Inadequate Supply Of Cotton At The Stage Of Supply Is Not Improving.

Last week (November 25-29), clothing exports in the 1-10 months fell 4.9%, the domestic retail sales growth dropped 5.6%, and the online retail growth rate dropped by 15.4%. The impact of trade war on cotton consumption has already appeared. Because of the low order and large inventory, the stable price of cotton yarn went to stock, the price of substitute polyester and viscose was relatively stable, and the proportion of cotton used in cotton mill decreased. The acquisition of seed cotton is coming to an end, and prices are stable and sales are slow. CNCottonB index of 13064 yuan / ton, weekly rise of 58 yuan / ton, compared with Zheng cotton futures CF2001 contract, spot premium 304 yuan / ton, week expansion of 33 yuan / ton.

Futures. Consumption is sluggish, and stage oversupply. Zheng cotton rebounded to the 20 day moving average. Last month's contract CF 2001 closed at 12760 yuan / ton on Friday, and rose 25 yuan per ton. In January, there was a decrease in the delivery opportunities, and funds continued to withdraw. Some positions shifted to the warehouse in May, and trading and positions were reduced. The main contract CF2005 closed at 13245 yuan / ton on Friday, and 10 yuan / ton per week, while Zhou Zhenfu only 235 yuan / ton, and the turnover was reduced. As a whole, the fluctuation of zhengmian disk is decreasing, and there is a lack of trend market. Registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, the total amount reached 17219, an increase of 2393, 5889 forecasts, 428 more than last week, registered warehouses are still in the territory, 5889 forecast Xinjiang library has 4876, accounting for 83%. It is difficult to spot sales, and the profit margin of some resource warehouse receipts is better than spot goods, which is the main reason for enterprises to actively register warehouse receipts. The collection and storage is about to be implemented, which can reduce the effective supply stage by stages, have the bottom effect, stabilize market confidence, adjust the space to a limited extent, the trade war is not over yet, consumption is still decreasing, and the uplink lacks momentum.

Us disk: The trade war negotiations are uncertain, and the disk continues to consolidate and wait. The main contract closed at 65.42 cents / pound last Friday, rising 57 points on Friday. The Sino US negotiations remain the most influential factor in the US market and continue to follow the progress of trade negotiations.

On the spot. The purchase and storage is about to start, the Sino US negotiations are still uncertain, the consumption of the latter is not improving, the order of the cotton mill is insufficient, the inventory is still high, and cotton procurement is prudent. Most of them are at low price, a small amount of rigid replenishment, and cotton maintains relatively low inventory. The main body of spot trading in cotton mill is still concentrated in the 18 years' resources of the inland Treasury. The resources in the territory are mainly sold to traders or wait-and-see ready to participate in the round sale, or spot sales enthusiasm is not high, and the direct purchase of cotton mill is less. The price quoted in the territory is 13200-13500 yuan / ton, which is close to the 18 years' resources of the inland bank, plus the freight rate is higher than the mainland price. In the mainland, there is a coexistence of Treasury fixed prices and spot price resources, and sales are up and down with futures. The mainland's 3128 hand picked Xinjiang cotton price is 13300-13600 yuan / ton, and the machine adopts Xinyuan cotton 13300-13600 yuan / ton. Customs clearance India cotton 12900-13500 yuan / ton, Australia cotton 15500-16000 yuan / ton, Brazil cotton 13300-14000 yuan / ton, West Africa cotton 12500-13500 yuan / ton.

Acquisition of new cotton. The harvest of new cotton has basically come to an end. Over 95% of the sale rate is near the end, processing nearly 70%. A small purchase price is relatively stable, and spot sales progress is slower. The pre purchase price is low, and the sales profit is better than that of last year. The futures premium has been maintained for a long time, and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts is high.

Operation suggestion 。 The purchase and storage will start soon, and consumption will not increase. Under the circumstances of smooth negotiation between China and the United States, the disk will remain in a range of shocks. We will continue to pay attention to the progress of Sino US negotiations and the increase in orders consumption.