US Retail Industry, "Winter Is Getting Stronger", Consumption Energy Again Lights Up.

Consumption accounts for about 70% of the US economy, and it is the main engine driving the growth of the US economy. In the near term, the US retail industry, which is closely related to consumption, has fallen, and the negative data superimposed on the "closed shop" has cast a shadow over the US consumer and economic prospects.


Figures released by the US Commerce Department on 16 may show that retail sales in the US decreased by 0.3% in September, down for the first time in seven months, and significantly lower than market expectations. As a key indicator to observe the consumption dynamics of the United States, the unexpected drop in retail sales has hit market confidence. The three major indexes of the New York stock market fell on the 16 day.


In addition to bad data, the US retail industry is still facing a "closed shop tide". Credit Suisse recently released a research report that so far this year, the US retail industry has announced the closure of 7600 stores, a record high in the same period. Among them, the famous American fashion chain brand "forever twenty-one" filed for bankruptcy protection more recently.


Many analysts believe that the poor performance of retail sales is affected by economic and trade frictions. Chris Lapki, chief economist of MITSUBISHI Union Financial Group, said that the downturn in US consumer spending in September is likely to be the result of economic and trade frictions. The decline in retail sales for three consecutive months means that the economy may decline.


Prior to this, the world's big business research institute and University of Michigan and many other institutions have shown that tariffs have a negative impact on consumer confidence in the United States. Many analysts also worry that the slowdown in the US employment market will also affect consumption.


The latest statistics show that although the unemployment rate in the US remained at a low level for 50 years in September, the number of new jobs has obviously slowed down. As of September, there were 161 thousand new jobs in the United States this month, down from 223 thousand last month.


Joel Naroff, chief analyst of the American Lok Fu economic consulting firm, believes that income growth is necessary to maintain strong consumption. Household spending may slow as the economy slows down. Canadian Empire Commercial Bank economist Catherine Jac also said that with the slowdown in employment growth in the United States, consumption will cool down.


Michael Pierce, senior analyst at Kay international macroeconomic consulting firm, believes that the US consumption growth rate in the third quarter is expected to decline from 4.2% in the second quarter to 2.5%, and the overall growth rate of the US economy will be dragged down.


In many analysts' view, "cold and warm" in retail industry is not only important for judging the "speed" of the US consumption engine, but also a key factor affecting market confidence. Mike Lowengat, vice president of investment strategy at the US financial innovation company, said retail sales were a major driver of the US economy and the September retail sales were shrinking.


Lindsay Piegza, chief economist of the United States shyphill financial company, believes that the US economy has already seen a decline in corporate investment and a deterioration in manufacturing activity. However, many investors are still not satisfied with the fact that the US consumption is still strong. After the introduction of retail data, investors' worries increased significantly.


In addition, the unexpected drop in retail sales on that day also contributed significantly to the market's expectation of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October. According to the latest forecast made by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Based on the transaction data of the federal funds futures market, the rate of interest reduction in October is close to 90%.