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Fourth Quarter Polyester Filament Market: No Drop Or Warmer, But Not For Long.

2019/11/13 11:49:00 0

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Since entering the fourth quarter, the pressure of polyester filament production and marketing has become increasingly prominent, and enterprises have been reducing sales promotions. At present, the upstream has fallen to the low level of history, and the profits of polyester filament continue to shrink, and the market is short playing, can the cold winter reappear the Warm Yang?

Through interviews with more than 40 enterprises, such as polyester filament and downstream elastic and weaving, it is known that the expectation of the industry is now empty. As shown in the figure below, the price and profit level of domestic polyester filament in the three quarter is at a high level in the year. Although some of the industry is expected to have a downward trend, more than 10% of the industry is expected to see a bullish trend. In October, the ten peak season of Silver did not appear again, the demand was further shrinking, and the inventory of enterprises gradually accumulated. The expectation of market bearish was aggravating gradually, and the promotion efficiency of enterprises was very little.

Comparison of polyester filament yarn and downstream market expectations

Source: lung Chung

Since September, the cash flow of FDY has been narrowed, until the end of the month, the cash flow of FDY mainstream models is in a loss, and the situation of losses has persisted so far. At the same time, POY profits have continued to shrink, and enterprises' willingness to lower prices has not been strong. However, in view of the reality of low demand, the industry generally believes that the polyester filament Market in November still has a downward trend.

According to long data, as of this year, the newly produced polyester filament production capacity is 2 million 350 thousand tons. In the second half of this year, Hengli, Hengyi and Warburg still have a production plan. The supply is growing too fast, and the supply and demand difference of polyester filament is expanding.

Statistics of polyester filament plant put into operation in 2019

Corporate name	Annual capacity	Planned production time	Device address	accessory products
Jiangsu Lixin chemical fibre	Ten	Two thousand and nineteen year Three month Five day	Wujiang City	cation FDY
Fujian Jingwei new fiber	Twenty	Two thousand and nineteen year Three month Ten day	Changle City	POY
Jiaxing ypeng two	Twenty-five	Two thousand and nineteen year Four month Fifteen day	Jiaxing City	FDY
New Feng Ming middle jump phase 1	Thirty	Two thousand and nineteen year Seven month Ten day	Huzhou City	POY
Tong Kun Heng worries	Thirty	Two thousand and nineteen year Eight month Twenty-two day	Jiaxing City	POY
Tong Kun Heng worry technical transformation project	Thirty	Two thousand and nineteen year Eight month Twenty-two day	Jiaxing City	POY
Tong Kun Heng Bang phase four	Thirty	Two thousand and nineteen year Eight month Thirteen day	Jiaxing City	POY
Tong Kun Heng Teng four	Thirty	Two thousand and nineteen year Nine month Sixteen Daily commissioning	Huzhou City	POY
New Feng Ming Zhong Yue two	Thirty	Two thousand and nineteen year Ten month Twenty-five Daily commissioning	Huzhou City	POY

Source: lung Chung

Since November, the downstream bombs have been faced with difficulties such as shortage of funds and the shrinking of terminal textile orders. Many measures have been taken to reduce risks and avoid risks. After the National Day holiday, Ningbo Cixi and other places began to rebound slightly after the National Day holiday, and Xiaoshao and other bomb companies also started to decline.

To sum up, the polyester filament market is now in a bad market. However, most of today's polyester filament enterprises focus on sales promotion, production and marketing is higher than the industry's psychological expectations, and high-end production and sales are between 200% and 300%, and the average production and sales are 150%-160%. Another part of the company said that today's production and marketing is mediocre, and tomorrow plans to expand the discount rate. First, raw materials PTA, ethylene glycol has dropped to a historical low level, and the short term continued to decline in the limited space, and the rebound in black products in the short term has led to a slight rebound in PTA market. The current polyester filament profit has continued to shrink. The above mentioned loss of FDY cash flow has been more than a month, and the profit margins of POY have been narrowed down. It is on the line of profit and loss balance. Under the pressure of cost, enterprises have a certain rising desire. Third, the current stock level of polyester filament enterprises is still acceptable. Although inventory has accumulated trend since September, the inventory level is acceptable compared with the beginning of the year, POY is mostly in 7-15 days, FDY stocks are mostly in 14-19 days, DTY stocks are mostly 19-25 days, and individual high-end 35-40 days. Xiaobian believes that sales and sales are mainly due to support from three aspects:

And at this stage, the market atmosphere is pessimistic, buying up and selling sentiment is high. Simply falling prices may not promote the transaction, because some enterprises plan to raise prices to boost the market atmosphere. But can the market have a warming sun? At present, terminal demand continues to shrink, the contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent. With the launch of PTA devices such as China and Thailand, it is expected that PTA still has downward expectations, so the upstream and downstream support is insufficient, and the production and sale of polyester filament pulse type is expected to last for a long time.