The Inflection Point Of The Property Market? Second Hand Housing Prices Are Down, Cities Are Over Rising.

House price inflection point appeared?

In November 15th, the National Bureau of statistics released the statistical data of the sale price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in 2019 October. Data show that one or two, three lines of new urban housing and second-hand housing sales prices have risen.

In addition, there are 17 cities housing prices fell, the number of consecutive three months to maintain growth. Superimposed the previously released sales data, real estate sales area for the first time to return to positive growth, the property market "price change volume" results highlighted.

Many analysts told reporters in the twenty-first Century economic report that the price of new houses fell and the number of cities continued to increase. The price of second-hand housing fell. For the first time in 54 months, the city reversed more than the rising cities. There are many signs that if there is no obvious policy adjustment, the market turning point will appear.

Reversal of key indicators

Overall, the price of new premises in the 4 tier cities rose by 0.1%, or 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Second hand housing sales price rose 0.1%, or 0.2 percentage points lower than last month. 31 second tier cities, new and second-hand housing prices rose by 0.5% and 0.1% respectively, or 0.1 percentage points lower than last month. The price of new and second-hand houses in the 35 three line cities rose 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, or 0.2 percentage points lower than last month.

"In October 2019, commercial housing sales prices rose steadily," said Kong Peng, chief statistician of the National Bureau of statistics.

However, judging from the number of cities adjusted for housing prices, there are obvious signs of market adjustment.

In October, the price of new houses in 50 cities rose, the number being the lowest since February 2018. Among the three Midwest cities of Xining, Hohhot and Nanning, the price of new houses rose by 2.8%, 2.4% and 2% in October, the only three cities that rose more than 2%. In addition, Chengdu ranked sixth in 70 large and medium cities with a rise of 1.5%.

However, the decline in the number of cities has continued since July. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in October, there were 17 new urban housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. This is also the 25 month high since September 2017. Among them, the largest decline was Ji'nan and Luzhou, a decrease of 1%. The first tier cities, Beijing and Guangzhou, fell by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.

Second hand housing, in October, 70 cities nationwide second-hand housing sales price index increased by 0.1%, an increase of 4.2% over the same period. Whether the ring data or year-on-year data, in fact, showing a trend of narrowing.

Not only that, Yang Hongxu, vice president of the E-House Research Institute, told the economic report twenty-first Century that a stronger signal index was that the number of second-hand housing prices fell from 28 in September to 35, while that in cities with a rise of only 28. The decline is more than the increase. This is the first time since April 2015.

In fact, in May 2015, when the property market started to enter the current cycle, a similar reversal occurred. Over the past year, the number of second-hand housing prices dropped more than that of the increase. From this month, the number of more than a drop in the number.

In Yang Hongxu's view, there are distortions in the price of new houses, such as price limits and other administrative restrictions in some cities. Therefore, second-hand housing price changes can better reflect the real situation of the real estate market. Moreover, from the cycle perspective, the price change of second-hand housing is ahead of the price of new houses. The number of second-hand housing prices has dropped and the number of urban housing has changed.

Under such a logic, Yang Hongxu thought, "the market is half in the winter."

Will the price change continue?

Many analysts have pointed out to the twenty-first Century economic report that the continuous price promotions from developers since September are the main reasons for this phenomenon.

Since the first half of this year, tightening the financing of Housing enterprises has become the main keynote of market regulation. Bank loans, trust, bonds and other channels have tightened up. In the second half of the year, with the double pressure of debt repayment peak period and sales spurting period, some housing enterprises began to choose price promotions, relieve financial pressure and achieve annual sales targets.

A typical case is that in October, property developers in Ji'nan had reduced the price of new houses by 1%, which was the first in 70 cities.

Macro data also confirm this. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, 1-10 months, the sales area of commercial housing was 1 billion 332 million 510 thousand square meters, an increase of 0.1% over the same period last year. Last year, for the first time this year, the growth rate of sales reached a record high base.

In response, Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, said that the effect of "price change" in the new housing market has been revealed. From the sale of benchmarking companies, sales and sales increased significantly in October, but sales prices fell. It is estimated that the sales volume of newly built commercial housing will increase by 1% over the same period last year, which is basically the same as last year.

Xu Xiaole believes that the price of new homes may continue to fall. In October, the new growth area of commercial housing and commercial housing in China continued to expand year-on-year, and the supply at the later stage increased. As for the city, with the decline of the sales of the three or four tier cities in the late stage, the price of Yishoufang prices in the 70 cities will gradually be transmitted from one line to three or four lines.

Therefore, whether the follow-up policy will be adjusted has become the focus of attention.

Yang Hongxu pointed out that from the perspective of real estate regulation, the cycle has changed. Over the past four years, it has been rising sharply, and the next one or two years must be turned to a sharp fall.

Central Plains real estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei believes that the overall slowdown in housing price trend has emerged, but for the fourth quarter of 2019 market trend, one must look at the credit policy at the end of the year, including the adjustment of LPR in 11-12 months, and whether it will reduce the accuracy. Two, we need to see whether the fluctuation of talent policies in recent years will affect the market.

In fact, with the phasing of the "big exam" in 2020, the adjustment of household registration policy and talent policy has been intensified. Among them, including Hainan, Shanghai, Nanjing and other places, have issued a fine adjustment of talent policy since October.

But some analysts told the twenty-first Century economic report that the central government's "no real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term" has not changed. The "three stable" tone of the property market has not changed. The local government accountability mechanism has not changed. The policy of limiting the sale of the core of the current regulation, limiting prices and restricting loans is unlikely to be adjusted substantially.