Under The Wuhan Epidemic: The Troubles Of The Strong Provincial Metropolis Circle

In December 31, 2019, the news of "unexplained pneumonia patients in Wuhan" was uploaded in social media. Ordinary people never thought that this would be the biggest black swan that affected Hubei and the social and economic operation in the whole country in 2020.

In the middle and January of the year, Wu Han people were still visiting relatives and parties as before. During the same period, the two sessions of Wuhan and two sessions of Hubei province were held in Wuhan. As a thoroughfare of nine provinces and a city with millions of college students, Wuhan sends a large number of people and logistics every day, including many college students and migrant workers who are returning home before the Spring Festival.

In January 20th, the official announcement said that the new coronavirus could be transmitted to humans. In January 23rd, Wuhan announced the "closure of the city". In the next few days, all prefecture level cities in Hubei entered the state of closure, and cities, villages and small families became isolated islands of active or passive isolation.

When analyzing the impact of the epidemic on Wuhan metropolitan area, Hubei and even the whole country, we have to mention the regional pattern of Wuhan's single largest city in Hubei province and the pivotal position of the nine provinces in Wuhan. In the epidemic, the worst hit areas after Wuhan are located in the 1+8 city circle of Wuhan. These cities are also the key areas for the tight supply of medical protection materials, and the distribution centers for the inter city personnel flow around Wuhan.

Greater Wuhan metropolitan area

As at 16:30 on February 2nd, Hubei reported 9074 cases of pneumonia caused by new coronavirus, including 4109 cases in Wuhan, 1002 cases in Huanggang and 749 cases in Xiaogan.

In twenty-first Century, the economic report reporters in Suizhou, Hubei, a small prefecture level city with a total population of 2 million 210 thousand in Hubei, has reached 384 Cases in February 2nd, and 76 confirmed cases in January 31st.

In the impact of the epidemic on Hubei, many people realized the importance of Wuhan to Hubei. Wuhan is very large. In 2019, Wuhan accounted for 35% of Hubei's GDP.

Wuhan is the most expensive city in the provincial capital cities of China. In 2003, in order to change Wuhan's "one city alone" situation, Hubei established the "one main two deputy" development strategy, and Xiangyang and Yichang were listed as "provincial sub center cities". Until 2019, the sum of GDP in Yichang and Xiangyang was just over half of that in Wuhan. Jingzhou, Huanggang and Xiaogan, the third tier of the economic queue in the province, account for about 1/8 of the total economic output in Wuhan.

From the perspective of industrial structure, the three traditional pillar industries in Hubei include automobile, building materials and chemical industry. The three industries contributed 24.5% to industrial growth in 2019. The automobile industry in Hubei has developed well in the whole country. There are leading enterprises such as Dongfeng Motor Corporation, and in the areas of Wuhan, Xiangyang, Shiyan, Suizhou and so on, the automobile and auto parts industry clusters that have begun to take shape are formed.

Corresponding to the economic concentration, the population of all cities in Hubei is also constantly concentrated in Wuhan. A Hubei person doing business in a county town said that the majority of the vegetable market traders in the county had bought a house in Wuhan, and the younger generation mostly settled in Wuhan. As early as January 23rd, before Wuhan closed the city, many people in the surrounding cities in Wuhan had returned to their hometown. They do not think that this is "escape from Wuhan", because many people had not been aware of the epidemic before, but they returned to their hometown as usual in the past year.

Half a month ago, in twenty-first Century, the business reporter from Beijing to Wuhan could hardly see anyone wearing masks at the high-speed rail station and the subway station. There are still a lot of tourists punching cards on the Li Huangpi road in old Hankou, and all the seats of Wuchang's East Lake lake are full.

In the epidemic, the worst hit areas after Wuhan are located in the 1+8 city circle of Wuhan. These cities are also the key areas of tight supplies, and the distribution centers for the inter city personnel flow around Wuhan. In particular, the two cities adjacent to Wuhan, Huanggang and Xiaogan, are less than 100 kilometers from Wuhan, and the intercity rail transit can reach half an hour, which is the core node city of Wuhan metropolitan area.

Relative to the most concentrated medical resources in Wuhan, the medical resources of surrounding prefecture level cities are not optimistic about the epidemic situation. In January 28th, a doctor at a county hospital in Hubei told the twenty-first Century business news reporter that at present, there are not enough testing agents in county hospitals, resulting in many doubtful cases being difficult to diagnose. There are also confirmed cases that can not arrange hospitalization at home, and doctors voluntarily contact outside medical supplies to donate, but it is difficult for them to get supplies in dispatching.

