Export volatility in the first three quarters is obvious.
End of the year "tail up" to help rebound
In the first three quarters, the Sino US trade and economic frictions were uncertain. The export of textile and clothing showed obvious fluctuations. The situation of monthly export growth and decline alternated until August. In the month of 9~11, as the United States extended tariffs to key commodity clothing and household textiles, exports continued to decline for three consecutive months. Quarterly exports saw a decline in exports from the first to the three quarter, the largest decline in the three quarter, reaching 3.2%. Imports were negatively affected by the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the obstruction of downstream exports and the decrease in demand. All quarters showed negative growth throughout the year, and even fell to two figures in the three quarter. At the end of the year, China's imports and exports rebounded substantially in the first half of the year, and exports increased by nearly 8%, and imports increased by 3.8%. The export growth in the four quarter was 0.8% and imports fell to 2.6%.
General trade exports accounted for a breakthrough of 80%.
The leading role of private enterprises is further enhanced.
In 2019, general trade exports amounted to 218 billion 780 million US dollars, down by only 0.45%, and export accounted for 80%, reaching 80.5%. The negative impact on overall exports was mainly processed trade (16.1%) and small border trade (10.5%), and the two accounted for 8.2% and 4% respectively. Since the second half of 2018, trade in the bonded area has gradually increased. The export of goods in the bonded area and the import and export trade of goods in the bonded zone have increased. The total growth in the second half of 2018 has increased by 1.1%, which is in contrast to 9% in the first half of the year. At the beginning of 2019, the State Council promulgated the "opinions on promoting the high level open and high-quality development of the comprehensive bonded zone", and put forward some suggestions for promoting the policy of the bonded area, expanding its functions, cultivating the new competitive advantages of the industry and business environment, and further promoting the growth of the trade in the bonded area. In 2019, the total export volume of textiles and garments in the bonded area was 6 billion 920 million US dollars, which increased by 28%. The overall leading role of private enterprises is further apparent. The proportion of exports continued to improve: the total private enterprises exported 196 billion 680 million US dollars in the whole year, accounting for 72.3% of total exports, representing a 1.3 percentage point increase compared to 2018. Export growth: private enterprises' exports increased by 0.3%, the only type of enterprises to achieve growth. In the same period, the export of state owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises decreased by 5.3% and 8.4% respectively, and the number of entrepreneurs continued to grow: the total number of private export enterprises reached 9.4, and 6600 more than in 2018. ? The three traditional markets are negative for exports.
ASEAN and other countries along the belt continue to grow.
European union: Multiple factors led to a lack of market momentum and a decline in European clothing exports. Economic growth is slow (according to IMF, the growth rate of the EU's total economic growth in 2019 is only about 1.4%), the delay in Britain's withdrawal from Europe, the sluggish manufacturing industry in Germany and the trade frictions between Europe and the United States caused the EU market to remain depressed. In my four major export markets of textile and clothing, the EU market's warmer is the most difficult to expect. In 2019, I exported $47 billion 250 million to the EU, down 4.7%. Textile exports dropped by 1%, and clothing for key export commodities dropped by 6.1%. The export volume of large category needles and woven garments has been continuously reduced since 2015, down by 3.6% (about 250 million pieces) in 2019, and the export average price dropped by 3.4%. Britain's devaluation of European exports has led to repeated market uncertainty. In 2019, exports to Britain continued to decline, a drop of 7.4%, which was greater than the overall decline in exports to the EU. According to the statistics of the European Union statistics bureau, In 2019, the European Union imported textiles and clothing from the world for 136 billion 820 million US dollars, down 1.4%, and imports from China 44 billion 470 million US dollars, down 3.1%. Imports from ASEAN and Bangladesh increased by 3.7% and 2.1% respectively. U.S.A: The trade war has seriously affected our exports, and exports are the biggest drop in ten years. The United States is the largest single export market of my textile and clothing. Its huge volume and sustained and stable market demand have always been the "stabilizer" and "ballast stone" of my export. During the ten years of 2009~2018, the scale of exports to the US textile and garment industry continued to expand, with an average annual growth rate of 7.1%. Since the US launched the trade war in 2018, the good situation has been broken, and Chinese manufacturers and exporters have been seriously affected. In 2018, due to the levy duty time in the second half of the year, the products were limited to textiles and a very small number of clothing products, and the early export of enterprises did not have a serious impact on the export of the whole year. In 2019, the US side intensified its efforts to raise the tariff rate from 200 billion to 25% for the US $10% product (mainly textiles). It also imposed a 15% tariff on the key clothing and home textiles that I lost to the US. (at the end of the year, China and the United States reached the first stage agreement, which stipulated that the tax rates of LIST 4A and LIST 4B products were reduced to 7.5% and 0 respectively), resulting in a serious decline in exports to the US in those years. Exports to the United States for the whole year were 45 billion 210 million US dollars, down 7.7%, the largest decline in the past ten years. Among them, textiles dropped by 9.1 and clothing decreased by 7.1%. The total export volume of needle woven garments of goods decreased by 5.5% and the export average price by 1.8%. As of December 31, 2019, the office of the United States trade representative issued a total of 7 out of the list of $200 billion tax products. Among them, there are 26 10 HS tax numbers involving textile and clothing products, which account for a very low proportion of exports to the United States. According to the statistics of the US Department of Commerce, In 2019, the United States imported textiles and clothing from the world for 122 billion 700 million US dollars, an increase of 0.04%, of which 40 billion 140 million was imported from China, which dropped by 9.2%. Imports from ASEAN, India and Bangladesh increased by 8.2%, 4.4% and 9.1% respectively. ASEAN: ASEAN has maintained a positive pulling effect on our export growth, and the market structure of the alliance has shown signs of transformation. ASEAN is at a relatively mature and stable stage of development in the areas that undertake the transfer of China's textile industry. Through the integration and collaboration with our industry, the transition from single downstream product processing to the production of upstream products has gradually made the bilateral trade relationship between China and ASEAN closer. In 2019, bilateral trade in textiles and clothing reached 46 billion 380 million US dollars, an increase of 2.9%, of which China's exports increased by 2.3% and imports increased by 6%, which were better than the overall level. Among them, the yarn and fabric of key export commodities increased by 1.7% and 4% respectively. Clothing exports have declined. The market structure of ASEAN countries presents new characteristics: Vietnam, which has shown prominence in previous years, has begun to restrict the textile industry's local investment because of its nearly saturation of its industry. In 2019, my total exports to Vietnam decreased by 6%, of which the export of key commodity yarn fabrics remained 2.7%, but the growth rate was significantly smaller than that of last year. Vietnam's share of exports has also declined from 5.8% last year to 5.5%. At the same time, other ASEAN countries, such as Philippines and Indonesia, will further expand the construction of the local textile industry and speed up the capacity to undertake spillovers from China Vietnam. Japan: Exports to Japan fell less than the European Union and the United States, and clothing export prices rebounded. Compared with the European Union and the United States, the Japanese market in 2019 was still relatively stable although it did not recover. Exports to Japan for the whole year were 19 billion 900 million US dollars, down 4.67%, less than exports to the European Union and the United States. Exports of Japanese textiles to US $4 billion 510 million, down 2%, clothing exports 15 billion 390 million US dollars, down 5.4%. As Japan increased its consumption tax again (from 8% to 10%) in that year, it led to a further contraction in consumption and a 6.7% drop in the total export volume of needle woven garments for Japanese commodities. It is worth mentioning that The unit price of Japanese exported clothing products has been rising for two consecutive years. In 2019, the average export price of knitted woven garments increased by 1.7% over the same period last year, which is better than that of the European Union and the US market. According to Japan's Ministry of finance statistics, in 2019, Japanese textile and apparel imports from the world 38 billion 730 million US dollars, down 1.5%, of which 21 billion 420 million from China's imports, down 5.6%, and 5.4% from ASEAN imports. The