Polyester Price Increases Have "Bottom Gas", Low Price Grey Cloth Become "Past"! The Market Is Better This Year Than In Early 19.

Since the beginning of 2020, the situation in the US and Iraq has been upgraded to a "strong heart" in the original weak textile market. The price of bulk textile raw materials has increased, stimulating downstream traders to take delivery of goods, and some manufacturers have better inventory conditions.

After the end of this year's market, the stock control of polyester filament enterprises is in the safe period. Next, along with the decline of weaving start up, polyester filament enterprises are also running down and running. The market of polyester filament yarn before the Spring Festival is experiencing the market situation of short and short playing, and the willingness to pull up after the festival is urgent, mainly based on the following considerations:

1, after the Spring Festival, polyester filament enterprises inventory pressure is not large.

In the whole year, there are two peaks and three trough periods in polyester filament stock. The first trough appeared before the Spring Festival. At the end of the year, the enterprises took the risk of avoiding risks, and the preferential sales promotion before the festival had a significant effect on the inventory. In the month, the price trend of polyester filament also showed a state of first suppression and later promotion. The difference between the high and low price was 350 yuan / ton in the month. The second trough appeared at the end of June. During the first quarter of the doldrums, the polyester filament enterprises had built up their stocks, and heard that some enterprises were stockpiling outside the factory area.

Since May, the polyester filament enterprise has launched a sales promotion mode, and its inventory has dropped rapidly. By the end of June, the overall inventory of the industry has decreased by 18-19 days. The corresponding price has also been increasing. In early June, polyester filament POY150D/48F talked about the focus of 7450 yuan / ton, and in early July, the price was raised to 8900 yuan / ton, and the price difference was 1500 yuan / ton.

According to this logic, low inventory is an important booster of market rising, and the stock of polyester filament industry is at a low level at present. The enterprise still expresses that there is still a plan to promote inventory at the end of the year. It is hoped that the inventory control will reach a level within a week at the end of the year, even if there is a certain amount of pre storage period during the Spring Festival.

2, the load of polyester filament is still high, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent.

The above table is for the statistics of the maintenance of the polyester filament device in the near future. In December, the production capacity of the device was reduced by about 2 million 400 thousand tons. The capacity of the repair plant was about 4 million tons before the Spring Festival. In addition, the pre parking device had not been restarted. From a comprehensive perspective, before the Spring Festival, the repair capacity of polyester filament accounts for more than 20% of the total capacity of the country, and it is expected to start to near 78%.

However, in 2019, compared with 2018, it was still at a high level, and the overhaul at the end of the year was much less than that of the same period last year. So the low start up in 2019 is not really low.

It is understood that at present, the downstream industry of POY has been reduced to 76%, and the start of chemical fiber weaving is near 64%. To the main application fields of polyester, the water jet loom in Shengze is about 73%, and the loom loom in Changxin has been reduced to 6. Therefore, compared with the downstream, the load of polyester filament is still high, so the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent.

3, the cost pressures of enterprises are highlighted, and the willingness to pull up after the holidays is urgent.

As shown above, the trend of POY and FDY is quite similar. In the second half of the year, the trend of DTY deviates from the trend of POY and FDY. In particular, since the four quarter, FDY has been losing money. Since December, ethylene glycol has been affected by the news of closure, prices have skyrocketed and plummeted, while polyester filament has failed to follow up, and enterprises have been digesting some of their gains, so profits are gradually shrinking and even losing money. At the end of the year, with the raw materials down, the profit level of polyester filament has improved. However, FDY is hovering near the profit and loss balance line. The pressure of business cost pressure is obvious.

1, at the end of the year, raw materials "red", gray cloth manufacturers take advantage of the "price increase"!

The price of raw materials has been rising frequently in recent years, so that the textile boss who has been hovering around the profit and loss line will "add insult to injury". In particular, nylon products have risen considerably in the past two months, and some of the manufacturers of nylon fabrics have raised their quotas as early as the beginning of the month. "Recently, the price of NIS spinning has risen slightly, but it has only increased by a few wool. This year, nears spinning is not selling well. We are making regenerated nylon in transition." A polyamide manufacturer in Wujiang said.

