Lack Of Demand To Support International Oil Prices Difficult To Enhance Polyester Filament Market

Around 13:20 Beijing time on October 11th, Iran national gas company's oil tanker exploded and ignited near the port of Jeddah. International oil prices soared in short term, WTI rose to 54.66 U.S. dollars / barrel, refresh 8 trading day high; Brent rose to 60.39 U. S. dollars / barrel, refresh 9 trading day high.

This is the oil supply disruption in the Middle East after the Saudi Arabian oil company's refining facility was attacked by drone in September 14th. As of the end of the day, WTI crude oil futures rose 1.15 U.S. dollars in November, closed at $54.70 a barrel, or 2.15%; Brent December crude oil futures rose 1.41 U.S. dollars, closed at $60.51 a barrel, or 2.39%.

Crude oil market "thunder", originally thought that the polyester market will cause a storm, can alleviate the recent stage "calm water" market situation. However, it seems to be a "false move", whether PTA or ethylene glycol futures and spot market performance is quite plain, of course, polyester filament is also difficult to have a good boost.

Over 100 production and marketing, actually another "one day tour"?

On the 11 day, the temperature of the polyester filament Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces increased, and the overall production and sales increased. According to statistics, the production and marketing of polyester mainstream factories are concentrated near 130%-140%, and 220% or 300% of them are relatively high. However, the mainstream production and marketing of polyester already had more than 100 market before noon, mainly due to the promotion of manufacturers' price reduction promotions, and the oil price rising after midday did not obviously stimulate the downstream purchasing action.

In fact, since entering the "golden nine silver ten", polyester market production and sales over hundred quotations are really numbered. It can be clearly seen from the above chart that over the past month or so, the mainstream production and sales exceeded 100 times, and the sustainability is very short. Especially the anticipation before the national day and the replenishment after the holidays are not very satisfactory. After a small holiday, polyester production and marketing mainly concentrated in the vicinity of 6-8, 11 days after a short period of good, it is still difficult to pick up, the 12 day trading atmosphere fell again, the mainstream production and sales dropped to 5-6.

The stock has just dropped, and it is going to go up again?

Although the mainstream stock of pet is in the gap with the expected low inventory in September, the inventory decline rate is relatively slow, but at least relative to seven or eight months. However, after the national day long holiday, under the constraint of factors such as suspension of production and vacation of downstream weaving factories, the stock of polyester factories has obviously been pressurized.

From the statistics of China's silk net, the overall stock market of polyester market has risen to 14-23 days. In terms of specific products, POY stock has also increased to 6-10 days, FDY stock has risen to 12-17 days, and DTY stock has been around 21-26 days.

Profits fly, and there is still a deficit?

In fact, production and marketing are low and inventory is high. These are not the most distressing. For polyester manufacturers, the worst part is the "deprivation" of this profit. POY, DTY and other products gradually shrink profits, only to maintain the meager profit operation, FDY products is a loss situation.

Specifically, the profit of FDY 150D in the early September was 488 yuan / ton, second only to POY or even higher than DTY. But since October, the profit space has been shrinking rapidly, and there has been a loss situation. At present, the deficit space has reached nearly 100 yuan. The profit of POY 150D decreased from 513 yuan / ton in early September to 140 yuan / ton, which was only a small profit. (Note: the cost involved may vary from manufacturer to manufacturer, so the profit we calculated is only a theoretical profit and loss, and the actual difference is different).

This time even the polyester filament that is difficult to drive by international oil price is, in the final analysis, still lacking the support of demand. Not only during the national day, most of the weaving manufacturers chose to stop production and leave, but by reducing the start-up rate to alleviate the pressure of overstock, the market also showed different overall performance in the market. The overcapacity of conventional products in the market is still obvious, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers is not high. To a certain extent, this greatly reduces the power of weaving factories to stock and purchase raw materials.