In December 2019, The PMI Of China'S Manufacturing Industry Was 50.2%.

1. Operation of purchasing managers index of China's manufacturing industry

In December 2019, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.2%, unchanged from last month.

From the scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises is 50.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, PMI of medium-sized enterprises is 51.4%, up 1.9 percentage points from last month, PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises are located above the critical point, small enterprises PMI is 47.2%, down 2.2 percentage points from last month, and is located at the critical point.

According to the classification index, the production index, the new order index and the supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point in the 5 classification indices of manufacturing PMI, and the raw material inventory index and the employment index are below the critical point.

The production index is 53.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, and continues to be above the critical point, indicating that manufacturing enterprises continue to accelerate their production expansion.

The new order index was 51.2%, a slight drop of 0.1 percentage points from last month, and two consecutive months above the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continued to grow.

Raw material inventory index was 47.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, below the critical point, indicating that the main raw material inventory of the manufacturing industry was reduced.

The employment index was 47.3%, unchanged from last month, indicating that manufacturing enterprises are stable in employment.

The supplier delivery time index was 51.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from last month, which is above the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing material suppliers is accelerating.

Two. Operation of China's non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

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In December 2019, the index of non manufacturing business activity was 53.5%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating that the non manufacturing sector remained on the whole expanding and the growth rate slowed down.

According to the industry, the business activity index of the service sector was 53%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month. In terms of industry, the business activity index of railway transportation industry, accommodation industry, telecommunication broadcasting and television and satellite transmission service, Internet software information technology service, financial industry, leasing and business service industry is above 55%, business activities are more active, and the business activity index in wholesale and real estate industries is located in the contraction area. The construction business activity index was 56.7%, down 2.9 percentage points from last month, and maintained a high level of prosperity.

The new order index was 50.4%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month, above the critical point. According to the industry, the new order index of the service sector was 50%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the construction industry new orders index was 52.9%, down 3.1 percentage points from last month.

The price index of input products was 52.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, which is above the critical point, indicating that the overall level of input prices of non manufacturing enterprises for business activities has narrowed. According to the industry, the price index of the service industry input is 52.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry input price index is 53%, down 3.3 percentage points from last month.

The sales price index was 50.3%, although it fell 1 percentage points from last month, but it is still above the critical point, indicating that the overall sales price of non manufacturing industry rose slightly from last month. According to the industry, the sales price index of the service sector was 49.9%, down 1.2 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry sales price index was 52.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month.

The employment index was 48.3%, down 0.7 percentage points from last month, below the critical point. According to the industry, the index of service industry employees was 47.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry employment index was 50.7%, down 4.8 percentage points from last month.

The business activity expectation index is 59.1%, although it dropped 1.9 percentage points from last month, but it is still in the high economic zone, indicating that the non manufacturing enterprises are more optimistic about the future market development. According to the industry, the service sector business activity index is 59.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry activity activity index is 59.2%, down 3.9 percentage points from last month.

Three. Operation of China's comprehensive PMI output index

In December 2019, the composite PMI output index was 53.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, and continued to be above the critical point, indicating that China's enterprises' production and operation activities remained in general expansion.

Note appended

1. main indicators explanation

The purchasing managers index (PMI) is an index compiled by the monthly survey results of enterprise purchasing managers. It covers all aspects of enterprise procurement, production and circulation, including manufacturing and non manufacturing industries. It is one of the international leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends. It has strong prediction and early warning effect. The comprehensive PMI output index is a comprehensive index reflecting the output changes of the whole industry (manufacturing and non manufacturing industries) in the PMI index system. PMI usually takes 50% as the dividing point of economic strength. When PMI is above 50%, it reflects the overall economic expansion; below 50% reflects the overall economic contraction.

2. scope of investigation

It involves 31 industry categories, 3000 survey samples, 37 industry categories and 4000 survey samples in the manufacturing industry classification of the national economy (GB/T4754-2017).

3. survey methodology

Purchasing managers investigate the adoption of PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, with manufacturing or non manufacturing industries as the main category, and the sample size of the industry is allocated to the proportion of all manufacturing or non manufacturing added value according to their added value, and the probability of sampling is proportional to the proportion of the main business income in the sample.

The survey was carried out by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of statistics.

4. calculation method

(1) calculation method of classification index. The purchasing management survey index system of manufacturing industry includes production, new orders, new export orders, in hand orders, finished goods inventory, purchase quantity, import, main raw material purchase price, ex factory price, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, production and operation activity expectations 13 classification index. Non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers survey index system includes business activity, new orders, new export orders, in hand orders, inventory, input price, sales price, employees, supplier delivery time, business activity expectations and so on 10 sub index. The index of classification is calculated by diffusion index, that is, the percentage of enterprises answered positively and half of the percentage of respondents who answered the same. Because there is no composite index in the non manufacturing sector, the general business activity index is generally used to reflect the overall change of the economic development of the non manufacturing industry.

(2) the calculation method of PMI index in manufacturing industry. Manufacturing PMI is calculated by weighting the 5 diffusion indices (classification index). The 5 classification index and its weights are determined according to their antecedent impact on the economy. Including: the new order index, the weight is 30%, the production index, the weight is 25%, the employee index, the weight is 20%, the supplier delivery time index, the weight is 15%, the raw material inventory index, the weight is 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, and the reverse operation is made in the synthetic manufacturing PMI index.

(3) comprehensive PMI output index calculation method. The composite PMI output index is weighted by the manufacturing production index and the non manufacturing business activity index. The weights are the proportion of manufacturing and non manufacturing industries to GDP.

5. seasonal adjustment

Purchasing manager survey is a monthly survey, which is affected by seasonal factors and fluctuates greatly. The indices now are all seasonally adjusted.