"Gold Three" Has Arrived, And The Textile Industry Is Gradually Warming Up When The Epidemic Is Stabilizing.

Despite the recent expansion of the new crown epidemic situation abroad, the situation in Japan, Korea, Iran, Italy and other countries is not optimistic, but from the domestic situation, the new crown epidemic situation has been gradually controlled in China. At present, the overall trend of the national epidemic is good and the results are significant. In addition to Hubei, many other provinces have reported zero cases of new cases for several days. With the accelerating pace of the resumption of industrial chain upstream and downstream, and the polyester market will gradually pick up, what is the actual situation of the current recovery rhythm? Can the market demand usher in a retaliatory rebound after the outbreak?

1. Terminal impact summary during epidemics

The impact of the epidemic on polyester industry chain is more in two aspects, namely, the inhibition of terminal consumption and the delay of downstream start-up delay.

First, the terminal textile industry as a labor-intensive industry, during the Spring Festival, most of them stopped working, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and bombs dropped to 10% and below. In accordance with the progress of the previous year's resumption, after the resumption of work, it will reach 30% of the operation rate in about 7-10 days, and the latter half month will rise from 30% to 70%. But this year, because the clothing market is affected by the epidemic, and last year the grey cloth is in high inventory (about 40 days). Since the textile city began to resume work in February 18th, the turnover was about 1 million meters in the week, compared with 10 million meters under normal conditions. Loom load rise is blocked. During the Spring Festival, weaving started almost zero, and after resuming work for two weeks, it started less than 10%.

Second, due to the slow lifting load of terminal looms, the demand for polyester products is further delayed, resulting in the increase of polyester start-up rate later than expected. Polyester products are in a state of no market price for a long time, and the production and sale of polyester products only start second weeks after resuming work, but as of March 2nd, the turnover was still around 2-3. Book cash flow is hard to cash in. The upstream raw materials of polyester are mostly integrated and intensive production mode. The upstream raw material production is less affected by the epidemic. The deviation between the supply side and the demand side has increased the contradiction between supply and demand, resulting in the over expected storage of raw materials inventory. According to the current situation, it is estimated that in March, PTA social inventory will be exhausted to around 3 million tons.

Third, from February to date, the polyester market is generally traded, and production and marketing remain light. As of March 2nd, the production and sales of polyester products are around 2-3. Under normal circumstances, polyester production and marketing shows a pulse shape. It is expected that the time of returning to this kind of pulse will also be around mid March, but the focus of production and marketing is slower than previous years.

2, textile market recovery

Up to now, two major markets in the three major markets have resumed, but the China textile business circle is still not open for a time limit. China Textile City has been in a closed market for the longest 5 years from January 18th to February 18th due to the delay of resumption. In the past Spring Festival, the textile city generally opened in the early eighth, but this year it was postponed for 18 days. As of February 27th, China's textile city had 17320 business restores, and the recovery rate reached 79.6%. But volume recovery rate is relatively slow. In the same period last year, after the first month of fifteen, the volume of light textile city returned to about 10 million meters in about 18 days. In the 18 year, the turnover from opening to 9 million to 17 took a total of 17 days. This year, due to the resumption of work in batches and flexible business after the start, the market opening time is tentatively scheduled to be 10:00-16:00 per day (the normal business hours are 7:30 a.m. - 5 p.m.). It will take longer to recover to a normal level of about 10 million meters. Judging from the volume growth of last week and this week, it will take about a month to recover to an average of around 10 million meters according to the progress of the resumption.

The Eastern Silk Market of Shengze was officially opened in February 21st. From the opening day of the first day, the market operators met the rate of resumption of work and the market rate reached 80%. The global textile merchants have been able to come to the procurement negotiations and basically resume their work at the end of February.

The textile business circle of China University is still open for a period of time. The reason is that there are 59 professional markets in China and nearly 2.3 merchants, with a total number of 150 thousand people, of whom 52 thousand are from Hubei. Therefore, its resumption and resumption of production depends on the development of the epidemic in Hubei. But the market also indicated that it could be decided by the situation of prevention and control, and could make preparations for the resumption of work and production in an orderly way.

3. The recovery rate of the starting up rate of elastic weaving.

At present, Taicang, Changshu, Cixi, Changxin and other areas have increased the number of re loading factories, but the rate of resumption of enterprises is generally dissatisfied, basically 5 below the level. The main reasons are: the low rate of workers arriving at posts, insufficient supply of paper and paperboard for auxiliary materials, and low operation rate of weaving and dyeing. As of 28 days, the operation rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been raised to 33%, and the comprehensive commencement rate has increased to 21%. Except for the Spring Festival shutdown, the average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 70%-80% in the peak season, and 60%-70% in the off-season. The overall commencement rate is generally 80%-90% and the off-season is 60%-80%. After the resumption of work in the past few years, the work rate basically reached half of the second weeks after the resumption of work, and returned to the average level in the peak season after 4 weeks. This year, due to the different epidemic situation in different provinces, the resumption of work is progressively advancing. Judging from the current situation, the negative speed or further speed up of the March increased elasticity. It is expected that the average level will return to peak season by early April.

4, downstream polyester recovery

Downstream polyester has recently been restarted. Polyester load has risen to 64.1% from 59.5%. And the load increase is expected to gradually increase.

Due to the collapse of the crude oil cost terminal, the cash flow level of polyester products is higher. But because of the low turnover, the high cash flow of books is hard to cash in. The stock days of POY, FDY and DTY are about 28-37 days, and the stock pressure of polyester factories is relatively large. This is also the main reason for the recent polyester factories to take price promotions. The turning point of polyester products may appear in the next two weeks.

The change of polyester load has a direct impact on the demand of polyester raw materials: 2 monthly load is 61%-62%, and polyester production is near 3 million tons. As the polyester plant has been restarted, it is estimated that the monthly output of polyester in 3 and April will be 3 million 843 thousand tons and 4 million 430 thousand tons respectively. In March, it is expected that the reemployment rate will exceed the end of February. In the 3 and April seasons, it is expected that the polyester load will return to normal level at the end of March. However, due to the missed one month's peak season, April or a large-scale polyester stock removal process, the overall inventory level still can not be digested to normal level.

5. Future expectations

In the late stage, the overseas epidemic continued to ferment, crude oil storage continued to decline, and PTA and ethylene glycol increased by polyester and terminal weaving load relatively slowly. Next week or will be weak and shock. On the supply side, to control the finished product inventory, the polyester filament factory will slow down its load lifting speed, but there is no substantial improvement in domestic demand at this time. Limited trade, and foreign trade, the spread of the disease makes the demand for foreign trade in the late stage uncertain. Therefore, it is expected that the later polyester filament factory will still take preferential delivery and reduce inventory policy.