After The Epidemic, Will The Garment Industry Explode?

The new crown pneumonia epidemic during the Spring Festival in 2020 affected the hearts of millions of people. The state has adopted strong anti epidemic measures, and the counter cyclical policies for subsequent economic recovery have also been introduced. At present, public opinion is generally believed that the impact of the epidemic on the economy will be concentrated in the first quarter, which is highlighted by the collective shock of the retail, catering and tourism industries under the isolation and prevention measures.

According to preliminary estimates of the international top management consulting firm, Kearney, the epidemic will cause 1.5-3 trillion economic losses to the retail and catering industry in the first quarter. ?

Everything is his multifaceted nature. We have seen the destructive effect of the new crown pneumonia virus. He has done great harm to us, including the precious life of many of our compatriots, and our free travel during the Spring Festival.

No matter what economic costs we lose, we can not make up for the value of our lives. After the outbreak, we still have to live, work and live normally, but the social changes and ideological shocks caused by this epidemic will directly affect our country's economic and industrial structure, national consumption consciousness, and even changes in policy and legal system. These will profoundly change our lives in a long time.

Many people say that the epidemic will be like the SARS epidemic in 2003, the birth of a new generation of electric unicorns, such as Ali, Jingdong, such as electricity providers, electricity providers, online education will have an explosive growth, and even some people say that the epidemic makes many people see that life is short, it is necessary to indulge in pleasure, so online entertainment, real estate, online education, catering, you will have. The outbreak of explosive consumption, such an analysis really makes people laugh and cry.

The SARS in 2003, from the first Guangdong case in December 2002 to the first imported case in Beijing in March 2003, lasted for 8 months. The 4-5 months are the most serious. Because the mortality rate of SARS is high (fatality rate 11%), the degree of attack on the offline industry is very huge.

From the chart of changes in the growth rate of FMCG in 2003 compared with the same period last year, 4-5 months, the impact of "outbreak of emergencies" on such incidents is huge, and the result is "blocking the waist" and directly forming a "semi circle" that blocks economic development. But from the rebound consumption curve, there is no big bull market. And from the overall development of consumption trend curve, the ultimate economic development effect is average. Showing a trend that basically meets the consumer market trend, and did not appear retaliatory growth after the crash.

If logically explained, affected by epidemics, people choose to stay at home, do not buy things, do not go to entertainment, do not string up, and these consumer demands will be temporarily suppressed. Then, when the epidemic is over, the pressed demand will spring up like spring, and the more tightly pressed, the higher the bomb will be, so there will be a consumption frenzy.

We analyze rationally from several possibilities:

First, the end of the epidemic does not mean that one day, the announcement of the epidemic is over, and there is nothing left to do. We can revel in it. The end of the epidemic is a gradual process, from new suspected reduction to newly diagnosed reduction, to 0, and then to the recovery of all patients, the virus disappeared on the host, which requires a process.

Second, there is no suppression of basic consumer demand. For example, if we have to eat every day, is this demand suppressed? The basic survival is guaranteed, rice or to buy, vegetables or to buy, the food supermarkets have to sell, these needs themselves exist, continue, and has not been suppressed.

Third, the outbreak of consumption frenzy requires rapid rise in demand and a great increase in consumption capacity. The outbreak has caused some enterprises to fail to return to work in time, and can not resume work, which will affect production and thus affect supply. This will lead to a rise in commodity prices, which may be difficult to remove in the near future. Even at the end of the epidemic, the gap between supply and demand can not be compensated. Then we can think about whether the demand will rise rapidly after the price of the same commodity rises. Of course not.

What is the corresponding price increase? Affected by the epidemic, many people have no jobs for the time being, no income, no income, and how to increase their spending power. On the one hand, the rise in commodity prices and the decrease in disposable income will bring about a sharp rise in consumer demand.

Therefore, I do not think that there will be a consumption frenzy after the end of the epidemic. On the contrary, after the end of the epidemic, there is a process of economic recovery. It is also necessary for us to resume normal social activities and activities. In this process, the consumer industry will still be less fascinated. Only when the epidemic situation is over, will the production order be fully restored, and we will gradually forget this. After that, the demand for consumption will really rise.

In 2003, SARS attacked all parts of the country, almost all department stores and commercial streets were closed. Xing Jiaxing, the founder of La Natsu Bell, has made a retrograde policy: before he feels the end of the SARS crisis, he will use all resources and increase production, and then sell all his clothes at 70 percent off discount.

