The End Of Crude Oil "Five Even Yang" PTA Immediately Fell.

In December 10, 2018, ethylene glycol futures were officially listed on the Dalian Mercantile Exchange.

After a year's development, ethylene glycol futures have become a new important concern for textile workers. In recent years, under the "PTA" futures performance of "big brother", the "new army" ethylene glycol futures have earned everyone's attention with good performance.

The price of oil did not rise until we discovered who was swimming naked.

Recently, OPEC and non OPEC major oil producing countries Russia reached a new production reduction agreement, agreed to start from January next year, an additional 500 thousand barrels per day, by the good news, the international crude oil to achieve "five consecutive ups", a Zhou Guoji oil price rose to 7.3%.

Driven by the international oil price, various links in the polyester industry chain, including PTA, ethylene glycol, PX and other products, have risen to varying degrees.

Among them, the increase of PX and ethylene glycol was even larger, which rose by 15 US dollars / ton and 58 yuan / ton respectively. PTA rose slightly, and the spot price of finished products increased by 20 yuan / ton.

On Monday, the international oil price rally stopped. In December 9th, the US crude oil fell 0.30%. Brent crude fell 0.22%.

In terms of PTA, On the afternoon of December 10th, PTA futures suddenly started diving. As of 15 o'clock on December 10th, PTA futures main contract closed 2005 points 4850 points, 58 points lower than the previous trading day, or 1.18%, ending the previous "three Lian Yang" market.

Glycol side It is quite different from PTA futures. In December 9th, ethylene glycol rose sharply by 2.7%. As at 15 o'clock in December 10th, the 2001 contract of ethylene glycol futures closed at 4849 points, up 78 points from the previous trading day, or 1.63%.

When the international oil price is rising, the whole polyester industry chain is going up. When the oil price begins to callback, we find out who is in the "naked swimming". In the final analysis, it is still the fundamental reason, and the biggest influence is the stock.

PTA inventory, Because last year the third quarter of PTA surged, overturned and overdrawn, and this year because of the poor performance of the terminal textile industry, we can clearly feel that since last September, PTA has been in a state of exhausted inventory. Although in October this year, the PTA plant chose to increase the overhaul and slightly consumed some inventory, but this is still a temporary solution to the problem. At present, the PTA social inventory still exceeds 1 million 200 thousand tons.

Ethylene glycol inventory In comparison with PTA, the port inventory of ethylene glycol is declining, and is now below 500 thousand tons, the lowest level in the year. Recently, due to the poor port weather, Ningbo, Zhangjiagang and other East China main ports have been closed, and ethylene glycol has been postponed.

The gap in inventory has caused the recent two level differentiation of ethylene glycol and PTA, but in the long run, these two products are "difficult brothers", and the prospects are not optimistic.

The new equipment is queuing up, and the market prospect is not optimistic.

PTA device aspects In November, the commissioning of the new Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant was a heavy blow to the originally weak PTA market. Before the end of December, the commissioning plan of Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 500 thousand tons PTA plant and Zhongtai chemical 1 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant may make the recent PTA that is difficult to pick up a bit worse.

Glycol installations Because of the poor performance of ethylene glycol in the first half of this year, the new production capacity that was originally planned to put into operation has been postponed. Until now, only a 100 thousand ton / year synthetic gas MEG plant in Xinjiang has been discharged and run steadily. But this situation will change in the future.

Recently, the commissioning test of Inner Mongolia Rongxin 400 thousand ton / year ethylene glycol plant was successfully planned in the near future. In the middle of December, the ethylene glycol unit of Hengli Petrochemical Company 900 thousand tons is also ready for trial run. Once these new installations are formally launched, it will cause certain impact on the glycol market.

Poor terminal demand, polyester repair efforts intensified

This year, the textile market is not good, the weaving enterprises have too high inventory of grey cloth and huge financial pressure, so they can not afford too much money to prepare raw materials. In addition, at the beginning of this year, because of the high inventory of polyester factories, the price of polyester decreased, and the weaving enterprises suffered great losses. Under the influence of these two factors, many weaving enterprises have doubts about hoarding raw materials and stockpiling raw materials at the end of this year.

At present, the stock of polyester factories exceeds 20 days, higher than that of the same period last year.

Under the pressure of high inventory, the polyester plant's overhauling efforts this year may be far ahead of the previous years. We can see some clues from the recently announced maintenance plan.

PTA and ethylene glycol are raw materials for producing polyester, and the high inventory of polyester and the decline of production capacity will also suppress the two products in the demand level.

afterword

When the crude oil ended "five plus Yang", PTA immediately began to go down. "Ethylene glycol" continued to rise under the impetus of low inventory. But in the long run, the prospect of PTA and ethylene glycol will not be very optimistic in the future.