Last Year'S Issuance Of Over 270 Billion Record Convertible Bonds In 2020, The "Money Making" Effect Can Still Be Expected.

At the beginning of the year, the convertible bond market became hot.

Data show that the CSI bond index has risen continuously on the 4 trading day since the beginning of the year. In January 7th, the CSI bond index rose 0.23%, closing at 355.37 points, hitting a new high since August 11, 2015.

More convertible bonds rose to temporary suspension. In January 7th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that there were abnormal fluctuations in the gold convertible bonds and Mingyang convertible bonds trading, and the interim suspension was implemented. Before the suspension, two convertible bonds rose more than 20%.

In fact, the convertible bond market in the past 2019 has broken through. From the primary market, the number and scale of the issue have reached a new high. The two tier market is even more popular. Convertible bonds attract new investors, and the performance of the convertible bond fund also leads the debt list.

From the perspective of return analysis, the convertible bond market in 2019 is the two wheel drive of valuation and conversion value. The positive share contribution has contributed a lot, and the contribution of valuation increase can not be ignored. In fact, judging from the market situation in 2018, the mood is very pessimistic, the valuation is compressed to the bottom of the historical area, the average price of the convertible bond market is also below the face value, and the market as a whole is significantly undervalued. At this time, the convertible bond market has great allocation value, so we can see that the convertible bond market in 2019 is really good. Deng Xinyu, manager of Bo time bond enhancement bond fund, told the twenty-first Century business reporter.

2019 "good times"

Looking back, in 2019, the CSI bond index reached an annual increase of 25.15%. On a monthly basis, only in April and May, it fell and the remaining 10 months were closed up.

"At the beginning of 2019, with the easing of the panic in the equity market, the risk appetite rebounded, the convertible bond market stabilized and rebounded, the valuation increased, and the convertible bond market showed an unsatisfactory Yu Zheng stock market. In the second half of this year, with the improvement in the medium term expectation of the stock market, the valuation of the convertible bond market was very strong, and there was no fear of short-term fluctuations in the stock market." Deng Xinyu said.

In fact, from the performance of the public fund in the past year, the income of convertible bonds has also contributed a lot.

In twenty-first Century, according to the WIND data, according to the data compiled by the economic report, in the list of the annual income ranking of the bond fund in 2019, the convertible bond fund income led the way, and the results were all riding on the dust.

Data show that in 2019, the top 15 of bond fund income were convertible bond funds. Among them, the top 5 were the South China dollar convertible bonds, Huabao convertible bonds, huitianfu convertible bonds A, Changsheng convertible bonds C, Changsheng convertible bonds A, and the 5 fund's annual returns in 2019 were 38.95%, 34.82%, 33.33%, 33.27% and 32.87% respectively.

Correspondingly, the ratio of allocation of convertible bonds to institutions has also reached a high point.

From the three quarterly report of the public fund in 2019, the market value of convertible bonds held by public funds at the end of the three quarter was 74 billion 264 million yuan, which was higher than the 68 billion 385 million yuan at the end of the two quarter of 2019, and the growth rate was 8.6%. The absolute size has also surpassed the bull market in 2014, a record high.

"The main reason for the high allocation rate is that the absolute return space is narrowed and the investment income may not meet the expected target in the low yield of the pure debt market, so more bond investors will turn their attention to the convertible bond market in order to obtain excess returns." A large public fund fixed income director said.

In terms of the primary market, the issuance of convertible bonds in 2019 is also particularly hot. According to WIND statistics, according to the date of issue announcement, a total of 161 convertible bonds were issued in 2019, and the total scale of issuance reached 275 billion 844 million yuan.

In 2018, a total of 92 convertible bonds were issued throughout the year, with a scale of 79 billion 417 million yuan. In contrast, the size of 2019 increased by 247%.

Specifically, several bank "giant" convertible bonds contributed most. For example, in 2019, the top four debt issuance scale was issued by banks, with a scale of more than 20 billion yuan. Among them, the largest issue of PUFA convertible bonds is 50 billion yuan, followed by CITIC bonds, Ping Yin convertible bonds and Su Yin convertible bonds. The scale of issuance is 40 billion yuan, 26 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan respectively.

Enthusiasm for distribution remains high.

The convertible bond market in the past year has also stimulated the current layout of the institution.

"We are still relatively optimistic about the market in 2020, and the positive stock drive is worth looking forward to. Although the overall valuation has returned to the high level in the past two years in January 2018 and March 2019, the absolute level is not outstanding and reasonable." The aforementioned public fund investment director thinks.

"At present, the trend of the stock market has entered a stage of shock, and the vulnerable sectors of the convertible bonds have been rising. This may mean that the short-term valuation rises to the end. However, we should pay close attention to whether the stock gains can be relayed or not. A fixed fund director of Shanghai Public Offering Fund pointed out.

On the recent market situation, since 2020, convertible bond market is still popular.

Since the beginning of January 7th, the CSI bond index has continued to rise. In addition to the above mentioned gold conversion bonds and Mingyang convertible bonds, in January 3rd, Eagle 19 convertible bonds were temporarily suspended by the Shanghai stock exchange because of abnormal fluctuations in transactions. That day was the first day of its listing, and the final closing rate was 22.34%. The new money making effect of convertible bonds is still attracting attention.

In fact, the winning rate of gold convertible bonds is also one of the lowest in the near future. The bulletin shows that the online success rate of gold convertible bonds is 0.0047%. Besides, from last year to the beginning of this year, there were more than 1/10000 convertible bonds, such as sent convertible bonds, Xintian convertible bonds and Ford convertible bonds.

"On the one hand, there are some signs of stabilization in the short-term economy, and there is no sign of obvious tightening in monetary policy. On the other hand, corporate earnings will improve. The expected profit growth has already passed the low point of the current round of adjustment, and the profit growth rate of listed companies in 2020 will be significantly better than that in 2019. At the same time, domestic capital market reform has been moving forward, and the result is worth looking forward to. In addition, the pure debt market can not see a particularly good opportunity, part of the funds turn to the convertible bond market is worth looking forward to, this will provide strong support for demand. Deng Xinyu said.

On the specific configuration strategy, CITIC Securities Research believes that the recent differentiation of bonds in the convertible bond market is becoming more and more obvious, and the main line of the market is becoming clearer. The most important problem in the current strategy of convertible bonds is to analyze the short-term direction of the equity market. However, judging the general trend is always full of uncertainty. Compared with that, we are more willing to find a plate with a higher certainty in the short-term, a cycle plate, a technology block and a value plate.

Haitong Fund pointed out that "A share earnings rise, structural market can be expected." The specific allocation of convertible bonds is concerned with the growth of high degree of prosperity and the consumption sector, but we need to be alert to the impact of liquidity.