Europe, Drag! Where Are The Differences? Where Will Europe Go?

The latest news! Britain's departure from Europe will be postponed again.

In October 19th, the house of Commons voted to adopt a key amendment that would force Prime Minister Johnson to seek a further delay in "delaying Europe". Britain is now officially withdrawing from the EU in October 31st.

What is the difference between the two sides? Where will Europe go when the deadline is coming?

On the evening of October 19th, CCTV financial review invited Zhang Jianping, director of the regional research center of the Ministry of Commerce and CCTV financial commentator Liu Ge Visiting studio, in-depth analysis.

Where is the difference between "off" and "no delay"?

News links: Britain's "off Europe" Stalemate

Two thousand and sixteen

In June 23, 2016, with the victory of "Optima", Britain opened its trip to Europe.

Two thousand and seventeen

In March 29, 2017, then Prime Minister Teresa May opened the EU's "off Europe" negotiations.

Two thousand and eighteen

In November 25, 2018, the European Union formally passed two political documents, namely, the withdrawal agreement with Britain and the Declaration on future relations between Britain and Europe, collectively referred to as the "de Europe" agreement, but was subsequently rejected by the British Parliament for the three time.

Two thousand and nineteen

In March 21, 2019, the European Union agreed to extend the term "off Europe" to October 31st. In June 2019, Teresa May resigned because of the difficulty of breaking away from Europe.

Two thousand and nineteen

In July 24, 2019, Boris Johnson, the new leader of the conservative party, became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Two thousand and nineteen

In October 2, 2019, the British government formally submitted a new "off Europe" plan to the European Union.

Zhang Jianping: the biggest difference between Northern Ireland and the European Union is border management.

Zhang Jianping, director of the regional research center of the Ministry of Commerce In 2016, when the referendum was about to break away from Europe, there was a mainstream academic view that the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union was so complex, especially that economic integration has been highly developed. If "off Europe", the first problem is Northern Ireland, because Northern Ireland has no border with Ireland, nor does it have any border management measures. If "off Europe" means, there will be a border wall or border management measures, which are unacceptable to the European Union, Britain, Ireland and Northern Ireland. If we do not set a hard border according to Johnson, it means that the two sides should continue to flow between people and logistics. In the process of tariff collection, Northern Ireland belongs to the independent customs territory of the United Kingdom, but it will also accept EU rule management. Such a mode should be unprecedented. The regulation of goods circulation will be very complicated.

Liu Ge: the differences are changing. The status of Northern Ireland is the focus.

CCTV financial commentator Liu Ge Many people may have noticed that the British Parliament rejected the "off Europe" agreement for the first three times this year, and the gap between the opposition and the support vote is narrowing. This may reflect anxiety, which in the long run has made some people tend to end this matter.

But in fact, when the time comes to balance, contradictions may become even more difficult to reconcile. In addition to the main conservative and labour parties in the British Parliament, there are also political forces representing many different interests. So, the reality is that the focus is always changing. Now more and more focuses on Northern Ireland. Now the plan is an innovation, which makes Northern Ireland both belong to the British customs territory while obeying the EU rules within a certain period.

Where will the deadline go to Europe?

Zhang Jianping: the process of European integration will continue

Zhang Jianping, director of the regional research center of the Ministry of Commerce Now the Labour Party in Britain and the DUP in Northern Ireland are highly dissatisfied with the new plan of "off Europe" and even say that the agreement is even worse than Teresa's plan, because Teresa's plan and Britain remain in the EU's unified customs territory. There is no such arrangement in the new case, which means that Britain and Europe should be divided into different tariff zones.

In economics, when the tariff and non-tariff barriers are eliminated, it will have the effect of trade creation and investment increase, and the growth of employment. But when you want to separate, you need to set up tariff barriers, and investment barriers may also arise. In this process, how to deal with the trade agreement between Britain and Europe, there is no plan yet.

In addition, as long as there are new customs areas, each has to pay the price, that is, trade should be transferred. The trade between them may be replaced by the third party. This will have a negative impact on the trade status of the UK, including its position as a global financial centre. But as far as Europe is concerned, as the United Kingdom used to be a financial center, many financial institutions and multinationals have taken the UK as the bridgehead and springboard of Europe to radiate the whole European market. Once "off Europe", many financial institutions or multinational companies have to build their branches to Frankfurt, Luxemburg and even Zurich.

Liu Ge: off Europe is a double lose, but Britain is more damaged.

CCTV financial commentator Liu Ge It's been three years since the European Union broke out. From what we feel now, the two sides should say "double lose", but Britain's losses are obviously bigger. From the June 2016 referendum to the present, the British pound and euro ratio have changed from 1:1.3 to 1:1.1, and the pound and US dollar ratio has changed from 1:1.5 to 1:1.2. This is very intuitive. In the short term, once Britain is able to get some benefits from the "off Europe", at least the original "money" need not be handed over; however, in the long term, many industries will be affected, and it is hard to say how big the impact is now.

Liu Ge: the EU agreement will continue even if it is affected.

CCTV financial commentator Liu Ge For the British public, there are many, whether British or European, or other commercial organizations in the rest of the world, may want to take a heart to heart, and hurl it up. The result is good, and the market needs certainty. But now, looking at this fragmented state, whether adopted today or postponed for a few days, even if it is passed or not, this effect will continue.