In the past, the prices of raw materials for weaving enterprises were not as sensitive as they are now. Under normal circumstances, the price of raw materials has risen to 1000 yuan / ton, which will increase the price of grey cloth by 0.10 yuan per meter. Why does the raw material increase only a few hundred yuan in the near future? Very simply, prices have fallen through the bottom and no way to fall!

Entering the 2019, the entire weaving market has been plagued by overcapacity and imbalance between supply and demand. Manufacturers are short of bargaining power, and prices are falling all the time. Many textile bosses have to sell stocks or even sell at a loss. As a result, the price of the whole market is chaotic, and all the way down to the low price in recent years: for example, 190T polyester taff dropped from 1.80 yuan to 1 yuan; 75D 24T Chiffon dropped from 3.3 yuan to 2.6 yuan; 75D weft twist imitation memory dropped from 2.8 yuan to 2.3 yuan;

According to rough estimates, the price of grey cloth fell by 25-45% this year. "This year, the market price is more chaotic. The price of our spring yarns has been depressed by customers. It can only be a single order. Some products are losing money, some are slightly profitable, and the bottom line is managed." Chen Zong said in Wujiang area.

Chen also said that the price of raw materials before holidays was mixed. "Raw materials will go up every year before the holidays, and this year's rise is not unusual. But now we have low profit margins, and if we want to go up later, we will raise the price."

2, Sino US relations are still releasing positive signals, opening up a new way for orders in 2020.

Recently, many textile owners said they would not pull up their quotations in the near future. On the one hand, the order has come to an end. At present, there is no substantial effect on the price increase. On the other hand, the stock in the factory has not been consumed after all, and the price of grey cloth is still rising or lacking power. "Although price increases also need raw materials to pull, there is little room for prices to fall further." Another silk imitated manufacturer, General Yang, said.

Many market participants say that the past 2019 is just the labor pains of overcapacity. Although the pain is still there, the pain may ease with 2020. After all, a big black swan in the market is changing to the best. China and the United States will sign the first stage economic and trade agreement next week. China's textile and garment industry has been stimulating the export oriented economy with cheap labor force, and has also created a golden period in the past few years.

Since the beginning of the Sino US trade war, European and American customers have greatly reduced the purchase orders, and even more have cancelled orders and destroyed orders. With a year of "love and hate", most textile bosses have opened up a new way for orders in 2020.

In addition, the recent Sino US relations are still releasing positive signals: China and the United States will sign the first stage economic and trade agreement next week, and the US side will stage a phased cancellation of tariffs on Chinese products. For the textile foreign trade boss in 2020, although the story of "wolf coming" has heard more, it is at least a good start.

3, the new season orders have been in preparation, there is a rigid demand for the material.

In addition, the inventory of grey fabric manufacturers is larger this year, and another main factor is that there are more stock in downstream garment industry. Due to the anticipation of the cold winter in the previous year, most clothing enterprises have hoarding a lot of winter clothes, and coupled with the warm winter this year has led to the further down sale of down garments and cotton clothes, and the clothing industry is afraid to store up goods to the upstream, causing the imbalance between supply and demand of grey fabrics. In 2020, new spring and summer costumes are being prepared.

Unlike the down jacket, spring and summer fashions demand higher style, so they need to re play and purchase. Therefore, the rigid demand for fabrics still exists. "At present, our orders have been received in April, all of which are simulated silk fabrics. Recently, there are not many stocks in the factory. They are busy making fixed fabrics. Next year they will start to imitate silk or raise their points." A textile owner with hundreds of looms in Shengze said.

According to convention, after the Spring Festival in the past year, the trading atmosphere will gradually resume, and domestic demand and foreign trade orders will be further released. But there are too many uncertainties in the market this year. The boundary between the off-season and the peak season has been blurred. But it is certain that the raw material market is not easy to go up, but the fall is also difficult.