Long Sawing Long Lines Or Pushing High Cotton Prices After The Sino US Agreement Is Reached

In November 5th, ICE futures edged up under a small speculative buying. According to the US Department of agriculture, as of November 3rd, the new cotton harvest in the United States was 53%, an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous week, which is also faster than the same period in previous years.

At the moment, the market is very confident that China and the US are very close to reaching a phased agreement, but China still insists on the abolition of all the added tariffs, which is the key to the continuation of the negotiations. Analysts believe that if the phased agreement is really close to the point of success, then the United States may make some concessions on tariffs.

This week, traders paid close attention to the US cotton export weekly and USDA supply and demand forecast on Thursday and Friday. Last month, USDA cut the forecast of US cotton exports to 16 million 500 thousand packs, but still 14 years high. Because India's cotton production is high and China's imports are hard to increase, it is difficult for us cotton exports to achieve this goal. Global supply and demand projections on Friday may provide new guidelines for fundamentals.

The recent ICE futures deal is quite strong, reaching 4-5 hands, indicating that the tug of war between short selling hedge, speculative selling and long line bulls is becoming more and more intense. The latter idea is that after the agreement reached between China and the United States, cotton prices will continue to rise until next year.

At present, Pakistan continues to purchase large quantities of imported cotton. Domestic assessment agencies say that due to heavy rain, floods, pests and high temperatures this year, the output forecast has dropped from 12 million 700 thousand packages to 10 million 200 thousand packages this year, and the import volume of cotton is expected to reach 5 million packs. However, due to the tense situation in India, Pakistan is unable to import cotton.