The Golden Week Of Spring Festival, Which Has Been Changed By The Epidemic, Is Hard To Change In The Rat Year'S Tourism Industry.

It is only 20 days since January 20th, but it is as long as a century.

Before January 20th, almost no one doubted that the number of Chinese New Year trips in 2020 would exceed 450 million. In fact, this is the most deserted Spring Festival Golden Week in history. From thirty to the beginning of the new year, all tourist attractions such as scenic spots and museums are not open.

"If the optimistic estimate of 60% months' reduction in three months is reduced by 60%, and the recovery period in the three months will be reduced by 30%, the national tourism industry is expected to lose nearly 3 trillion yuan this year." Wu Bihu, director of the tourism research and planning center of Peking University, analyzed the twenty-first Century economic report. In 2020, for the vast majority of small and medium-sized tourism enterprises, "living" is the biggest victory.

Press pause key

Although there was a media attention before New Year's day, no one had expected that the new coronavirus spreading quietly in Wuhan was threatening.

In January 21st, Wuhan began to strengthen the control of personnel entering and leaving Wuhan. Since then, the situation has changed sharply. By January 27th, all tour group business, including outbound travel, will be suspended.

Within the next few days, 30 provinces and municipalities nationwide launched a major public health emergency response. According to the regulations, all scenic spots and cruise ships in the country have been suspended for a long time, and travel agencies and online travel businesses across the country have suspended business group travel, outbound travel and "ticket + Hotel" tourism products. Large cultural exhibitions, exhibitions and mass cultural activities and tourism activities will be suspended immediately.

Taking Jilin Province as an example, as at 16:00 on January 26th, there were 1443 travel agencies and outlets, public libraries, museums, cultural centers (stations) and art galleries in the province of Jilin, with a suspended operation rate of 100%. 231 provincial level scenic spots suspended operation. The province's recent 310 tourism and cultural festivals, 56 theatrical performances, and 50 "Jilin tours, stimulating consumption potential" mass performance series are all suspended.

According to the Ministry of transport data, on January 10th -31, the total number of passengers sent by railways, roads, waterways and civil aviation totaled 1 billion 258 million passengers, down 20.6% from the same period last year. Among them, the number of passengers sent by the railway dropped by 188 million, decreased by 10.7%; the number of passengers sent to the roads by 1 billion 20 million times decreased by 22.1%; the number of passengers sent by waterways decreased by 15 million 849 thousand; the number of passengers sent by civil aviation dropped 33 million 890 thousand.

If we look closely at the data during the golden week this year, the decline will be even greater. The seven days of new year's Eve to the sixth day of the lunar new year are originally the largest number of trips during the Spring Festival. The number of people travelling in the golden week of Spring Festival in 2019 and the seven days in February 4th to February 10th is 421 million. The total number of people travelling in China from January 24th to January 30th this year is 151 million 766 thousand, up 63.9% from the same period.

Throughout China, in the most exciting Spring Festival holiday in previous years, the tourism industry has been suspended as a result of a sudden pause.

Travel shock wave

In January 23rd, Ctrip, flying pigs, Hornets nest and many other OTA platforms, as well as the Civil Aviation Administration and the Ministry of railways, announced that after 24 days, hotels, air tickets, train tickets and so on could be returned for free. As a result, the major online travel platforms are busy during the golden week.

As the largest tourism business in China, OTA is also most impressed by Ctrip's golden week. "Millions of orders to be changed, instantaneous 10 times the amount of telephone incoming line, 13 hours limit overtime." Sun Jie of CEO of carry Cheng group says.

The golden week of Spring Festival this year can also be called "Spring Festival unsubscribe week" for Ctrip.

In terms of tourism and vacation, Ctrip announced in January 26th that the order of global team tour, semi self help and customized tour will be free to cancel the departure date after January 27th and February 29th. Within 5 days, Ctrip has basically completed all of the above unsubscribed jobs. Behind this, the Ctrip holiday service department takes on tremendous instantaneous pressure, and the composition of tourist holiday orders is complex. Ctrip's consultation resources are changed over 500 thousand times.

As for hotels, due to the large volume of orders, the number of incoming lines increased by 8 times during the peak period in January 23rd, and the peak value of IM increased by 12 times. Many customer service carried 13 hours of extreme shift.

As for the air tickets, as of January 30th, the platform received a total of millions of rebate requests, compared with the daily growth of nearly 10 times. On the eve of new year's Eve, the highest peak of retreat is coming.

As for train tickets, Ctrip has received 60 million consultations. The volume of single day business has increased by 300% over the same period last year, increasing by 500% compared with the average day. It received nearly 10 million consultations within one day.

Almost every OTA that needs to be dealt with in time requires huge funding guarantees for the epidemic. According to Ma cellular tourism, the tourism products such as air tickets, hotels and so on caused by the epidemic were retreated. By January 30th, Ma cellular tourism had already raised more than 500 million yuan for the consumers' immediate refund.

Ctrip, Ma beehive and Tongcheng OTA have large amounts of money and relatively sufficient funds. For most small and medium-sized travel agencies, the financial pressure caused by the cancellation of large quantities of tourist orders is mostly.

