Who Is Actively Taking The Land? By The End Of The Year, The Rate Of Filming In Non First Tier Cities Dropped.

At the end of the year, the capital flow of Housing enterprises was mainly in East China and Southern China, and Housing enterprises in the stage of scale growth were still actively taking the place.

The same policy research institute data show that as of October 1, 2019, the rate of land filming in non tier cities dropped to 0; in 2018, the land market circulation rate was 0, which is worth noting that in non tier cities, the land supply area in September this year was 1 million 360 thousand square meters, compared with the 1 million 820 thousand square meter supply in August, while the land supply area in September last year was not as good as that in the same period this year, but the supply volume increased slightly compared with last year's August. An insider pointed out that this year's land market return to reason, housing enterprises will increase investment willingness.

58 Zhang Bo, chief analyst of Anju Real Estate Research Institute, analyzed the change of the land market: first, from the perspective of Housing enterprises financing, the scale was reduced by half. In the short term, the debt risk of enterprises was reduced correspondingly. After entering November, the policy level still tightened, the industry would not change greatly, and sales in December and December were very stressful. Secondly, from the perspective of the transformation of the housing enterprises camp, we can see that the flow of funds at the end of this year is in the middle position of the 100 billion housing enterprises, such as the top 11-25 Housing enterprises, and the growth rate is very high in 11 and December.

In addition, the top 30-50 of the housing prices in the second half of the financing pressure is very large, in the sales side and take the end of the promotion of more radical, such housing prices this year, 1-10 month sales growth year-on-year growth rate of 25%, is expected to maintain this growth level in 11 and December this year.

On the whole, at the end of the year, the investment of the head housing enterprises is conservative, and the medium housing prices are more radical. When the small and medium scale housing enterprises enter the new growth cycle of 100 billion sales targets, they accelerate investment, development and transfer, and go to the diversified industrial mode.

Turnover slipped

The land market is a weathervane of the industry. Although the land market of non tier cities is kept hot, the surrounding projects of the first tier cities have already begun to reduce prices.

Chen Yu (a pseudonym) recently wanted to buy a first-hand housing in Taicang surrounding Shanghai, which is about 15 thousand yuan / square meter in the area. Due to the restriction of Taicang, according to the purchase restriction policy issued by Suzhou in the second half of this year, foreigners in Taicang within 3 years must meet the requirements of buying social security for two consecutive years. Many real estate projects have given flexible policies: first paying down payment and deposit, and then satisfying the social security conditions two years later.

The reporter asked a sales office in Taicang, the salesman said that although there was no obvious preferential treatment, buyers had two years' capital buffer period, but they had risks to enterprises. He pointed out that buyers can also buy a house after two years of social security.

Property buyers in some cities are also beginning to shrink. Zhang Jiang (a pseudonym) wants to buy a house in Hangzhou, but it does not have the conditions for buying a house. In order to meet the conditions, it needs to pay a fee. Zhang Jiang feels that after the cost is removed, the income from buying a house will be greatly reduced, thus abandoning the investment plan in Hangzhou.

Zhang Bo previously interviewed pointed out that if the first three quarters of the housing enterprises annual performance completion rate of less than 70%, then the pressure to achieve the goal will increase significantly. This year, many housing companies have sprint ahead of the first half of May, but because the overall market is weak, the completion of most regions is unoptimistic.

Zhang Bo pointed out that the soil pat is a barometer of the real estate market. In 2019, the volume of land market has narrowed down year by year, and the trend of land market has been changed. The land market racket is a reflection of the fact that housing prices are "not buying" part of the market, which is even more frightening than blind scale.

The three or four line and the following cities are concentrated in the land auction. From the number of land filming in 2019, the cities in the front rank are Jinhua, Jining, Nanyang, Weifang, Changde and Huaian. The low willingness of Housing enterprises and the cooling of the market are important factors for the cooling of such urban land. The pace of housing withdrawal from small and medium-sized cities is also accelerating.

