamental reason for the reduction of cotton planting is the increase in the cost of seed cotton and the decrease in yield. The cotton association of China showed that the average cost of cotton planting increased by 21% over the same period. The physical labor cost increased by 5.4%, the labor cost increased by 39.5%, and the labor cost accounted for 52% of the first cost. The sale price of cotton in 2011 dropped by 20% compared with the same period last year, and the income per mu of cotton planting was only 287.8 yuan / mu, down by about 62% compared with the same period last year.

Two, the market demand for cotton is sluggish.

The domestic cotton consumption market is still weak this year. According to the July cotton outlook of the US Department of agriculture (USDA), China's cotton consumption will decrease by 3.7% to 8 million 610 thousand tons over the same period, and the share of global consumption will be reduced to 36%, the lowest level in 8 years. The PMI data released by China Federation of logistics and purchasing show that in June, the textile purchasing managers' new order index was 31.2%, the production index was 41.6%, the decline was 5.7% and 5.3% respectively, the finished goods inventory index was 61.6%, a seven month high, and the textile industry sales pressure increased. The decrease in cotton consumption is mainly affected by the sluggish sales of textile enterprises. Because of the high cost of raw materials, the domestic cotton textile industry has weakened its competitiveness in the international market. Under the pressure of limited domestic demand and shrinking foreign trade demand, some textile enterprises are trapped in operation, and production, production and production stop are widespread. According to the Cotton Textile Association survey, the current loss of cotton textile enterprises has reached 40%. In the short term, the possibility of industry warming is relatively small, and cotton consumption will continue to decline.

Three, inventory consumption ratio continues to rise

According to USDA forecast, the end of the year is expected to be 7 million 100 thousand tons, up 15% from last year, accounting for 42% of the end of the world stock. With the reduction of domestic cotton consumption and the increase of inventory, the inventory consumption ratio reflecting the relationship between supply and demand of cotton has been rising. As shown in Figure 1, China's cotton consumption will reach a record high of 80.51% this year.

Four, cotton imports continue to grow.

According to customs data, China imported 3 million 55 thousand tons of cotton in 1-7 months, an increase of 113.8% over the same period last year. The high price of cotton both inside and outside is the main reason for the large increase in cotton imports. Domestic textile enterprises find ways to cut costs by increasing import volume of foreign cotton and expanding the proportion of foreign cotton. In July 25th, the national cotton price B index representing the domestic 328 class cotton price was 18470 yuan / ton, while the imported cotton price index m grade cotton was converted to 14109 yuan / ton and 14935 yuan / ton according to the 1% import tariff and sliding tax, and the difference between imported cotton and domestic cotton price was 4361 yuan / ton and 3535 yuan / ton respectively. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices will expand with the rebound of cotton prices in the second half of the year.

Five, cotton prices remain stable.

With the support of cotton purchasing and storage policy, cotton prices in the first quarter showed an upward trend, especially in the first half of March. With the end of cotton purchasing and storage work, cotton prices began to decline in April, and in June it has fallen below the 19000 yuan / ton mark. With the coming of the new cotton year, the market is expected to increase the purchasing and storage policy for next year, and cotton prices will rebound slightly. However, due to the continuous increase in cotton inventories, the impact of the new cotton market and the sluggish demand in the textile industry, the cotton price will continue to rise in a limited space in the later stage, and the trend will be stable and weak.

Six, policy recommendations

1, support the construction of production base in the dominant cotton producing areas. 。 We should further optimize the layout of production in main production areas, increase the efficiency of cotton production, raise the unit area yield, promote the large-scale production of cotton and reduce the external dependence of cotton demand.

2, uphold and improve the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy. And it will be long - term and institutionalized so as to stabilize the cotton planting area, mobilize the enthusiasm of cotton farmers and ensure the production income of cotton farmers.

3, accelerate the construction of cotton planting mechanization. At present, only the Xinjiang region has achieved initial modernization in cotton planting technology and machinery and equipment. Most of the inland cotton planting areas still maintain the traditional mode of production. Increasing investment in science and technology in cotton planting area plays a vital role in promoting cotton production and reducing labor costs.

4, improve the monitoring and warning capabilities of the cotton market. Because of lack of timely and effective information guidance, the production of cotton growers in China is often blind and passive. It is necessary to set up a national information sharing platform for cotton production, processing and sales, so as to enhance the ability of statistical investigation, forecast analysis and early warning of major and unexpected events at home and abroad.