global layout has driven the Asian and African markets to keep warm, and the market position of the "along the way" along the line has been further enhanced. With the recovery of the world's major economies slow and the US tax increase on exports, the performance of the traditional market is not satisfactory. But at the same time, along with my "going global" layout and the speed of industrial transfer, Africa and Asia became the main areas of positive export to China in 2019. In those days, I increased 8.7% and 1.3% respectively. The single fastest growing countries were Philippines (6.6% growth) and Nigeria (37% growth). Under the impetus of the "one belt and one way" Cooperation Initiative, the market position of the countries along the belt and road has been increasing in the foreign trade of our textile and clothing industry, and become a bright spot in my export. In 2019, my exports to the countries along the border reached 98 billion 460 million US dollars, an increase of 3.4%, better than the overall level, and the market share rose to 36.2%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points over last year. The region of export growth is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Western Asia and Central Asia. China's share of the US market has drastically reduced. 。 Under the influence of global unilateralism and industrial transfer, the share of Chinese products in the main developed countries' market continues to decline. In 2019, the share of Chinese products in the EU textile and apparel market dropped to 32.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last year, and its share in the Japanese market dropped to 55.3%, down 2.4 percentage points from last year. The relatively stable US market suffered the most serious drop in share because of the imposed tariff, which dropped to 32.7% in that year, down 3.4 percentage points from last year. The market share of clothing dropped to 30.6%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points, and the appearance of yarn and fabrics declined, accounting for 16.1% and 26.6% respectively, down 12.3 and 7.7 percentage points respectively. In the US market, China's market share was basically filled by competitors from ASEAN, India and Bangladesh. Exports of intermediate products have gradually expanded.
Chemical fiber products are negatively affected.
Despite the negative export growth throughout the year, the trend of improving the structure of textile and clothing export has not changed. Textile exports accounted for 44.2% in 2019, 1.2 percentage points more than last year, 1% in exports, 55.8% in clothing exports and 4.1% in exports. With the gradual deepening of the integration with the world economy and trade, China has been developing rapidly as the leader and leader of the whole industrial chain in the textile and garment industry. In 2019, the total export of yarn fabrics was 73 billion 290 million US dollars, the proportion of total exports increased year by year, from 22.2% in 2014 to 27%, and five percentage points increased by nearly 5 percentage points. In the case of a decline in overall exports, the total export volume of yarn fabrics increased by 1.2%, of which 2.4% was mainly driven by fabric growth. From the analysis of volume and price index, textile export growth mainly depends on quantity expansion, and export prices drop. The decline in clothing exports is characterized by volume and price, and the decline is more obvious. The total export volume of needles and woven garments decreased by 3.1% and export prices by 2.1%. Judging from the material of yarn, fabric and needle woven garments export products, the export of chemical fiber products ranks first, accounting for nearly half of the total share. Cotton products account for 30%, and wool and silk products account for about 20%. In 2019, exports of all kinds of material products decreased, wool and silk products dropped the most, cotton products decreased by 7.5%, and chemical fiber products were relatively good, with a slight decrease of 0.02%, basically unchanged. Exports of eastern provinces show differences.
Sustained and stable development in the central region
In 2019, in the case of a decline in the country's overall exports, Zhejiang ranked first in terms of export growth for third consecutive years, an increase of 1.6%. In the top five provinces and cities, the growth rate of Fujian was 6.4%, while that of Jiangsu, Shandong and Guangdong declined. Guangdong's exports declined for four consecutive years, with a drop of 9%. Regionalization, the central region's exports continued to grow steadily and increased by 9.1%, of which Hunan, Anhui, Hubei and other places were the main areas to stimulate growth, especially in Hunan Province, with an annual export growth of 60%. Exports in the eastern and western regions and in the three northeastern provinces decreased by 2.2%, 7.6% and 5.4% respectively. Import and export prices of textiles fell.