Housing prices return to the second tier is a fact. Shenzhen and Beijing's racket market are facing a hot situation this year. The high quality plots in the first tier cities are letting housing companies want to stop.

In November 21st, the Shenzhen soil patten, which launched the 6 limit price homestead, ended up with 14 Housing enterprises and the total price of 12 billion 751 million yuan. Compared with Beijing, Shenzhen is more special. In June, the sale of several homestead in Shenzhen had obvious effect. At the same time, the rate of land filming in the first tier cities is also continuing to decline. In 1-5 months or even no land auction, Hefei, Ningbo and other cities in the second tier cities are also causing frequent concern.

Zhang Bo pointed out that there are still Housing enterprises in the radical take place, especially in the Guangdong, Hongkong and Macau Bay area, the Yangtze River Delta, the ring Bohai and other hot urban groups are more obvious. Because of the heavy housing layout of these housing enterprises, many cities with strong demand for housing support, the project has relatively strong anti risk ability. However, it is worth noting that if the high priced land occupied by itself is too high, the future risk can not be ignored.

Therefore, the head enterprise will take time to avoid risks during this period. On the one hand, the 2016-2017 year's land King project is facing many difficulties in many cities. On the other hand, the debt rate is too high to reduce or even suspend the housing prices this year, and the land premium rate continues to decline.

Who is taking the land?

Housing prices will not only rush ahead, but also advance the plan. In the first half of this year, most housing enterprises have opened the curtain of land reserve.

For example, Ho Jie, executive director and chief executive officer of Hongyang real estate, once said that in the first half of the year, a total of 35 plots were acquired, with a new construction area of 4 million 70 thousand square meters. Among them, cooperation takes 91%. According to Shen Guangping, chief financial officer of Hongyang real estate, in 2019, the 50%-60% will be used to get the amount of money back in 2018. According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 40 sites in the first 10 months of this year.

Hongyang real estate is not concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta. In the Yangtze River Delta integration development, involving 26 cities, in addition to the leading Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou and other cities are also the core strength. The Yangtze River Delta region has long been the highland occupied by many housing companies. Billion yuan, such as Biguiyuan, China, Greenland holdings, poly development, Vanke Real Estate and so on, are worth more than 100 billion in the Yangtze River Delta region.

With a large number of Housing enterprises weighing heavily on the Yangtze River Delta, the market competition in the region is also fierce. The hidden worries brought about by the big layout of Housing enterprises can not be ignored.

And Hongyang real estate is Xi'an, Changsha, Yancheng, Xiangyang, Fuyang, Jiangmen, Wenzhou and other strong second tier cities or three cities with large inflow of population. The amount it took in October this year was around 29 billion, accounting for about 60% of 2018's annual sales of 47 billion 300 million.

Recently, Hongyang real estate such housing prices slowed down the pace of taking, then what housing prices are still taking place? Housing prices in the scale of growth cycle such as Zhongjun, Dafa, Zhongliang, Baolong and other land reserve.

In November 15th, Zhongliang real estate won the Nantong Rudong residential block with a base price of 390 million yuan. In November 20th, Dafa first entered Wuxi and won the new Wu block with 1 billion 450 million yuan. On the same day, Zhong Jun real estate 770 million yuan Foshan to take the land. In addition, reporters learned that Baolong has also been recovered in the Tai Wan area.

A housing market researcher believes that this year's trend rate is almost the same as last year, which is related to the land reserve price. At the end of the year, the rate of racket fell, compared with the same period of last year, because the supply volume dropped a lot. Compared with the market, the market was bad this year, plus the trust was stuck, and the housing enterprises had difficulty in financing. The local government knew that selling land was not easy, so before the general auction, they would find a good buyer to pick up the plate and "do not hang it up." The person also pointed out that at the end of the year, there were not many rich housing companies, and the housing enterprises in the scale growth cycle valued the opportunity. Mainly in the past October sales return money is good, but whether this trend can continue, see next year's market environment.