The A Share Of "Breaking Up" And "Breaking": Institutions Find New Centers, And Foreign Investment Is Suddenly Different.

"Broken net" and "break" become the key words in the recent A share market.

According to the twenty-first Century economic news reporter statistics, as of November 28th closing, A shares have 375 shares fell below the net assets per share, breaking the net rate of more than 10%, the number and proportion are close to the historical highs since 2005.

Analysts combined with past market trends believe that this may be the A stock valuation center downward, the market is already near the bottom of the mark.

Reporter analysis of institutional shareholding changes can be found that 70.67% of the broken net shares suffered institutional reduction this year. At the same time, some of the broken net banking stocks gained large holdings in the year. North capital has also recently increased several bank stocks.

On the other hand, with the advance of the registration system of the Chuang Chuang plate, breakage appears gradually under the market pricing. Recently, the 601916.SH issued by the main board was also a rare situation that broke through the first day of listing. The postal savings bank (601658.SH) launched the green shoe mechanism.

In addition to the overall downward movement of the valuation center in the one or two tier market, more market participants believe that the market pricing is gradually playing a role under the pilot registration system.

Breaking the net distribution of big data

After excluding 42 stocks with negative net assets, the 3734 stocks of A share broke 375 stocks, breaking the net rate of 10.04%, and the number and proportion were close to the all-time high since 2005.

"Broken net shows that the share price of a listed company falls below the net assets per share. It may mean that those companies who are below net assets can pay attention to investors, whether they have investment value or not, but also consider the company's performance and net asset profitability, especially ROE." Yang Delong, managing director and chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, pointed out to the economic report reporters in twenty-first Century 28 November.

From the point of view of the industry, the net share is mainly concentrated in banks, real estate and cyclical industries.

In terms of quantity, the real estate industry ranked first in 46 stocks, followed by mining, public utilities and transportation. 27 of them broke down, followed by 24 banks, 23 building decorations and 22 commercial trades.

In proportion, the proportion of bank shares accounted for 70.59% of the net share, followed by 50% of iron and steel, 40.91% of mining, 35.11% of real estate, 23.28% of transportation, and 22.92% of commercial trade.

It is worth noting that in 2005 and 2008, the two banks broke away from the net, and the banking stocks were all in retreat. In the 4 times since 2013, the net share of banks has exceeded 60%, and the net rate has fallen below 1.

"Because of the relatively large profit base, the profit growth rate of bank stocks is slowing down, and many banks are growing in a single digit figure, so the price earnings ratio and the net market rate have declined considerably." Yang Delong said.

The wave of this wave almost swept all industries. As of the closing of November 28th, only 28 industries in the Shen Yi class industry, only the leisure service industry has not yet broken.

In terms of market value, 375 stocks are mainly concentrated in small cap stocks.

Among them, there are 246 small cap stocks with a market capitalization of less than 10 billion yuan, accounting for 65.6% of the total, and 102 shares in the market value range from 10 billion yuan to 50 billion yuan, accounting for 27.2%. Small and medium-sized stocks are scattered in many industries.

Market capitalization of more than 50 billion of large cap stocks occupy 27 seats, mainly for banks, oil construction and other heavy assets in the cyclical industry.

Yang Delong pointed out that from the broken industry, banks and cyclical stocks are the main force, and coal, real estate, cultural media, banks, automobiles, chemical industries and other sectors have broken much more, which, to a certain extent, also shows that the economic transformation has promoted the consumption of white dragon horse stocks, and the traditional industrial cyclical industry has seen a net outflow of funds.

"It should be reasonable to say that the number of broken net should be increased. This also shows that the market is at the bottom of history. As investors begin to copy some of the net stocks, the market may go up gradually." Yang Delong thinks.

On the capital flow, most of the net shares were abandoned by institutional capital. But further refinement shows that the choice of funds presents a trend of differentiation.