Clothing imports keep growing
In 2019, the RMB exchange rate experienced a process of "first appreciation, then depreciation, and two-way volatility". At the beginning of August, "breaking 7" was at its weakest point close to the 7.20 pass. The central parity of RMB against the US dollar has been derogated by 1130 basis points throughout the year, with a 1.65% reduction. Under the dual pressure of RMB weakening and economic and trade frictions, textile and garment imports continued to decline in 2019, with negative growth for seven consecutive months in 5~11 months, and 5.8% decline in imports throughout the year. The decline was mainly caused by textiles, with textiles falling by 12.2%. Among them, major categories of yarn and fabric decreased by 13.7% and 14.2% respectively, falling to two digits, and finished products by 6%. From the analysis of volume and price index, the decline of textile imports is the result of the falling of volume and price, and the reduction factor is more prominent. From the perspective of material quality, the import of cotton yarn fabrics decreased by 15.8%, higher than that of wool products (15.3%), chemical fiber products and silk products (8.7%). Clothing imports continued to grow, an increase of 8%. Among them, the largest category of needles and woven garments increased by 10.5% from the import price, and the import volume decreased by 2.4%. The import of intermediate products, especially yarn and fabric, has a significant correlation with the export of textile and clothing in the following year. According to the simple calculation of import and export data in the past 20 years, the correlation coefficient between the import amount of yarn and fabric and the export volume of textile and clothing in the next year reached 0.86, showing a more obvious positive correlation. The sharp decline in import of yarn fabrics in 2019 may indicate that textile and garment exports continued to decline in 2020. US cotton imports fell sharply.
The United States has lost its market position for many years.
In 2019, China imported 1 million 851 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of 17.5%, and it has resumed growth for third consecutive years. The average import price was 1930 US dollars / ton, down 4.1% compared to the same period last year. Despite the overall growth in the whole year, monthly data show that growth is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, which is subject to tax increases in Sino US economic and trade frictions. 8~10 textile market weakened in the month, downstream demand reduced, cotton imports reduced, imports less than 100 thousand tons per month. At the end of the year 11~12, China's import and export rebounded slightly after the good agreement between China and the US signed the agreement. Since July 6, 2018, I implemented counter measures against the United States and imposed 25% tariffs on raw materials imported from the United States. Cotton imports from the United States increased by 4.5% during the year. In 2019, the impact of counter measures further revealed that only 360 thousand tons of imports were imported from the United States, a sharp decrease of 32% over the same period last year. In the main source country of cotton imports, the United States quickly lost its leading position for many years, lagging behind the substitutes Brazil and Australia. (Brazil and Australia imported 505 thousand tons and 398 thousand tons respectively) Imported cotton prices were higher than domestic cotton prices in March. According to the monthly report of China Cotton Association, in 2019, China's cotton policy remained stable, the rotation of cotton reserves was orderly, the import volume increased, the output of cotton was stable and slightly decreased, the market supply was abundant, and the demand for cotton decreased, and domestic cotton prices fell sharply under the influence of external uncertainties. Since May, with the repeated economic and trade frictions between China and the United States, the spot price of cotton has fallen sharply. After that, the price of China's cotton importing and Sino US trade negotiation has been rising steadily. In December 31st, China's cotton price index CC Index (3128B) was 13369 yuan / ton, the annual average price was 14212 yuan / ton, down 10.5% compared with the same period last year. International cotton prices have risen. At the end of October, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times during the year, and the international cotton futures and spot prices rose. At the end of the month, the spot price of cotton exceeded cotton prices in the domestic market, and lasted until the end of the year. At the end of 12, China imported cotton price index FC Index M at the end of the month was 79.47 cents / pound, 1% tariff discount 13724 yuan / ton, higher than the domestic spot 355 yuan in the same period.
