Macro News Driven Polyester Filament Price Trend To Increase Or Not?

In the near future, the raw materials of polyester filament market are released by international trade frictions, the new investment delays of PTA's new devices and the tight spot of glycol are all present. The overall trend of the upward trend of the shock is to increase the cost of polyester. At present, the news continues to drive the delivery of polyester. However, even if the polyester factories reduce production and protect prices, it will be difficult to follow the pace of the downriver weaving factory's concentration of the Spring Festival, and the market will remain pessimistic. The market will remain cool before the Spring Festival.

News 1: in December 13, 2019, both sides claimed that they had reached agreement on the first stage economic and trade agreement, and that they should complete the following steps: legal review, translation proofreading and formal signing. The agreement covers seven aspects: intellectual property rights, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, currency, expanding trade and dispute settlement.

Message two: in December 12th, the United States Trade Representative Office (USTR) announced the product exclusion notice for the Sixth Batch of 200 billion dollars plus tariff products list. This exclude a total of 44 products, including 3 tax numbers for textile and garment products. Up to now, the United States has issued 6 batches of 200 billion product exclusion lists, of which first batches involve 2 textile and garment products tax numbers, second batches involving 3 textile and garment products tax labels, third batches of 7 textile and garment products tax labels, fourth batches of 3 textile and garment products tax numbers, and fifth products excluding textile and clothing products, and a total of 7 textile and clothing products tax numbers. The excluded products will no longer be subject to a 301 tariff when they export to the United States.

Message three: the United States coordinates products under tariff rates No. 5402.33.3000 and 5402.33.6000. On the 12 day, the United States International Trade Commission (USA) made an affirmative final decision on anti-dumping and countervailing damage to imported stretch textured yarns imported from China and India.

Feed back to the polyester industry, news one or two is the main macro factor supporting the recent polyester market. Taking into account the proportion of China's exports of textiles and garments to the United States in 2018 accounted for 16.6% of China's textile and clothing exports, the market is expected to ease international trade frictions, which will promote the increase in export orders for new year's day. Xiaobian thinks that Christmas is coming soon, and orders have been basically completed during Christmas. Even if the export volume is increasing, it will be more new in 2020. In addition, PTA has a large number of production expectations in the year. Even if the polyester factories cut production prices and protect prices, it is difficult to follow the pace of the downfall of the Spring Festival factories in the downstream factories, and throw away the uncertain factors such as the tight supply of ethylene glycol in recent years, and the market price is bound to fall. Export orders will also consider moderate replenishment rather than concentrated bulk purchases. News three, it is undoubtedly the export of the tariff code to the United States for 18 years. The total volume of exports to the United States accounts for 11.56% of the total export volume of polyester filament. In accordance with the anti-dumping duty period of no more than five years, in recent years, this part of polyester filament has been expected to improve.

Looking at the whole market situation, except for the start of polyester factories and downstream looms, the fluctuation of raw materials will be a major factor affecting the recent market.