Comparing the three quarterly reports in 2019 and the proportion of institutional shareholdings in 2018 annual reports, we can find that 265 stocks in 375 broken stocks have been reduced by agencies this year, accounting for 70.67%. The extent of the reduction is not as bad as those of La Natsu Bell, Dongxu blue sky and Hainan Airlines.

Most of the holdings were bank shares, such as Bank of Changsha (601577.SH), Chengdu Bank (601838.SH) and Jiangyin Bank (002807.SZ).

For more than 70% of the stocks have been broken bank sector, foreign capital has also been substantially increased.

Data show that since November, the capital of north capital has broken sharply, and the bank shares, 601398.SH, 601169.SH, 601939.SH and so on have been bought over 100 million yuan.

At present, the consensus among the respondents is that for some industries that are hard to improve with the trend slowing down in earnings growth, such as steel, chemical, nonferrous metals and coal industries, it is very difficult to recover to the previous P / E ratio and market rate. However, some markets are in the doldrums, and the plates and stocks that are wrongly killed will have opportunities.

Market pricing

Compared with the previous rounds of A shares, a new feature is that the breakup of this round is accompanied by the gradual emergence of breakage.

As of November 28th, 13 of the 170 new shares listed this year were broken. Among them, the company has broken 6 companies, and A shares have broken 7 companies.

After entering the second half of 2019, the ecology of new shares has changed, and breaking cases frequently appear. By the end of November 28th, the biggest breakage was Baofeng energy (600989.SH), the latest closing price of 9.4 yuan, shrank by 18.30% compared with the first price, and over 10% of the breaking rate also includes Yuan Li technology, Weier pharmaceutical, Rong Bai technology, long day new material and JP.

Recently, Chongqing agricultural trading bank and Zhejiang Commercial Bank's IPO broke down one after another. After the tenth trading days of Chongqing agricultural trading company broke out, Zhejiang Merchants Bank hit a 0.688% success rate and broke the market on the first day of listing.

This also brings pressure to the subsequent postal savings bank issuing. On the evening of November 28th, the purchase of new stocks issued by the postal savings bank was released. After the callback mechanism was launched, the final success rate of the online issue of postal savings bank was 1.25914868%, the highest record since the implementation of the credit purchase system in 2016.

It is worth mentioning that in order to stabilize the stock price, the postal savings bank introduced the "green shoe" mechanism in this issue. That is to say, if the stock price is lower than the issue price after the 30 day's stabilization period, the underwriter will buy the stock from the market and stabilize the two market price.

The issuer and co principal underwriter, based on the purchase of the issue, negotiated the green shoe mechanism and allotment 775 million 800 thousand shares to online investors, accounting for 15% of the initial issue shares.

It is understood that this is the first single issue of A shares in the past ten years, and the fourth issue of the "green shoe" mechanism issued by IPO in history.

"I think this is a good thing and a return of market attributes. After the marketization of IPO pricing, breaking new shares is a normal phenomenon. There are breakage in mature markets. The proportion of breaking new shares in Hongkong is generally higher than 15%, and the share breaking rate in the US is also around 20%. Dong Dengxin, director of the financial and Securities Research Institute of Wuhan University of Science and Technology, believes that this indicates that the pricing of new shares under the registration system is going towards marketization.

Yang Delong believes that the simultaneous emergence of breaking and breaking shows that the market is relatively sluggish, and investors' investment sentiment is relatively poor. However, the emergence of breakage is also related to the change of IPO mechanism, such as the issuance of enquiries of the science and technology board, the relatively high issuance price, and the possibility of breakage after the listing.

"Recently, the stock market earnings of several banks issued by the main board are more than 10 times, less than 23 times, which is equivalent to the IPO price earnings ratio ceiling, which does not play a role, and is also a kind of market-oriented pricing. Recent breakage is the result of market inquiry, which indicates that the pricing of new shares is becoming market-oriented. Hongkong and Europe will also break. The disillusionment of the myth of new shares will also fight against new enthusiasm, so that some of the funds will not stay too much in the new market. Yang Delong said.