China'S Acrylonitrile Exports Increased Significantly In 2019

Recently, China Customs announced the import and export data for November. The first time the volume of acrylonitrile export exceeded 10 thousand tons in the month, reaching 11 thousand and 900 tons, the highest level in history. In 2019 1-11, the export volume of acrylonitrile increased to 36 thousand tons, and the total export volume is expected to exceed 40 thousand tons.

Since 2016, the export volume of acrylonitrile in China has increased year by year, mainly based on the background that the domestic market is gradually changing from insufficient supply to oversupply. With the gradual release of new capacity, domestic acrylonitrile production growth is larger than demand growth. It is expected that by 2020, China's acrylonitrile market will be completely overloaded, so domestic suppliers will begin to export and explore the way to extend their sales channels to foreign markets.

Figure 12015-2019 changes in China's acrylonitrile export volume

Note: export volume is estimated in 2019.

Looking back on the data in the past five years, the export volume of acrylonitrile was less than 10000 tons per year from the first export in 2016, and in 2018, the supply volume was still in short supply before 2019. In 2019, with the successful commissioning of the two phase of the project, the supply of domestic products increased significantly, and the supply gap in some parts of the international market was stopped because of the discontinued production of some devices, thus giving domestic product export opportunities. In addition, the price of the external market is higher in the whole year of 2019, and it also gives good export arbitrage window.

Figure 22019 export volume of acrylonitrile in China in 1-11

In the first half of 2019, the export of acrylonitrile was relatively limited, only 2000 tons per month. The volume of exports in the second half of the year exceeded 5000 tons, and even exceeded 10 thousand tons in November. In the first half of the year, the supply of acrylonitrile in China was not abundant, and both inus and Shandong Hai Li were all subject to force majeure shutdown, causing domestic and foreign supply constraints. However, it can be seen that although the volume of exports in the first half of the year is not large, it has increased significantly over the past year, and the monthly export volume is more than 2000 tons since April. In the 9-10 month, with the two phase of production and the resumption of the marine power plant, the domestic market gradually showed an oversupply. The enterprises headed by the state led by the state led to the expansion of the export market and the export volume of acrylonitrile.

Figure 32019 China acrylonitrile export destination

In the 2015-2019 year, China's acrylonitrile export destination countries are mainly concentrated in Asia and the Middle East. The specific countries are South Korea, India, the United Arab Emirates and Iran. In 2019, exports were mainly concentrated in three countries, namely Korea, India and the United Arab Emirates. Among them, South Korea is the largest export country of acrylonitrile, accounting for more than 60%, followed by India, accounting for about 25%. The supply gap of acrylonitrile in South Korea and India in 2019 was mainly due to the parking of the force of force, with the US parking time of up to seven months. At the same time, the 280 thousand tonnes of British equipment in Britain announced that it would suspend production in 2020, and that the future international supply of goods will change. China's influence in the export market will also gradually expand.