Supply Pressure Is Expected To Increase, And Some Enterprises Of Direct Spinning PET Staple Will Announce Maintenance Plan Ahead Of Schedule.

Recently, the operating rate of direct spinning polyester staple industry has been dropping faster, and the production enterprises have reported the year-end maintenance plan in succession, which is obviously ahead of schedule in the past years, and also indicates that the supply pressure of the industry is increasing when demand is weak.

Although there are still some new capacity in the direct spinning polyester staple industry this year, the decline in the cost of polymerization has made the price advantage of straight spinning staple obviously, and gradually replaced some other cotton textile materials in some fields, so that the operating rate of the production enterprises is usually kept at a high level of 80%-88%, and the inventory level of the company is well controlled during the year. The average stock of the industry in 1-11 months is only about 7 days.

But after the four quarter, all kinds of pressure came to the surface. The terminal demand continued to be weak. In the background of the high inventory of the cotton mill and the cloth mill, the phenomenon of selling was constantly increasing, and some factories indicated that they would stop in advance at the end of the year. The upstream PTA and MEG new capacity is also concentrated in the fourth quarter of the production, although the current direct spinning polyester staple fiber enterprise inventory level is still not high, but no support, lack of boost, in order to avoid the market after the warehouse and loss pressure, enterprises still control inventory as the main purpose. So this week, the starting rate of direct spun polyester staple slipped from 87.15% to 83.87%, and the rate of decline was relatively fast, mainly because some enterprises began to implement production reduction or overhaul, and some local manufacturers reported a year-end maintenance plan gradually, according to the planned time, obviously earlier than the same period last year.

Maintenance schedule for direct spinning polyester staple fiber in recent years

As shown in the previous table, except for the planned maintenance of Shanghai's far spinning, the remaining 740 thousand tons of equipment have been announced and the majority of enterprises have said that there will be a maintenance / production reduction plan at the end of the year.

As shown above, in addition to the low operating rate in 2016, the industry remained in a high starting state for 2017-2019 years, and the industry started to decline only after October 2018, due to the PTA market movement. Generally speaking, the operation rate of polyester staple industry will decrease significantly in January. The maintenance plan will be announced ahead of schedule in December of the previous year. But this year, the planning time for enterprises has been slightly more than the same period in previous years. The rate of decline in the rate of industrial start up has also been accelerating. It also marks the end of the relatively relatively optimistic supply and demand environment in the past three years.

In December, the new production of polyester raw materials was more concentrated, mainly the 4 million tons /PX project of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, which was first put into operation in December, and the remaining 1 million 100 thousand tons of new PTA were put into operation at the end of November. The 1 million new tons of China and Thailand and 2 million 500 thousand tons of PTA PTA were planned to go into operation at the end of December. In the lower reaches of the field, there is an early shutdown in the case of large inventory and capital pressure. Therefore, it is expected that the starting rate of polyester staple fiber and downstream industries will be lowered in advance at the end of the year, and in 2020, under the combined pressure, the industry will temporarily say goodbye to the high start-up era.