Wang Xianxiu, general manager of spring travel agency of Mount Holyoke County, Lu'an, Anhui, told the twenty-first Century economic report that dozens of people had arranged tours to the southern cities during the Spring Festival, such as Lijiang, Southeast Asia and so on. In February, there was a large group of 200 people. But in January 23rd, seeing that the epidemic became more and more serious, he took the initiative to unsubscribe these tour fees and gave the passengers a full refund.

Wang Xianxiu said the epidemic would be a great loss to small travel agencies such as them. Wages, rents and insurance should be paid during the epidemic. If the epidemic continues to affect, "it is hard to insist on" not having any business for several months and spending. " Wang Xian show reluctantly.

"During the Spring Festival, it was one of the three peak seasons for outbound tourism, outbound tourism, vacation and leisure travel, and visiting relatives and friends." Wu Bihu said that quite a lot of travel agencies, hotels, restaurants, and performing enterprises paid large sums of money to prepare products for this purpose. Now all of them have been shut down, and the losses have been serious.

Wu Bi Hu explained that in 2019, many domestic tourism businesses were less than half or even 1/3 of their normal state in previous years. Based on the fact that there was no accumulation of funds last year, because of the bad start of the epidemic this year, for the vast majority of small and medium-sized tourism enterprises in 2020, "living" is the key word.

Industry losses to be determined

The outbreak of the epidemic will not only stop the golden week of the Spring Festival of China's tourism industry, but also continue to affect the development of the subsequent tourism industry.

How big is this impact? The most intuitive prediction, or permission from the loss of SARS epidemic 17 years ago, was assessed accordingly.

Economist Teng Tai pointed out that the impact of SARS on China's economy in 2003 was only reflected in the second quarter, resulting in a 2 percentage point drop in GDP growth during the quarter. Following the lifting of the epidemic, economic growth rebounded rapidly and the annual growth rate reached 10%. Tengtai stressed that predicting the impact of the epidemic on China's economy can not simply go through the SARS period to find experience, but must make an objective assessment and forecast based on the study of new epidemic situation, new social response mode and new economic background, and put forward feasible countermeasures.

Li Jin, a researcher with the center for corporate governance and innovation of the Yangtze River Business School, holds similar views. He thinks the impact of the epidemic on the economy in 2003 is different from that in stages, environment, structure, industrial chain and quantity.

Li Jin also believes that during the period of SARS, China's GDP is only 13 trillion yuan, and now it is 100 trillion yuan. The huge difference means that the total amount of economic activities impacted and affected by the epidemic is far greater than that year.

According to Li Xinjian, Dean of the school of tourism management of Beijing International Studies University, the loss of the tourism industry during the Spring Festival in 2020 is about 550 billion.

Xie Xiang Xiang, an associate professor of Tourism College of Hainan University, also believes that the impact of the epidemic has occurred and can not be reversed. Eating, living, traveling, shopping, entertainment and entertainment are all frustrated. The consumption demand is cut off and the cash flow of tourism enterprises is facing difficulties. It is urgent to explore the sharing mechanism and spirit of contract that can be shared and shared.

Self rescue of tourism enterprises

In fact, the self-help reaction of the tourism industry is more rapid than that during the SARS period. Each Dalian lock hotel takes the lead in reducing its hotel's burden.

After the outbreak of the outbreak, Hua lived in January 23rd to announce the suspension of the management fee and central booking fee of the franchised stores in Wuhan. In January 30th, it announced that it was waiving the management fee of the hotel to be expropriated. With the development of epidemic situation, more and more franchisees are under attack. On January 31, Hua Hua Group announced that it would upgrade its franchisee assistance policy. From February 1, 2020 to March 31, 2020, half of the 5049 franchised stores across the country were charged to join the management fee. In addition, the franchised stores in the inner city of Hubei province were exempt from the management fee and the central booking fee.

Jinhui, CO chairman of Hua Hua group, said: "we can not avoid the huge impact of this epidemic on our accommodation industry. Whether it is the group or the owners, it is bound to suffer huge losses and pressure. At this difficult time, in order to tide over the difficulties together with the whole nation's partners, Hua Zhu is willing to sacrifice its own interests to alleviate the pressure of franchisees in special times.

The Jinjiang capital company of Jinjiang group is also the first batch of hotel enterprises announcing free subscription in Wuhan, and has launched a series of policies to reduce the franchise management fees of Wuhan franchisees, and to reduce the cost of joining the hotels nationwide.

In order to reduce the pressure on franchised hotels, the first brigade Home Inn group announced that the franchised hotels which were requisitioned by government agencies nationwide were exempt from the use of franchise hotels and service support fees during the period of requisition.

Kaiyuan hotel group also announced that it will be free from all the entrusted management brands in the country to manage the management fees of hotels from January 24th to February 29th. Wuhan joined the management hotel to waive the management fees in the first quarter of 2020 and fully support all the owners' partners to tide over the difficulties.

