The Yarn Market Has Improved, But It Is Still Far From The "Peak Season".

The end of the "golden September" which is not very "golden" has entered the "expectation" of "silver October". On the whole, the yarn Market in September was a failure of the industry's expectations. As of October 10th, the domestic C32S average price was closed at 20452 yuan / ton, almost unchanged from last week.

This year, the market's "down and down" has hurt the spinning industry. From the above picture, we can see that the demand for the downstream has improved since September. Both the cotton yarn and grey cloth have been restored, and the grey fabric inventory has finally fallen from the highest in the past year to the same period last year. Most of the finished product inventory of textile enterprises has also declined, but still higher than last year. At present, spinning enterprises are keeping the strategy of buying and using with cotton, and the basic stock is about a month. Judging from the varieties, pure cotton yarn enterprises are the most affected, and blended yarn and specialty yarn enterprises are relatively good days. Many cotton enterprises have begun to increase the application of non cotton fibers, and disperse varieties to better withstand market risks. In recent months, the mid high count yarn that has been relatively slow in the past few months has been significantly warmer than before. The top 40 comber also appeared to be in short supply.

According to the small survey of National Day holiday, about 68.6% of the enterprises chose the National Day holiday, but more than 30% of them did not have a holiday. About 42.88% of the enterprises in the vacation period are 1-3 days off. Most enterprises have a few days off compared with last year, but there are also nearly 1/3 enterprises that have increased the number of days off compared with last year. It can be seen that because of the cold market this year, fewer orders for textile enterprises, especially when approaching National Day holidays, the market transaction is almost stagnant, so there are more enterprises that choose to leave. But the overall holiday time is relatively short, due to equipment wear and personnel loss, spinning enterprises dare not take too long.

As of October 10th, the FCY Index C32S index was closed at 21190 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between internal and external yarns is relatively close. The import of cotton yarn inventory declined in September, although the overall supply of cotton yarn Market in September was higher than that of cotton yarn prices, but the volume of shipments of traders significantly improved. Customs data showed that the amount of imported cotton yarn in 2019 1-8 was 1 million 256 thousand and 500 tons, down 6.55% from the same period last year, and the import volume decreased by about 90 thousand tons. However, the data did not take into account the fact that part of Pakistan cotton yarn did not enter customs data. In terms of exchange rate, after the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in August, the exchange rate of September was stable or even slightly appreciated. The new round of negotiations between China and the United States is coming soon after the holiday. Although the US Department of Commerce has blacklisted some Chinese companies, the prospect of negotiations between the two countries has become more and more worrying. But according to relevant sources today, there has been a positive correlation between the two countries. The RMB exchange rate has risen sharply by about 700 points, or nearly 1%, the largest since August 13th.

In short, many people's expectations for the peak season have been lost. Although the recent performance of the market has been slightly improved, it can only be described with poor intentions, and can not be compared with the previous years. In the context of international political and economic instability and the Sino US trade war has not been improved, enterprises still have few orders, and prices are hard to rise. At present, the overall profit level of textile enterprises is relatively low, so as to protect customers and protect workers. Although the exchange rate makes the cost of import yarn drop slightly, but because the current cotton market is still in a situation of oversupply, it is still open to question whether the market will take off in the near future.