Textile And Apparel: In October, The Zero Growth Rate Slowed Down, And The Growth Rate Of 11 Net Transactions Increased.

A week's review: this week CITIC textile and clothing index -3.54%, including textile manufacturing and brand clothing respectively -3.92%/-3.17%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index -2.41%. From the valuation point of view, textile manufacturing / brand clothing ring -3.84%/-2.51% respectively, reaching 54.79/30.75. From the point of view of individual stock performance, ANN, Jen Sheng group and Semir clothing are among the top gainers. Saturday, xunxing shares and Bo Bao long are the top ones.

Hot spots this week: 2019 pairs of eleven platforms maintain high growth and diversified clothing consumption. On November 11, 2019, the total transaction volume of the whole network was 410 billion 100 million yuan RMB, which increased 30.5% compared to the same period in the high base number. The growth rate was 6.7PCTs higher than that of last year, mainly due to the deep excavation of the platform to the sunken market (such as Jingdong, more and more efforts to sink the market subsidies, etc.), the upgrading of marketing methods and contents (such as red belt goods, private sector traffic mining, variety show drainage, etc.), as well as the expansion of external platforms, such as Taobao's entry into Alipay's small procedures, etc.

Sub platform, Tmall double eleven sales of 268 billion 400 million, an increase of 25.7% over the same period, accounting for the first rate of the whole network, reaching 65.5%. Jingdong's double eleven global good things Festival (November 1st to November 11th) has a cumulative order of 204 billion 400 million yuan, an increase of 27.9% over the same period, and its sales volume was 70 billion 500 million, accounting for 17.2%, ranking second. Vip.com's activities were ahead of schedule this year, sales reached 10 billion 700 million yuan during the double eleven period, an increase of 27.9% over the same period (2.6%). The rising stars show a lot of bright eyes, up 165% to 25 billion yuan over the same period, accounting for an increase of 3.1PCTs to 6.1%.

Specifically to the category of spinning fabrics, the brand ranking of each plate changed slightly: in the men's wear Top10 brand, UNIQLO and GXG sat the top two, while Playboys and Bosideng rankings increased by 4, ranking third and fourth respectively. In the Top10 brand of women's clothing, Bosideng shows a bright eye, ranking only second behind UNIQLO. In addition, under the trend of live goods, net red brand Jupe vendue (ranking from ninth to fifth) and Chinstudio (enter the top ten) rise. In the sports sector, with the increase in consumer acceptance of domestic brands, the growth of domestic products led to strong growth, and Anta / Lining /361 degrees sales increased by 63%/50%/60% compared to the same period last year. Children's wear plate, Barbara leader has obvious advantages, ranking for eleven consecutive years for many years, while children's sportswear is growing rapidly, Nike and Anta ranked the highest in Tmall's mother and infant brand, among which Anta was the brightest, ranking sixth in the sales of children's wear in Ali platform.

Industry data & Information:

Brand clothing: in October, the zero growth rate slowed down, and the demand for textile and clothing was weak.

In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7.2% (-0.6PCTs). According to the category, the growth of consumer demand is more robust, and grain, oil, food and daily necessities are up +9.0%/+12.0% (-1.4/-0PCTs respectively). Optional consumption continued to weaken, while cosmetics maintained a rapid growth of 6.2%, but the growth rate was -7.2PCTs, while household appliances and audio equipment / clothing shoes and hats, needle textiles / jewelry, respectively, grew by +0.7%/-0.8%/-5.5% compared to the same period, the growth rate was -4.7/-4.4/+1.1PCTs respectively.

Specific to the category of spinning clothing, the retail sales in October increased by -0.8% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate was -4.4/-5.5PCTs compared with the same period last year. From the cumulative data, the year-on-year growth rate of +2.8% was -0.5/-5.6PCTs / year-on-year respectively. From the point of view of channels, 1 - October, the online retail sales of wearing physical goods increased by +7.1% compared to the same period of the year, and the growth rate of clothing retail sales above the limit of +2.6% was -11.5PCTs compared with -0.4PCTs. The growth of apparel products on line and offline has declined, or affected by double eleven activities, lagging behind in consumption, and under the background of weak terminal demand. This year is late in winter, and the short selling of new products in winter is due to pressure.

Textile production: cotton prices rose steadily this week, and USDA cut cotton production. This week cotton 328 price index closed at 13077 yuan / ton, unit price ring / / year-on-year change of +31/-2508 yuan, domestic cotton prices rose steadily, or because of foreign trade market sentiment to ease, superimpose new cotton production expectations. Meanwhile, in October, USDA lowered domestic cotton production expectations, resulting in a reduction of 109 thousand tons of final inventory and a -1.26PCTs of warehouse sales. The gap between supply and demand expanded to 644 thousand tons. From the inventory situation, cotton business inventories / industrial inventories in October were 309.36/70.96 million tons, respectively, with a ring ratio of +89.01/+0.82 million tons. Although business inventories rose sharply, the growth rate narrowed by 418 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, which was mainly affected by the weakening of consumption. The purchasing progress of enterprises was slower than in previous years. The days of yarn / grey fabric inventory were 24/28 days, -3.29/-0.72 days respectively, or the increase in textile production (yarn / cloth production ratio +1.2%/+0.2%).

Industry perspective and investment advice: in the context of the weak demand of the industry as a whole, the leading industry with better growth will be selected. Judging from the valuation point of view, the leading brands of clothing brands are at historically low levels. It is recommended to pay attention to Semir clothing (13X 2020), which has obvious advantages in leading children's clothing, (2020, 13X), industry and company are expected to usher in the turning point of the wig leader, Rebecca (2020), and the leading sports brand with the leading advantages and multi brand collaborative development, Anta sports (2020).