But for hotels, the biggest cost of operation is not the cost of joining, but the cost of property. According to Huang Hongyu, head of the Wuhan epidemic prevention and control group of Jinjiang capital company, the property rents of general hotels account for 20%-30% of the hotel operating cost. If we can reduce this part of the cost, we will undoubtedly help the hotel industry suffering from the epidemic. Therefore, some hotel operators hope to jointly call on the owners to reduce rent fees and spend time together.

OTA also provides assistance to the hotel. CEO Chen Ruiliang, senior vice president of Ctrip group and large residential business group, said that due to the further changes of the epidemic situation, consumers in the new policies of various aspects of the world have increased their demand for unsubscribed demand. If the countries where the hotel is scheduled, the entry of Chinese citizens or the scheduled flights are restricted, Ctrip will postpone the plan of "reassuring cancellation". Chen Ruiliang said that the implementation of the extension plan can not be separated from the full support of Ctrip The Globe Hotel and supplier partners. After the end of the epidemic, Ctrip will launch the exclusive "love hotel labels" for these hotels, and invest billions of marketing resources to repay these hotels. "We hope that consumers will give priority to these" love hotels "when they travel after the epidemic. Chen Ruiliang road.

Save the hotel, save the travel agency. Ctrip's three brand, Ctrip, where to travel and know everything, 8000 tourist stores are also under pressure. Ctrip Travel channel business unit CEO tension said, Ctrip will launch a "store care plan", including temporary exemption from the management fee during the epidemic period for 3 months, and the stores signed their respective tasks to extend the 3 months, in order to ease the operating pressure of the store. At the same time, the program will launch a number of elite courses for the store staff, including product knowledge, sales skills, data analysis, customer relationship management, etc.

Li Xinjian hopes that big enterprises can take full account of the ability of SMEs to deal with crisis from the perspective of protecting the tourism ecosystem, otherwise it will easily damage or even disrupt the supplier system, which will affect the development ability of large enterprises in the whole industrial ecosystem. Inbound tourism needs more time to recover, so how to save the supply system is no small challenge. Moreover, it is hoped that more overseas suppliers can take into account the epidemic situation and take a long-term view, and carry out corresponding consultation and adjustment with the Chinese tourism enterprises in terms of the original contract performance and loss sharing.

Looking forward to recovery

The impact of SARS on tourism has lasted for more than a year, and inbound tourism has not even slowed down for many years. Therefore, Li Xinjian is also worried that the recovery cycle of inbound tourism may be longer. However, the growth of outbound tourism may usher in a new wave of rapid growth after the end of the epidemic, while the high frequency consumption of domestic tourism surrounding the market, especially the lighter areas and surrounding cities, may be the first to start after the outbreak.

How fast the tourism industry will recover will not only depend on the duration of the epidemic, but also on the industry's self-help behavior. It also depends on whether the government can provide key assistance measures.

Dongcheng group has the largest number of chain hotels in Wuhan, the worst hit area. Mr. Sun Ming, President of Hubei East International Group, suggested that the government should introduce specific policies and measures to stimulate tourism and the recovery and development of the lodging industry. At the same time, government procurement should be intensified, and some eligible chain hotels should be included in the procurement and service list. He hopes to push ahead with the implementation of the business operation loan policy of the CIRC, as much as possible to provide interest free loans (more than one year) to enterprises, and supplement operating cash flow to support enterprise development.

Lai Ming also suggested that through tax and administrative policies, the tourism accommodation industry, especially the enterprises in the epidemic areas, should be reduced or reduced, and tax or subsidies should be provided to guide and pry the upstream and downstream businesses to reduce operating costs, such as rental costs and labor costs (manpower subsidies). In addition, tax rebate policy can be adopted: value added tax and income tax have been collected in 2019. At the same time, social security and provident fund are allowed to be postpone for one year.

Wu Bihu pointed out that 2020 will be extremely difficult for tourism enterprises, and many enterprises need to break their arms to survive. However, some ministries and local governments have recently reiterated the relevant provisions of the labor law, do not allow enterprises to lay off workers, and maintain double wages during the holidays. He suggested that deregulation should be relaxed so that enterprises can reduce their burden and survive.

Li Xinjian said that the government needs to give support in terms of tax policies and subsidies. At the same time, it also needs to reflect on policies and measures that have caused great impact on the industry in the past.

In the second half of last year, the ministries of State Council, the national development and Reform Commission, the Central Organization Department, the Ministry of culture and tourism and other ministries issued relevant policy documents to stimulate the potential of tourism consumption and to accelerate the implementation of paid vacation and improve the system of paid vacation. It is necessary to make rational decisions on how to weigh the current difficulties and long-term needs and further deepen the reform of the holiday system. If we can implement the convenience measures such as paid vacation, we can obviously reduce the concentration of outbound travel expenses, and also help to reduce the loss when we encounter similar public events.

Li Xinjian also believes that although most enterprises are just thinking about how to live and how the original business will continue, they need to look up at the distance. "Strategic problems need to be calmly ponder through this rare time to find innovative empty space." In Li Xinjian's view, 2020 may also be a year of hard transformation of Chinese tourism.

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