Shenzhen Property Market AB Face: Double Cover Four Years Doubled, Some People Ran Inflation

"Price rises" and "monthly rise of millions" make Shenzhen owners' image unbearable, but this is far from their whole.

Half is seawater and half is fire. Only in this way can we describe the real situation of Shenzhen owners.

Benefit from a series of planning positive, coupled with the new supply too little, the Shenzhen property market has been heating up since the second half of this year. The owners of many districts give their houses a cheer and blow up, hoping to sell a high price.

It reflects the general anxiety that people are lifting or depreciating their assets at this stage.

But not everyone's property is on the rise. On the other hand, Hengyu Bincheng is sitting on the high quality resources of the Shenzhen Bay, doubling in four years, and wants to thrive. On the other hand, phoenix garden is located in an awkward position, with a slight increase in four years, and even a turning point.

These two projects, which were officially criticized for "driving up housing prices", reflect two sides of the Shenzhen property market.

Benefit from a series of planning positive, coupled with the new supply too little, the Shenzhen property market has been heating up since the second half of this year. - Gan Jun photo

Anxious owners

The owners of Fenghuang district do not expect themselves to be the first to be criticized.

In December 17th, Shenzhen Baoan District Housing Construction Bureau talked about individuals who "hyped up housing prices" and suspended the phoenix net sign.

COFCO Phoenix Lane Garden District, located in Fuyong street, Baoan District, Shenzhen, when it was launched in December 2015, the average price was about 35 thousand / flat. The highest record price was 39500 yuan / Ping, which was not particularly cheap four years ago. At that time, Longhua, Xili and so on were almost the same price, or even lower.

At that time, the subway line 11, as a selling point, was opened in June 28, 2016, reaching Baoan airport and Nanshan Futian. Many owners also had the expectation of "future international convention and Exhibition Center" and "big airport new town".

There are many marketing gimmicks, but there are also "bad injuries". More than familiar with the Phoenix intermediary said that the problem is that the surrounding factories, and many have not been demolished.

Reporters found that there are also different types of factories and industrial zones around the area, such as Dayang industrial area, khei Sha well factory, hardware factory and so on.

According to the housing world data, the price trend of COFCO Phoenix has fluctuated slightly this year, but it is almost horizontal. The average price of the 1-11 month transaction is about 47 thousand yuan / square meter. In the same period, the price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen has risen from about 55000 yuan to nearly 65000 yuan / square.

Li Yujia, chief research fellow of Guangdong provincial housing policy research center, believes that the housing prices in Fenghuang district have not risen significantly for many years because the district has "bruising".

The other side of the Shenzhen property market is a red net with a monthly increase of four million. For example, Hengyu Bincheng of Shenzhen Bay, 4 years ago, the opening price was about 100 thousand / flat, and now hung 200 thousand +; and the Huarun city of Nanshan, the lowest opening price in 2015, now the average price is more than 100 thousand.

In November, the volume and price of Shenzhen property market rose, but it disguised the fact that regional differentiation was serious. Even if the policy was good, the market was not going up unilaterally.

In the Gulf of Shenzhen, new developments in the real estate market are very promising. Basically, only Yuefu, Hengyu city and Shekou peninsula city states have many advantages such as front-line seascape and so on. On the other hand, there are still a lot of projects in Baoan, Longgang, Luohu and other urban areas.

According to Anju data, in November, the average price of Nanshan second-hand housing was 80646 yuan / Ping, up 9.07% over the same period last year, the average price of Baoan was 49054 yuan / Ping, up 7.21% from the same period last year, while the average price of second-hand housing in Longgang in November was 37626 yuan / Ping, down 0.22% from last year, and the average price of Yantian was 46530 yuan / Ping, down 4.58% from last year.

There are also divisions within the urban area. For example, it is also Baoan District, Baoan airport, Sha well, Taoyuan, Xixiang, Xin'an, the average price of second-hand housing has been rising steadily, but the average price of second-hand housing in Fuyong has dropped to about 27000 yuan / Ping from the beginning of this year, about 35000 yuan / Ping, and the average price in November dropped 13.78% compared with the same period last year.

According to Zhuge search statistics, this year, the 118 listed large volume of second-hand property in Shenzhen, there are 51 real estate prices, 66 areas, 11 area listing prices fell.

Take Longgang Road 1 as an example, the price has been lowered from 18% yuan in December 2018 to 47207 yuan / ping in November 2019 to 38553 yuan / Ping, and from half a year to 38008 yuan / 33936 to 10.71% yuan.

Zhuge search house researchers pointed out that in the first 5 areas of the 2019 decline, the former area accounted for 4 seats, such as Nan'ao, Kwai Chung, Shiyan, Yantian port and other outskirts. In the increase of TOP5, Nanshan and Futian each accounted for 2 seats, and Longhua accounted for 1 seats.

Investment risk

From 1998 to 2019, the real estate market in China was in increments, with annual turnover ranging from several billion to trillions to more than 10 trillion. In addition to the dramatic adjustment in 2008, the price of the mainstream cities has almost always been rising, and the continuous decline has not yet appeared.

This led to the view that housing prices are always rising in the market. In the first tier cities, especially in Beijing and Shenzhen, the myth of housing prices is deeply rooted. However, as early as two years ago, Yu Liang, chairman of Vanke's board of directors, clearly pointed out that the era of unilateral rise in Chinese real estate has ended.

His view is aimed at the national market, and by the end of 2019, some more obvious divisions have taken place.

Nationwide, there has been a great divergence between cities. Insiders pointed out that "this year's market is only two, Shenzhen, and cities outside Shenzhen", although this view is extreme, but it reflects the fact of differentiation.

In November of this year, the second-hand housing in Beijing lasted for more than two years. Housing prices in the East Fourth Ring Road and North Fourth Ring Road have fallen by about 15% compared with the peak period. The new housing market, due to the fierce competition in the supply of restricted housing, has been reported by many developers in Beijing.

At the same time, because of the big bay area strategy and the mansion tax standard relaxation and other dividends, in the case of the national property market downturn, the Shenzhen property market is thriving and even ushered in the warm winter.

But the case of owners' "control of price increases" shows that even in Shenzhen, the era of full rise has passed away, and differentiation has also taken place.

Li Yujia said that when the house occupies more than 80% of the wealth of a family, many people want to achieve wealth appreciation and cash realization through this way, but not any house will rise in price. The price of the district fully reflects the value of many factors such as location, property and degree. Owners' control will not lead to a sharp rise in prices.

The end of the dream of getting rich by means of a house is over. Three years ago, people who bought Beijing houses at a high level were losing money at present. In Shenzhen, a year ago, Longgang and Yantian projects not only failed to rise in price, but lost money. Even four years ago, the owners of Fenghuang district were counting on inflation and other factors.

In 2019, the economic work conference continued to focus on real estate. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, thinks that the housing policy will still play a role in the future market policy, and the future two-way regulation will be a means.

Whether it is a "hard" project like Phoenix Phoenix Garden or a "superiority" project like Hengyu Bincheng, now and in the future, people who want to attach the investment attribute to the second-hand housing in Shenzhen should ponder over and over again.