The End Of The Year Is Coming. Housing Prices Differentiation Trend Is Obvious

In December 19th, 10 land sold in Nanjing, including 9 plots in the city, Jiangning, Heng Chi and Lu Kou, were sold at the base price. The Qinhuai G94 plot in Jiangning, after 23 rounds of auction, was taken by 19018 yuan / square meter of the floor price of the letter, compared with the previous peak period, the land price was slightly reduced by 973 yuan / square meter.

Insiders interpret that the window appears. The recent sale of base price has been staged in many cities. Housing companies are making use of this window to readjust the track, and the new round of shuffling is becoming clearer. Combing some housing enterprises financial indicators, it is easy to find that the financing of Housing enterprises at the end of the year has increased significantly, mostly for land acquisition and acquisition.

Central Plains real estate research center data show that as of December 18th, housing enterprises overseas financing of more than 70 billion U.S. dollars. In December, in November, on a monthly basis of over 5 billion US dollars, more than 10 housing companies issued more than 2 billion US dollars financing plan.

"At the end of the year there was a low point, but in the medium and long term, we should observe that the central control policy has not yet loosened. "A hundred million scale listed housing companies executives believe that whether there will be a certain degree of relaxation in the future depends on whether the implementation of the strategy is really implemented. But the market is not going to go up and down like it used to be, and the central attitude is clear.

Extension financing channels

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, thinks that the US dollar debt of Housing enterprises has been refreshed in 2019. This is due to the shortage of funds in the real estate industry and the massive issuance of US dollar debt by housing companies.

The financing difficulty of some housing enterprises increased, but the financing cost of most enterprises remained stable. For a sound business, the financing cost reduction is still a trend. But for companies with higher leverage, the pressure on financing has increased recently.

Housing enterprises financing costs differentiation, interest rates between 6%-15%. Such as China Shipping issued 1 10 year 450 million dollar debt, the annual interest rate is only 3.45%, is the lowest interest rate bond issuance of Chinese funded Housing enterprises. The interest rates of big housing enterprises such as financial innovation and Biguiyuan are also low.

A financial institution analysts believe that Hongyang efforts to broaden the financing channels, quite a large scale of meaning, although the sales scale has entered the top 60 industries, but the top 100 housing companies have to do a large scale in order to not fall behind, in order to continue to borrow money. "This is interlocking." This person pointed out that housing enterprises in this round of track transformation efforts to do the scale of Housing enterprises, is bound to sacrifice some profits. For institutional financing, transactions with housing companies are usually based on equity, so for expanding housing prices, they are still regarded as difficult trading partners. In other words, the top 30 of the housing sector in the industry is more popular with institutions. The top ten companies in China are the most popular partners in Guangdong and Guangxi, and two other companies are listed on the list of high-risk companies because of their high liabilities and their involvement with the founders.

Small and medium-sized Housing enterprises financing interest rate is high, financing innovation constantly. If Hong Yang recently issued 2 billion ABS, from the issuer Hongyang commercial factoring (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen Qianhai Lanhai commercial factoring Co., Ltd., Hongyang made use of its commercial rental income as the underlying assets to make an account receivable financing and broaden the financing channels. According to the scale of financing, Hongyang's annual rental income is about 1 billion yuan. Institutional analysis shows that this kind of financing interest rate is 8%-12%, which is cheaper than development loan but less than private placement. It is revealed that this is also the first new asset securitization project approved after the "723" ABS new deal.

Zhang Dawei and other industry insiders believe that the recent housing prices are obviously concerned about the safety of the capital chain, the real estate market must be stable, and the most important thing to stabilize the real estate is to prevent financial risks. So in recent months, the policy of real estate financing is being regulated and tightened. Trust and overseas financing are standardized rather than a comprehensive suspension. For small and Medium Housing enterprises, especially high debt rate housing companies, financing in the future is more difficult, but the impact on large enterprises is relatively limited.

The bottom line of housing financing is partly from sales. Central Plains real estate research center data show that as of recently, 32 benchmark Housing enterprises announced the 2019 sales in November, totaling 56027 billion, up 18.6% over the same period last year. Part of the housing business outbreaks, such as Hengda sales in a single month to refresh the historical record. 32 Housing enterprises in 2018 total sales of 52538 billion, that is, in the first 11 months, most of the mainstream housing prices have exceeded the sales of the past year.

Land market differentiation

Corresponding to the above financing situation, as of December 17th, the total sales of 50 cities in 2019 totaled 3 trillion and 970 billion, up 16.3% over the same period last year, and 30 cities in the country sold more than 50 billion, refreshing the historical record.

