Sino US Negotiation Deadline Is Approaching ICE Cotton Trend Is At A Loss

According to Bloomberg news, Larry Kudelo, the White House economic adviser, said that at present, China and the United States have been negotiating almost the most detailed issues about China's purchase of US agricultural products all day long, and the two sides are working hard to agree on the number of purchases.

Kudelo said that the two sides are now discussing the most detailed issues, which must be ruled, discussed, analyzed and evaluated, and then submitted to President Trump, who will take a closer look. Although the two sides are close to reaching a broad trade agreement and have made progress, they haven't made any suggestions in writing. Senior officials have no plans to meet face to face at present.

8 weeks ago, Trump announced that China and the United States had reached a new agreement, but it might take three to five weeks to complete it. According to the theory at that time, China agreed to purchase US $40 to US $5 billion per year of US agricultural products. Trump believes that this figure is very large, so American farmers should invest more in equipment and land.

Trump threatened to impose full tariffs on China's imports if no agreement was reached in the middle of the month. Kudelo said that the agreement is still possible, and there is no deadline at this point, but at the same time, December 15th is a very important date, because if the agreement is incomplete, the United States will impose additional tariffs.

Last week, the US stock market suffered twists and turns in the Sino US trade negotiations. In recent days, the two sides of the US and China said they might be closer to signing the first stage than before, but Trump said he did not mind trading again after the 2020 election, which made the market somewhat disappointed. At present, China has begun to exclude the import duties of pork and soybeans in the United States, which may indicate that China and the US are approaching a broader trade agreement.

ICE is at a loss what to do about the signing of the US cotton store.

In recent days, ICE cotton futures have been widely oscillating, but the main contract has not yet exceeded 64-67 cents per pound. The biggest impact on the operation of the two sides is the progress of Sino US trade negotiations, rather than the basic demand for cotton supply and demand, China's purchasing and storage policy, or 2019/20 cotton production and sales progress.

An international cotton trader said that sellers and buyers are now confused and unable to see clearly, so they are more cautious and careful. On the one hand, Sino US trade negotiations are confusing, good news and bad news are overwhelming, and cotton companies and investment institutions are unable to identify the reliability of information. If the US side postponed or abolished tariffs on imports of US $156 billion from China in December 15th, it showed that the signing of the first stage trade agreement between China and the United States was only "bad at the door". The rebound rate of ICE is expected to accelerate. Otherwise, ICE will break the box, and the main force may break 62 cents / pound, 60 cents / pound. On the other hand, all parties are waiting for the USDA global production and marketing forecast report (November), and it is not urgent to operate before the news and data are uncertain. Some agencies have decided that the December report will again cut down 2019/20 cotton production and global cotton production, which is much more profitable than ICE futures.

From the survey, whether the international cotton business or the domestic cotton trade enterprise 2019/20 year, the US cotton sale mainly takes the "shipping date", concentrates in 1/2/3 month, the 11/12 month sailing period is very few. At present, the US new cotton which has arrived in Hong Kong and into the bonded warehouse is almost zero; the domestic cotton textile enterprise is more cautious about the 2019/20 annual cotton inquiry and the lower price list, and some buyers are far away from the US 11/12 on the shipping date of the 11/12 month. The negotiations are likely to be dragged to January 2020, whether the market can reach a consensus before the end of the year (the Ministry of Commerce has not mentioned cotton exclusion), and the two is from the quotation point of view, before February, the "EMOT/MOT" and "ME" strength of the shipping season were relatively low (26-28GPT), and the consistency was not high; three, there were still a certain amount of 2018/19 and 2017/18 in the main port of China before February (concentrated in the hands of several large cotton enterprises), compared with that in the month of 12/1, the quality and spinnability of American cotton were not at a disadvantage; at present, some traders provided 12/1/2/3 cotton shipping resources in addition to the 2019/20 annual cotton market, and four, the widening of the RMB exchange rate volatility and the difficult direction. First, Sino US trade.