Early Warning! The Global Spread Of The Epidemic Is Likely To Be More Severe This Year Than Last Year.

At the beginning of the year, a sudden outbreak disrupted the deployment of everyone. But the good news is that we have achieved a periodic victory in the block campaign of national mobilization.

The number of confirmed cases of newly diagnosed crown pneumonia in Hubei continued to decline, except for the 11 cases in February 23rd. In addition, there were no new cases in Macao for 17 days. Yesterday, 25 provinces and cities in China (including the Corps), including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, achieved a "0 growth" record. This figure is encouraging.

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But while the outbreak of domestic outbreaks is being gradually controlled and the number of people diagnosed daily is getting smaller and fewer, the outbreak of Japan and South Korea as Chinese neighbors suddenly broke out.

In Japan, as of 21:20 pm local time, there were 838 confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in Japan, including 133 people infected in Japan and 133 Chinese tourists, 691 passengers and crew members of the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship and 14 people in Japan.

South Korea, South Korea's new crown pneumonia epidemic continues to spread. South Korea's central epidemic prevention strategy headquarters announced 25 days. As of 9 a.m. local time, South Korea increased 60 cases of new crown pneumonia cases at 4 p.m. the previous day, and 893 cases were confirmed.

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Even more frightening is that in Japan and South Korea, the epidemic has not even caused due attention, the local did not take effective measures to control the spread of the epidemic, but there is a head buried in the ostrich mentality, was ridiculed by Chinese netizens, "copy homework can not copy".

In addition, in addition to Japan and South Korea, Iran, Italy, Canada and other countries have also found a new type of coronavirus infection, especially in Iran, the number of 43 confirmed cases has reached 8, with a mortality rate of 18%. Xiaobian can not help thinking that the final battle to overcome the epidemic is still a long way to go.

Outbreak of foreign trade, foreign trade orders or affected

For the textile market, the main contradiction at this stage is the backlog of demand and the slow recovery of production capacity, which leads to orders on the market, but almost all textile people are afraid to pick up.

But as time went on, workers resumed their jobs one after another, regardless of the starting rate of looms or the capacity of subsequent dyeing and finishing.

Xiaobian originally judged that when the domestic epidemic was controlled, the backlog of demand in the foreign trade market was released, which coincided with the production capacity, and there might be a wave of orders.

But from the current situation, things do not seem to be developing in anticipation.

Although China's epidemic has been gradually controlled, outbreaks of foreign diseases are erupting. Next, take Japan and Korea, the most serious ones, except China.

In 2019, China's textile exports to Japan amounted to US $19 billion 900 million, which is the fourth largest textile outlet except the European Union, ASEAN and the United States. Besides the textiles directly imported from China, a large part of Japan's textiles are sold from China to ASEAN countries, and then made by ASEAN countries before they are sold into garments, so the actual market will be larger than that of 19 billion 900 million dollars.

The Korean market is smaller than Japan, but in 2019 1-6, China exported 2 billion 740 million dollars of textiles to South Korea.

Unfortunately, at present, Japan and South Korea treat the new coronavirus with a slight laissez faire attitude. The prospect of epidemic control in the future seems not optimistic. Once the outbreak occurs, the demand for textiles in the region will be greatly affected.

The original expectations of the future are based on the fact that there are no obvious changes in the foreign market, but the problem now is that with the outbreak of foreign epidemic in the future, the foundation of the market has changed quietly.

Last year, the overall market situation of the textile industry was poor. The main reason was the Sino US trade friction and overcapacity. If China's epidemic situation is controlled soon, and weaving and fabric production capacity will recover quickly, it is necessary to have enough market to digest these huge capacity.

But if the demand for the main textile market is decreasing due to the epidemic situation, the affected market will be more than simply an American last year. The problem of overcapacity will become more prominent. At that time, the high inventory of weaving, throwing goods, unloading goods and early holidays may happen again.

Some suggestions for textile foreign trade enterprises

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Focus on domestic trade

Under the influence of Sino US trade friction in 2019, the export of Chinese textiles has been hit hard. China, as a developing market with 1 billion 300 million population, has the greatest potential in the world.

The current situation is that although the number of new coronaviruses in China is the largest in the world, in the long run, under effective control measures, the epidemic in China in the future may become the first to be extinguished.

Although China's textile market is full of competition, it is also the most stable and unlimited market. Therefore, when the foreign market is blocked, it will be a choice to transfer part of the energy to the domestic market.

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Do a good job in wind control and make careful orders.

Almost all the textile people have never met with this epidemic situation, so it is more necessary to leave one thing to mind.

In the face of the rapid spread of the epidemic in Japan and Korea, customers must take into account the future situation. In February, there was a case where Chinese enterprises chose to use the force majeure clause to exempt the contract because of the outbreak. If there was a foreign outbreak, there would be a great probability that such a situation would happen again.

Editor's note: Although the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled under the joint efforts of the whole nation, the epidemic situation abroad has gone out of trend. As a result, China's textile industry may be transformed from capacity shortage to overcapacity in the future.