Housing enterprises also have regional differentiation. Among them, there are 14 hundred billion land sales cities. The top three are Hangzhou 270 billion 900 million, Shanghai 182 billion 200 million and Suzhou 168 billion 300 million. In addition, Kunming, Wenzhou and other 16 cities sell more than 50 billion. In 68% cities in 50 cities, land sales increased in 2019.

Combined with the data from the third party organizations, market differentiation is also reflected in the land market. Some of the first tier hot cities begin to sell some land which is obviously different from before. The supply of land listing has increased. From the enthusiasm of land selling cities, most cities are still increasing land sales. Overall, the market regulation policy has also undergone subtle changes. In view of the obvious rise in housing prices, the regulation and regulation continued. The most typical Suzhou has seen many intensive fine-tuning.

Local housing companies are relatively concentrated in non private enterprises.

There are also obvious divisions among different cities. The local government has adjusted part of the land policy. In recent months, the land market constraints have been reduced, including land price fixing, land margin and land supporting housing in some cities.

Zhang Dawei believes that changes in financing and land market reflect Housing enterprises need to replenish land reserves, including the increase of strategic layout of some enterprises. Recently, there are new listing of Housing enterprises to increase land reserves. From the market changes, the second tier housing companies rush to firmly.

The emergence of the window period is also the result of the differentiation of housing prices to the future real estate market trend, and the reduction of the price of non premium land by housing enterprises. But the competition for high-quality cities and high quality land is still fierce. Although the regulation policy of a second tier city is strict, for housing prices, in order to increase sales, it will still be concentrated.

From the overall land market, the turnover of three line cities has been reduced, and the turnover of the three or four tier cities is still in the doldrums. Real estate enterprises have put more capital into the second tier cities, and this is also the main reason for the rise of the second tier land market. Zhang Dawei believes that next year does not rule out further fine-tuning of the property market policy.

Merger and acquisition boom

It is noteworthy that the flow rate of most housing enterprises is rising faster than equity, with more and more cooperative projects, and some enterprises have obvious price adjustment promotions, such as some centralized supply areas of the surrounding cities of the Pearl River Delta cities. Housing enterprises to scale, the last 1 months still strive to "rush".

Before 2019, the sale of Housing enterprises in November also differentiated. Compared with the same period in 2018, it rose by more than 50% over the same period. In 2019, most enterprises were mainly stationary, and some enterprises rose significantly. Most business performance increased by 18.6% on average. Layout of the three or four tier cities, housing sales fell significantly.

In this wave of mergers and acquisitions, the protagonists have distinct characteristics. Shimao, Hongyang and other promotion goals obvious housing prices recently active in the M & a market. The other side of the M & A, the endangered housing company, is willing to sell the project to survive.

Shimao has experienced 2015-2017 years of low sales, ranking 176 billion 120 million in 2018 in terms of 176 billion 120 million yuan. In 2019, Shimao launched a large scale merger and acquisition, according to its acquisition of Taihe Group, Ming FA group, Guangdong Thai shares, Wan Tong real estate and other projects statistics, the amount has reached 20 billion yuan, there are many undisclosed stage of the transaction is in progress. Recently, Shimao has made full use of its mobile phone structure to acquire relevant assets of Fusheng group.

Hongyang is expanding its financing channels in the near future. According to the company, housing enterprises financing is to seize the opportunity of the end of the year.

The latest cooperation between Greentown and new lake is just a reflection of the mentality of both sides. In the second half of the year, the sale of new treasure in the new lake is frequent. Due to the increase in interest bearing debts in 2019, the pressure of debt expired in a year, the new lake has to sell plots to ease cash flow and adjust its financial structure.

In the middle of the year, the 20 lakes in the Yangtze River Delta were transferred to 6 billion 700 million yuan in the middle of the new year. After that, they sold 3 billion 600 million of the 35% stake in Shanghai Pearl City project to Greentown.

It is worth noting that as of December 11th, 56 cities in the green city have acquired land, and the land investment amount is about 73 billion 900 million yuan, with an additional value of over 170 billion yuan, with an additional sale area of nearly 7 million yuan. Green city actively fill up the warehouse to optimize the pace of supply, and in the case of the increasingly scarce land resources in the first tier cities, the green city once again entered the inner ring region of Shanghai and obtained a pure residential land. Not only can it bring more than 10 billion of the value to the green City, but also increase the land reserve in the Shanghai area, and help further enhance the brand influence of the green city in the Shanghai market.