Real Estate "Epidemic" Second Wave: Chamber Of Commerce Solidarity With The Introduction Of More Stable Property Market New Deal

"The single month funding gap of enterprises will reach 10 billion yuan -110 billion yuan, while the first half of 2019 is only 35 billion yuan, which will superimpose the other rigid expenses such as the wages of enterprise personnel, the amount of project to be paid, interest expenses and so on. The monetary fund of 35 billion yuan or only enough to maintain the operation for three months. If the epidemic lasts for two months without corresponding policy support and proper tilt, enterprises will face enormous operational pressure.

At the end of the year, the new crown pneumonia epidemic swept across the country, and the real estate market was hit by a "pause button" as well as other industries. For the real estate industry whose cash flow is king, the pressure is self-evident. In February 13th, the real estate association of the whole Union made a conclusion through a survey of a typical housing company.

In this regard, through a series of research, the all real estate chamber of Commerce put forward a package of proposals, hoping that the government can "stabilize the industry's expectations and help the industry get through the difficult period" because of the strategy of the city and the implementation of policies.

Before that, three real estate associations and chambers of Commerce in Jiangxi, Anhui and Chongqing also issued documents, requesting government departments to give policy support.

At the same time, these voices and suggestions have been landed in many provinces and cities. On February 12th and 13, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Wuxi, Nanchang, Xi'an, Nanjing and other places issued documents to relax the existing market regulation policies to help real estate enterprises cope with the epidemic.

Restriction policy red line will not easily break through

In the face of the impact of the epidemic, the real estate association of the Federation has given 15 specific policy proposals from four aspects, namely, financing, capital supervision, tax payment, resumption and resumption of production. These include moderate easing of credit policy, granting loans for renewal or renewal of loans, appropriately relaxing the supervision of pre-sale funds, postponing the transfer of land leasing fees, and reducing the late fees.

The real estate association also suggested that the real estate control policies should be adjusted in a timely and appropriate manner. "Continue to carry out the implementation of the strategy, some cities can further relax the policy of talent placement, moderate release restriction policy, to meet residents' demand for self occupation."

In the policy recommendations issued by Anhui Real Estate Chamber of Commerce, Chongqing Real Estate Chamber of Commerce and Jiangxi Real Estate Association, similar measures have been put forward. Among them, phasing out restriction and restriction on property market has become a common appeal of these places.

Coincidentally, Meng Xiaosu, chairman of the China real estate group and Huili fund, had also appealed to "cancel the purchase of the property market as soon as possible and let the real estate industry go on the road of healthy and sustainable development."

In the current market regulation policy, the "restriction order" is considered to be one of the most decisive and signalling means. But for now, this "red line" has not yet been broken through in many provinces and cities in stabilizing the property market.

In order to alleviate the impact of the epidemic, the recent policy support to the real estate industry includes six areas: Zhejiang, Shanghai, Wuxi, Xi'an, Nanchang and Nanjing. However, most of the support measures given by local governments at present are fine-tuning. These policies are mainly concentrated on postponing payment of taxes, delaying payment of land leasing fees and postponing completion and so on. In these policies, there is no deregulation of the terms of the "restriction order".

Relatively speaking, the support given by Wuxi is relatively large. For example, enterprises with due repayment difficulties can be extended, and the credit will grow reasonably and moderately. They should not blindly loan, break loans and pressure loans to ease the difficulty of liquidity. Loans that are due before June 30, 2020 and within a year of loan maturity will be implemented without repayment.

Yan Yuejin, director of think tank center of Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute, pointed out to the twenty-first Century economic report that these measures are not enough to quench thirst. But for the real estate industry affected by the epidemic, it is still an emergency means.

He believes that if the epidemic can not be controlled in the short term, it is expected that more cities will introduce relevant support measures in the future, and the support will also increase depending on the extent of the spread of the disease. But in the short term, the "red line" of the restriction policy will not be easily broken. And compared with policy support, whether housing companies can tide over difficulties depends more on their fundamentals.

Epidemic situation speeds up industry differentiation

What is the impact of the epidemic on the real estate industry? The all union real estate association said that 46 of the 72 enterprises surveyed (mainly small and medium sized enterprises) were affected by over 440 billion yuan in value, operating costs of about 23 billion 500 million yuan in a single month, nearly 530 billion yuan in the first half of 2020, 26 yuan in the industrial chain enterprises, and over 23 billion 500 million yuan in the backlog and 440 billion yuan in operation costs in the first half of 2020. Yuan.

The real estate association also pointed out that, as an important part of the national economy, the real estate industry has a large volume and a long chain of upstream and downstream industries, providing a large number of jobs. If there are turbulence in the real estate industry, the upstream and downstream industry chains will also suffer from varying degrees of impact, which will not only affect economic development, but also lead to unemployment and social instability. At the same time, all sectors of the real estate industry are closely related to the financial industry, and the problems of the real estate industry can easily lead to financial risks.

Compared with the "foresight" of the chamber of Commerce, there is also a view that the impact of the epidemic on the industry is mainly reflected in the "near worry".

A large housing company in Beijing told the economic report in twenty-first Century that the epidemic occurred before and after the Spring Festival. Because of the traditional "off-season" period, if the epidemic can be quickly controlled, the overall impact will not be great. And from the regional perspective, the three or four line cities with the "traditional" return home are more affected, and the second tier cities are relatively small.

It is reported that in response to the epidemic, many housing enterprises have opened online sales channels. But for the real estate transactions which are quite dependent on offline contacts, the effect is not obvious at present.

China Merchants Bank Research Institute pointed out that, overall, the epidemic has a certain impact on the real estate industry in the short term, but it has limited impact on the whole year. "Demand side, the epidemic has a greater impact on the first quarter sales, squeezing the demand for home buyers, but it is mainly the result of delayed demand, which has a relatively limited direct impact on year-round sales. The indirect effect is determined by the impact of the epidemic on the economy and the income of residents."

Ping An Securities said that the total debt maturity of Housing enterprises in 2020 was 1 trillion and 460 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, the amount of maturity increased month by month. The amount due in February was 67 billion 200 million, which accounted for 4.6% of the total annual value and increased to 124 billion in March.

The agency believes that if the epidemic was controlled in February, with the gradual recovery of the sales side, the overall pressure of debt repayment of Housing enterprises is not great; if the duration of the epidemic exceeds expected, the sales side will expand and the debt repayment scale will increase. If the financing side policy does not relax significantly, it is expected that the pressure on the capital side of some small and medium-sized Housing enterprises will gradually increase.

The two institutions believe that the current mainstream housing prices of short-term financial pressure is still in a controllable state, but small and medium housing prices are not optimistic. After the outbreak, the industry concentration will accelerate.

In twenty-first Century, the economic report also learned that, as the market entered the downlink period, some housing enterprises had already reduced their business and laid down a layoff plan. People with housing prices say that some small housing companies may accelerate layoffs by the epidemic.

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