Will The New Round Of PTA Equipment Overhaul Tide Be Able To Boost The "Pressure Mountain" In October?

The latest news: Hengli Dalian annual output of 2 million 200 thousand tons of PTA device, officially from October 7th to stop maintenance, planned maintenance for 12 days. Jiangsu Honggang Petrochemical Company's annual output of 1 million 500 thousand tons of PTA plant is scheduled to begin maintenance in October 14th.

According to the previous statistics of the fourth quarter PTA device maintenance plan, we can see that Hengli petrochemical PTA device has started maintenance as scheduled, then the PTA device maintenance tide will come.

Fourth quarter maintenance plan for PTA plant

Can PTA device repair upgrade the industrial chain?

Let's take a look at the production and sale of polyester before and after eleven long holidays.

"Before and during the holidays" 24 and 29 days appeared two rounds of downstream centralized procurement cycle, polyester filament factory production and sales volume, part of the festival is just needed sales, and the other part is the post holiday order.

The price of polyester filament is generally stable, production and marketing is light, and 1-4 days, most enterprises are basically 0-1 sales. On the 5-6 day, a small number of transactions are expected to be only about 2-3 percent, and the average production and sales on 7 days are up to 3-4 percent. During the long holiday period, the average production and sale of polyester filament is estimated at 2 percent, and the pet factory's stock rights increase by 5 days. However, because most of these polyester enterprises have pre sales, that is, before the festival, they are ordered to deliver goods after the holidays. Although there are very few new orders, there is still a certain portion of the actual shipments. Actually, the stock will eventually rise slightly in the stock market. Eleven period

According to CCF statistics, as of October 7th, POY inventory was slightly larger in the 10 days, and mainly concentrated in the hands of polyester factories, and less is still in the vicinity of a week. FDY inventory pressure is slightly larger than POY, less basically in 10-11 days, higher in half a month or more, and DTY factory stock has exceeded 20 days.

During the eleven period, the proportion of downstream parking is relatively normal. In Changshu, Taicang, Cixi, Xiaoshao and other places, the drop in operation is estimated to be around 2. In Changxin, it is estimated that 5-6 of them are on holiday. But in a comprehensive sense, the eleven days during the holidays are reduced by 2-3. By the end of the last day of October 7th, the booting has resumed, and the overall boot rate is expected to return to around 7-8.

In contrast, weaving eleven parking is much more than that of adding bombs, of which warp knitting starts down, but is estimated to be 2-4. Parking is mainly concentrated in about 3 days, but the larger the pressure loom is, the more common vacation days and days are.

At present, the warp knitting machine has been resumed, and the water jet weaving is slow. Generally speaking, the eleven parking proportion of this year is not high. This is also the main factor that can support the relatively low overall inventory of POY, while the weaving pressure is larger and the parking ratio is relatively high, which makes the overall inventory pressure of FDY and DTY slightly larger. 。 The sales of weaving fabric remained in the early stage, and no improvement was continued. The average stock was still high, and the inventory intensity was relatively slow.

"Eleven after the holidays" At present, the raw materials for downstream raw materials have not been fully stocked. In October 8th, the production and sales of Jiangsu and Zhejiang reached 8-9, and there was a certain demand for rigid stocking in the near future. Pet factory inventory pressure has increased compared with pre holiday, though POY stock is relatively acceptable, but FDY and DTY have a little stock pressure, and the market mentality is weak. 。

According to past experience, late September should be the best time for downstream demand, but overall whether it is a change in efficiency or inventory is not obvious, the future loom and weaving enterprises are still facing the pressure of sales and efficiency.

" Under mountain-like pressure In October, the maintenance of equipment was limited.

For the textile industry chain, October is also a special period. There are eleven long holidays before, and weaker demand is expected. Sales pressure will increase more obviously in September than in September.

PTA device maintenance will undoubtedly drive the industrial chain to a certain extent, but this kind of boost may have limited effect on the current market. It is expected that starting rate of weaving enterprises will be low in late October, because this time point is on the one hand, the domestic demand for the two eleven orders is coming to an end, while the orders for export Christmas are also expected to end at the end of October. Source: CCF