Judging From The Textile Market: This Epidemic Will Affect The Global Economy!

Recently, China's major textile clusters have been opened, and China's textile market is slowly recovering. Looking at it, can the economic impact of this epidemic be estimated?

Looking back to the earliest public, in December 2019, a new type of coronavirus was first discovered in Wuhan in China. At that time, few people could imagine that it would affect China as a whole. About two months later, the prediction of the major institutions is that the global economy will slow down again, because the epidemic has led to a slowdown in Global trade.

Global spread of the epidemic and lack of support in the textile market

Recently, cotton spot trading is lighter, and the overall price rise in cotton market is insufficient. In February 26th, domestic cotton 3128B quoted 13342 yuan / ton, down 23 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and the closing price of zhengmian 05 contract was 12805 yuan / ton, down 210 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.

The cotton yarn market turnover increased earlier than before, and prices were more stable. Most of the textile enterprises still failed to resume production normally, and some of the shipments were still in abnormal state. At present, Shandong produces C32S jet quality short distance arrival 20800 yuan / ton; Xinjiang high production compact spinning C32S belt ticket arrives 22000 yuan / ton; Shandong produces C40S high belt ticket to arrive goods 21800 yuan / ton.

Weaving factory, due to effective control of domestic epidemic, logistics has resumed, textile mill inventory pressure gradually decreased, but new orders are still not ideal, most small textile factory said recently no transaction, or to wait until March fully re looked.

At present, it is still necessary to accumulate the time for the upstream and downstream markets to turn better, and the spread of the epidemic abroad will affect global consumption. In the short term, the market situation will not be able to support the textile economy.

The epidemic affects the global economic community.

China is the second largest economy and the largest trade and manufacturing country in the world. It is natural that anything affecting China's economy will be directly reflected in the global economy. Due to the spread of early disease, China has adopted a full range of control, and the supply chain of various industries has been temporarily interrupted due to the postponed operation of the factory.

Therefore, it is prudent for major institutions and economists to predict China and even the global economy.

Reuters (Reuters), an economist surveyed in from February 7th to 13th, said the Chinese economy, which was hit by a coronavirus, will grow at the lowest level since the financial crisis. 40 economists in mainland China, Hongkong, Singapore and Europe and the United States predict that China's annual economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 will fall to 4.5% from 6% in the previous quarter. Economists, however, are optimistic that the economy will rebound in the second quarter.

The impact of the new crown virus will take some time to appear in trade statistics. According to WTO's barometer of merchandise trade in February 17th, the growth of world merchandise trade in early 2020 may still be weak. The real time measure of trade trends was 95.5, down from 96.6 in November last year, far below the baseline value of 100. WTO said: "it does not consider recent developments, such as the outbreak of the new crown virus, which may further reduce trade prospects."

Meanwhile, the international petroleum Agency (IEA)'s oil market report (OMR) said global oil demand fell for the first time in ten years. The February report said: "global oil demand has been hit hard by the widespread closure of the new crown virus and the Chinese economy. Demand is expected to drop by 435 thousand barrels per day in the first quarter, the first quarterly contraction in more than 10 years. We have cut the growth forecast in 2020 by 365 thousand barrels per day to 825 thousand barrels per day, the lowest level since 2011. "

In February 13th, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) said that the number of foreign airlines directly travelling to China had decreased by eighty percent, while that of Chinese airlines decreased by 40% because of international flights between China and the mainland. It points out that the impact of the new crown virus is greater than the impact of SARS in 2003, given the increase in the number of flights cancelled and the global expansion. Seasonal passenger capacity is another factor that can be mitigated because China's international air traffic has doubled since 2003, and domestic passenger traffic has increased by five times.

Asia's economic impact has been most pronounced so far. South Korea has called for urgent measures, and Singapore and Thailand and Malaysia have lowered their growth prospects this year. Japan's economy is also shrinking. Major auto makers TOYOTA (Toyota) and Nissan (Nissan) reported that production failures in factories in China and in Japan have occurred.

Although the new crown virus has not yet been declared a pandemic by WHO, this possibility still exists. A World Bank study in 2013 once said, "a serious pandemic is like a sudden, profound and extensive global war." Therefore, a serious epidemic may cause an economic loss of nearly 5% of the gross domestic product of the whole world, or more than US $3 trillion.

Behind the huge numbers, there is a deeper level of thinking. The upstream and downstream, the supply chain and the global economy are all communities. How to think and layout the development of China's textile industry under the current epidemic situation?

Relevant professionals give an analysis, and the textile industry must continue to transform and upgrade, so as to realize the high quality development goal of "innovation driven technology industry, culture led fashion industry and responsibility oriented green industry".

In terms of scientific and technological innovation, the development and extension of key fiber new materials and intelligent manufacturing related technologies, and the expansion of new application fields of industrial textiles are still the focus of development.

In terms of fashion development, meeting the constantly rising domestic consumption demand is the fundamental starting point for the development of the textile industry, and better understanding the consumption needs of the domestic consumer groups in terms of spirit, culture, aesthetics, health and self-confidence.

In terms of green manufacturing, we should further expand the research and development of green key technologies in textile industry, develop and promote related technologies of fiber recycling, and promote the whole society to gradually establish the values of green consumption of textiles and garments.

The consumption demand of textile and clothing and the demand for industrial textiles needed by national construction and development are the foundation and support for the development of the textile industry in China. 1 billion 400 million people are affected by the current economic situation at home and abroad. There may be some fluctuations in the operation and development of the textile industry, but the overall trend is definitely developing, and the process of development is also accompanied by the adjustment of the industrial structure. Continuous progress.

Experts call for the hope that the process of structural adjustment in textile industry can be supported by policies, financial support and social understanding. It is also hoped that the society will reconsider the present situation of textile industry with the vision of development, and enhance the propaganda of the new image of the textile industry. The textile industry is not only a livelihood industry supporting consumption and promoting employment, but also a pillar industry in the industrial category. It is an export competitive industry with international competitiveness, and also an important industry in the development of technology application and fashion.