PTA Will Face A Further Downward Shift Of Price Center In The Pattern Of Accumulation

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of the domestic PTA spot market continued to weaken in October 9th, and the average price of the market in October 20th ended at 5037 yuan / ton, down 3.28%, down 31.98% from the same period last year.

Recently, many sets of device maintenance of PTA have pushed the industry into the inventory cycle. However, due to the full supply of mobile sources and the pressure of new devices coming into operation, the PTA rebound is not strong enough. At the same time, the raw material inventory of polyester factory is on the high side, and there is no continuous transaction volume, and the demand side is insufficient. Specifically:

In terms of installation, PTA sets up more than 86.89% sets of equipment, and the load starts in October 17th, down by 4.16% from 91.05% in October 9th. However, in the expectation that new production capacity will be put into production soon, the positive boost is limited. In particular, recently, the single unit test run of the PTA project with an annual output of 1.2 million tons of China Thailand Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has come to an end, marking that the linkage test run of PTA plant is about to start, which will help fuel the feeding test run of PTA plant. The expected news of the production has a certain negative impact on the market.

The price trend of raw material market PX is temporarily stable, and the price of domestic mainstream factories is 6800 yuan / ton. In terms of units, the operation of the 600000 ton new unit in Hongrun is stable, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical unit is stable, 50% of Urumqi petrochemical unit is started, one line of Fuhai Chuang aromatics unit is started, and other units are temporarily stable during the maintenance of CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical unit.

In Asia, the operating rate of PX devices is stable at around 8 per cent, and prices continue to be explored. In October 17th, the closing price of the p-xylene market in Asia dropped by US $4 / ton, closing at a price of 773-775 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 793-795 US dollars / ton CFR China.

Downstream polyester start-up load is maintained at around 89%, partial preferential sales, but production and sales are generally reacted, and the market trend is moderate. At present, weaving elastic inquiry has fallen sharply, and some mainstream factories have reduced their preferential policies, including polyester POY (150D / 48F) at 7150-7400 yuan / ton, DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) at 8950-9200 yuan / ton, and FDY (150D / 96F) at 7350-7550 yuan / ton, creating a new low in the history of the year. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been reduced to around 77%, the terminal market is cautious and wait-and-see mood is not reduced, and the grey fabric inventory digestion is slow.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that the PTA factory overhaul information will certainly support the price formation. But considering the new device of 1 million 100 thousand tons of new Feng Ming, it plans to trial run at the end of October. Hengli will launch 2 million 200 thousand tons early next year at the beginning of January. In the near future, the downstream polyester demand has gradually transited to the off-season. Influenced by the uncertain macro environment at home and abroad, the terminal textile and garment industry is in decline, and the polyester production and marketing volume is limited. It is expected that PTA market will face a pattern of accumulation. In addition, the cost support is limited under the circumstances of large-scale PX production capacity and low crude oil price. According to the comprehensive analysis, PTA may still have a small rebound in the short term, but in the long term, the focus will further move down.