After the SARS crisis was lifted, we could not contain the persistent desire for consumption, and poured into the department store.

At this time, other clothing brands were too late to produce. Only La Natsu Bell had ample inventory and was hit by the 70 percent off super low discount by consumers. World War I became famous as the "shop king" in China's clothing industry.

There is no doubt that La Natsu Bell has been rescued from SARS by counter production in advance.

At that time, a reporter interviewed Xing Xing Xing: "Why then increase production?"

He smiled and said it was a gamble. If SARS died, no one would ask him to collect debts. If he recovered soon, he would be able to overtake himself.

But at that time, what time was it in 2003? At that time, the domestic electricity supplier was not yet fully mature. When SARS came, people could only go shopping under the supermarket, warehouse buying and shopping malls, and had not formed such a habit of large-scale online shopping, nor was it like today's live broadcast, small video and so on, so that SARS in 2003 was completely cut off. After 2 months, even in such a big economic environment, the economy rebounded a little.

If someone else said today that this year's clothing will rebound sharply after the outbreak of consumption, explosive growth, for this trend, everyone will have their own judgement, time will prove everything.

I firmly believe that everyone is healthy, free and beautiful, making his most rational choice.

As for the clothing industry, although the heart of beauty is common to all, it also depends on the specific financial planning. No matter what class consumers consume, they always have to eat vegetables and how much money they do.

Luxury: it is certain that after the outbreak, sales of luxury goods declined.

Commercial brand: some of its commercial brands for consumers, due to the impact of multi-channel sales of online channels and the entire social brand, the traditional commercial brand is not cost-effective, can buy or not buy, when their income has not increased, the impact of the epidemic has not yet gone, financial condition is not good premise, I believe many people will buy money, its trend one. It's good to be downhill or at most stable.

Fast fashion: for many fast fashion brands, will there be a trend of retaliatory growth? I think there may be a small range of growth, but the proportion will not be very large, and the time cycle will not last for a long time, because the fast fashion crowd is not low-income, that is, poor brand recognition, they are sensitive to price, especially for the immature consumers of consumer psychology, 20 The proportion of impulsive consumption will increase for young people around the age of 10, and the superposition of various factors will lead to a slight increase in the consumption of fast fashion brands.

Triggering the above three brand positioning sales growth is also affected by a key factor, that is, the normal operation of the supply chain. The epidemic has led to the resumption of the garment production and supply chain in Wuhan and even Hubei as a whole, and the ratio of reemployment rate and the release rate of production capacity is unknown. And Wuhan and Hubei are also provinces of China's fast fashion wholesale clothing production. In other provinces and cities, the normal supply chain will directly determine the sales, prices and profits of the first half of the year.

Half a month of consumption silence will make the whole consumption environment quiet. We've seen all kinds of shopping carnivals. Haven't you seen shopping meditation? Consumption needs a big environment. When people's psychological dependence and focus are not on consumption, this desire and motivation will be reduced. Even if a large number of people shop, the people next to them are not jealous and jealous, and their desire for consumption will be cold. Secondly, in the epidemic situation, people will have a new change in their consumption concept. They will pay more attention to financial management and health, so they will also cut down the bull market phenomenon of the consumer market to a greater extent.

This epidemic will undoubtedly affect the three consumer markets of catering consumption, tourism consumption and fast consumption. Secondly, there will be "online projects" in the entire field of subdivision, such as short video, live broadcast, knowledge payment, games, online education, "UAV transport logistics", and the development of cloud technology, such as cloud viewing and audio-visual cooperation, will usher in a great spring.

Now it seems that online education and office work are the focus of all people and enterprises. But I believe that many people are saying the same thing. But the trend is not the end. If you want to rush in, why do you occupy the commanding heights, so many people will become cannon fodder in the situation of live broadcast, online education and online office. I would like to advise you that there is no core advantage and competitiveness, and it is the best policy not to let the moths fly to the fire, to find their own way, or to do their essential work steadfastly.

Remember Buffett's famous investment motto?

When the aunt of selling vegetables is talking with you about the stock market's sun line and the Yin line, disaster is coming. Compared with the online live broadcasting and online education, it is unquestionable to be a learner. To be an operator, we need to think twice.

Apart from our clothing industry, the business trend of the whole society believes that many people are seeing more and more analysis and information in many media. Whether you believe or not believe in it depends on your own knowledge structure and judgement, but all social and economic development will only go one way: human nature needs.

As an enterprise, how to meet the needs of human nature and provide value-added services or products for them is the foundation of business operation.