In January 31st, Huanggang announced that from February 1st, residents' travel control measures were implemented within the urban area of Huanggang to strictly control the urban residents' travel. Every family can assign 1 family members to purchase materials for daily life every two days. Other personnel may not go out except for illness, medical treatment, epidemic prevention and control, work in Shang Chao and pharmacies.

A worker from a certain institution in Huanggang told the twenty-first Century business reporter that the streets and lakeside of Huanggang city are now empty. In recent days, she just went out to buy vegetables in the government allowed vegetable farm in January 30th.

Wuhan and Hubei face multiple economic impacts

For those in Hubei who are segregated at home, it is unknown when they can rework and when the city closes.

In February 1st, Ms Xiao volunteered at a high-speed toll station in Wuhan to test the temperature of passing goods and other vehicle personnel. She is the boss of a foreign trade company in Wuhan. The company has no employees to return to the city and has no business. It is difficult to finish 30%-40% in the first quarter. In January 19th, when he met Ms Xiao in Wuhan in twenty-first Century, she had a very optimistic expectation about the growth of the company's business in 2020. At that time, she and many other people in Wuhan were not aware of the epidemic.

"In front of the epidemic, life and death are not important. Houses and money are not so important." After the outbreak alarm, she signed up as a volunteer to leave her child at her parents' home in advance and live alone in the company dormitory.

The difficulty of starting a project is a problem in the whole province of Hubei province. A government official in Hubei revealed that the opening ceremony of Hubei's major project was held in Yichang at the beginning of the month ten.

A well-known automobile Brand Company in Wuhan told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter that the impact of the epidemic on Hubei is all-around, affecting the host plant, suppliers, distributors and so on. At present, the problems faced by Hubei's auto enterprises include the unknown return of employees to the city, the failure to guarantee the supply of parts and components (resumption of production, logistics and transportation), and no sales of consumers at the sales terminals. According to the introduction, the staff of Wuhan vehicle and parts enterprises are mostly Hubei people. The management posts can be online, and the first line operation must have people at the production site, while many front line employees are located in the surrounding counties and cities of Wuhan. He himself is also isolated from the rural areas in a certain county and city surrounding Wuhan.

The impact of the service sector is also obvious. In the first three quarters of 2019, the added value of Wuhan's service industry increased by 9%, and its contribution to economic growth reached 58.7%. The service oriented economy was basically formed. Tourism in other cities of Hubei, such as Yichang and Enshi, which are well developed in tourism economy, have been hit.

Where to go network CEO Chen Gang analysis, tourism is a relatively mature industry, thin and large volume, when facing systemic risk, the ability to resist risks is very weak. Faced with the fact that the development of the epidemic is uncertain and the market demand is decreasing, no enterprise can be single.

There is an optimistic view that the pace of industrial transformation and upgrading in Hubei and Wuhan will be further accelerated after the outbreak. Qin Zunwen, director of the Hubei provincial government advisory committee and Hubei provincial "one belt and one road" Research Institute, told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter that Wuhan's big health industry will have a leapfrog development because people pay more attention to health. Following the national storage, network security talents and innovation, new energy and intelligent network, the four major national industrial bases of automobile and aerospace industry, Wuhan has to build a big health industry base, and its position will be more prominent in the future.

Qin Zunwen believes that in 2020, Hubei's economic data will show a significant decline in the 1 and February compared with the same period last year. The epidemic makes enterprises underrun, and some even stop production and business completely. The two quarter will also have a greater impact. Even after the end of the epidemic, Hubei will face a shortage of labor because of its slow recovery.

"At the same time, the work of attracting foreign investment has also stopped." Qin Zunwen said that the impact of the epidemic on the total retail sales of consumer goods in large and medium-sized cities such as Wuhan will be great, and Wuhan has been ranked the top in the country. Overall, the downward pressure on Hubei's economy in 2020 is larger than that in any other province or city.

However, Wuhan and Hubei are not fighting alone, and all the provinces from the central government to the whole country attach great importance to epidemic prevention and control.

Qin Zunwen believes that the economic development situation in Beijing and Guangdong in 2003 the SARS epidemic has rebounded markedly in the following year. I believe Hubei has the conditions to revive development after the outbreak of the epidemic.

Shenyang, a professor of Tsinghua University who has lived in Wuhan for many years, has been appealed to organize volunteers and related agencies to take part in the epidemic prevention and control.

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