Upstream Two Big Raw Materials "You Rise Or Fall", Downstream Polyester Filament Should "Follow Whom?"

In recent trading days, glycol has been described as "energetic and fashionable."

Futures market, in December 9th, ethylene glycol futures contract rose substantially by 2.7%; in December 10th, the main contract rose sharply again 1.63%; in December 11th, the main contract closed at 4848 yuan / ton, or 0.5%.

The spot price of glycol and ethylene glycol is also rising steadily. At present, the price of its internal market has risen to the top of the 5000 yuan / tonne pass, and it has surpassed the PTA in the early stage.

With the raw material of polyester, the PTA market in the near term is in a state of collapse. It is completely missing the early arrogant state of "standing in a crowd", and the decline is spreading further.

As the upstream raw material of polyester market, why is PTA running against ethylene glycol in recent days?

The fundamental reason is that inventory is in stock.

In recent days, the spot market of ethylene glycol has been rising strongly, mainly due to its low inventory status. It is reported that due to the recent port weather is not good, Ningbo, Zhangjiagang and other East China main ports closed, ethylene glycol arrival delay, port inventory decline, spot supply has become increasingly tense, is now less than 500 thousand tons, refresh the lowest level in the year.

In contrast to the PTA market, the stock market of PTA is still being squeezed due to the increase of the load of its own devices and the supply and overdraft in the early stage. It is understood that the PTA social stock exceeds 1 million 200 thousand tons at present.

The upstream two big raw materials "you rise or fall", for downstream "main force" polyester filament, in fact, has brought a boost power? Or did it create repression?

In fact, since the recent stage, the market of polyester filament is mostly stalemate, and there is neither a big pull up nor a big reduction. It is understood that the mainstream manufacturers mainly focus on stability, and of course, different manufacturers still have different degrees of negotiation concessions when they actually deal.

However, although the price of polyester filament market is relatively stable, however, whether it is production, inventory or profit, for polyester manufacturers, it is a "bitter tears".

One

Only 7% of the weaving factories have the intention of stocking stocks, and polyester production and marketing are hard to say.

For this year's downstream weaving factories, the market is weak and the inventory of grey cloth is high, which has led to increased pressure on most manufacturers' funds. Therefore, weaving manufacturers seem to be more cautious about storing materials before years. According to the survey conducted by China silk net for the raw materials at the end of the weaving factory, nearly half of the textile people choose to store less raw materials. 15% of the textile people choose not to store their raw materials. 30% of the textile people choose to wait and see, while only 7% of the textile people choose the same raw materials as they used to.

It is not difficult to find that the willingness of the downstream weaving factories to store raw materials is generally not strong. On the one hand, they are worried about the price of raw materials, and on the other hand, they are also reducing their own financial pressure. In the near term, the downstream market is mostly on demand, so the mainstream production and marketing of the polyester market is hard to say, but most of them are maintained at around 5-8.

Two

Although the pressure on polyester stocks has eased, it is still on the high side.

Although, since December, some parts of the polyester plant have gradually entered the maintenance phase. Late December, from late January to January, the polyester plant has a larger maintenance plan to alleviate the stock pressure to a certain extent. However, due to the low enthusiasm for storing goods in the downstream market years ago, the main production and marketing difficulties of polyester market have been greatly improved. Therefore, the inventory decline of polyester factories has been alleviated, and the gap between them is even more obvious. According to the statistics of China's silk net, the overall stock market of polyester market is concentrated in 12-21 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are stored for 5-10 days, FDY stocks are close to 10-15 days, while DTY stocks are about 18-23 days.

Three

Polyester manufacturers expanded their losses, and FDY took the lead.

Before the end of the year, the profit status of polyester filament products is affecting the polyester manufacturers' ups and downs. In recent months, the profit margins of polyester manufacturers have been further squeezed, shrinking seriously and increasing losses. FDY is the first to bear the brunt. It has been in a deficit situation for more than two months. At present, its 150D deficit has increased to 163 yuan / ton. And in recent trading days, POY and DTY products also follow FDY's pace and fall into losses. According to the data, POY 150D lost nearly 110 yuan / ton, while DTY 150D lost nearly 63 yuan / ton.

It is reported that on the 11 day, the trading atmosphere of polyester filament Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has been improved, and some manufacturers have concentrated on volume. According to statistics, production and sales of polyester mainstream plants have risen sharply near 160%-180%, and individual higher production and marketing has reached 360% and 400%.

Under this stimulation, can the polyester filament Market follow the pace of ethylene glycol and pull up a wave of rising prices?